NFL Playoff Picture Week 14: Breaking Down AFC and NFC Postseason Outlook
The AFC playoff picture is so tight that a handful of results in one week could shake up the entire standings.
That happened after Sunday’s results in Week 13, as the Buffalo Bills catapulted from a wild-card position to the No. 1 seed.
Buffalo sat at home Sunday and watched the Cincinnati Bengals beat the Kansas City Chiefs and the Miami Dolphins lose to the San Francisco 49ers.
Those two results allowed Buffalo to land the top seed going into Week 14
The NFC playoff standings did not experience much change. The Philadelphia Eagles, Minnesota Vikings and 49ers held serve with wins at the top.
The only change occurred when the Seattle Seahawks jumped the Washington Commanders for the final wild-card spot because of Washington’s tie with the New York Giants.
AFC Playoff Picture
1 of 2
Division Leaders
1. Buffalo (9-3)
2. Kansas City (9-3)
3. Baltimore (8-4)
4. Tennessee (7-5)
Wild-Card Race
5. Cincinnati (8-4)
6. Miami (8-4)
7. New York Jets (7-5)
8. New England (6-6)
9. Los Angeles Chargers (6-6)
10. Las Vegas (5-7)
11. Cleveland (5-7)
12. Pittsburgh (5-7)
The Buffalo Bills hold all of the power in the AFC now.
Buffalo owns a head-to-head win over the second-place Kansas City Chiefs and it can level its head-to-head series with the Miami Dolphins by way of a Week 15 victory at home.
Josh Allen and Co. have games versus the New York Jets in Week 14 and at the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 17 that will directly affect the AFC standings as well.
Buffalo’s easiest path to the top seed is to win out, but at minimum, it needs to win its three remaining AFC East games to win the division.
Kansas City might be the favorite to land the top seed because it faces the Denver Broncos twice in the next four weeks and plays the Houston Texans in Week 15.
The Chiefs have a more realistic path to winning out than the Bills do. The other two games come against the Seattle Seahawks and Las Vegas Raiders.
The AFC North battle might come down to Week 18, when the Baltimore Ravens visit the Cincinnati Bengals.
Cincy appears to have the edge because Joe Burrow is healthy and it has momentum from beating Kansas City. Baltimore might be without Lamar Jackson for multiple games because of a knee injury.
Miami and the Jets face each other in Week 18 as well. That game could be for a wild-card position.
Miami can clear up the mess beneath it and the Jets by beating the Los Angeles Chargers and New England Patriots in two of their next four games.
The Chargers must beat Miami next week to remain in contention for a wild-card spot. They don’t have to play the Chiefs again, and all five of their games, including home matchups with Miami and Tennessee in the next two weeks, are winnable.
New England’s season-ending stretch against Cincinnati, Miami and Buffalo could doom its wild-card chase. The teams below .500 in the AFC need a lot of help to make it into the conversation after Week 15.
NFC Playoff Picture
2 of 2
Division Leaders
1. Philadelphia (11-1)
2. Minnesota (10-2)
3. San Francisco (8-4)
4. Tampa Bay (5-6)
Wild-Card Race
5. Dallas (9-3)
6. New York Giants (7-4-1)
7. Seattle (7-5)
8. Washington (7-5-1)
9. Detroit (5-7)
10. Green Bay (5-8)
11. Atlanta (5-8)
The Eagles, Vikings and 49ers remained in the top three NFC spots.
Philadelphia blew out the Titans at home and held on to what is really a two-game lead on Minnesota because of its Week 2 win over the Vikings.
Minnesota needs help from two of the Eagles’ next five opponents just to have a sniff of the top seed.
The Vikings have three potentially tricky road games against each of their three NFC North rivals, as well as home games with the Indianapolis Colts and New York Giants, left on their schedule.
At minimum, Minnesota will win its division because of the five-gave lead over Detroit in second place.
San Francisco is up by one game on Seattle and may face difficulties in the coming weeks with Brock Purdy in at quarterback for the injured Jimmy Garoppolo.
The Week 15 Thursday night battle between San Francisco and Seattle could shift the balance of power in the NFC West.
Tampa Bay could create an insurmountable lead in the NFC South if it beats New Orleans on Monday and then the 49ers next week.
The wild-card race is likely down to two spots with the Dallas Cowboys 1.5 games in front of their closest competition.
The tie between the New York Giants and Washington Commanders might complicate things once the number of games played is the same after Washington’s Week 14 bye.
The two NFC East sides play again in Week 15, and the winner of that game will earn the head-to-head tiebreaker edge.
Detroit, Green Bay and Atlanta are all holding on to small slivers of hope to reach the playoffs. They need at least one of the top four wild-card teams to go on a multigame losing streak soon.
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