Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 12: Advice for Unfavorable Fantasy Football Matchups
The good news for fantasy managers is that no NFL teams are on bye in Week 12. The bad news is that some key fantasy players have difficult matchups this week.
With the fantasy postseason right around the corner, managers can ill afford to make lineup mistakes now. The challenge, of course, is to know which players can be trusted in bad matchups and which must be avoided.
Must-start players like Jalen Hurts and Travis Kelce should never come out of the starting lineup, but of course, not all decisions are that simple.
Below, you'll find a look at four of the toughest matchups of Week 12, and our verdicts on who to sit and who to start. All choices are based on point-per-reception (PPR) scoring.
Sit 'Em: Aaron Rodgers at Philadelphia Eagles
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Over the past two seasons, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers has been a must-start in fantasy regardless of the opponent—he won back-to-back MVP awards for a reason. However, this has not been the case in 2022.
Rodgers has been merely serviceable most weeks, partly because of a lack of reliable receiving options and perhaps due to injury. Rodgers said this week that he's been playing with a broken thumb, according to ESPN's Rob Demovsky—though he added that it's not a huge deal.
"It doesn't make a difference with me playing," Rodgers said, per Demovsky.
Healthy or not, Rodgers is an unsafe start against the Philadelphia Eagles. Philadelphia has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in 2022, an average of just 10.6.
Rodgers is coming off a respectable 227-yard, two-touchdown performance against a bad Tennessee Titans secondary. However, his numbers are likely to be much, much worse against the Eagles.
Start 'Em: Samaje Perine at Tennessee Titans
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Cincinnati Bengals running back Samaje Perine has never been considered a must-start, and, in fact, he's not even in a ton of fantasy lineups. According to FantasyPros, he's rostered in only 56 percent of Yahoo leagues and 25 percent of ESPN leagues.
Yet Perine could land in a lot of lineups by Sunday, as Cincinnati starter Joe Mixon has been ruled out with a concussion, according to Kelsey Conway of the Cincinnati Enquirer. With Mixon out, Perine should see the bulk of the backfield work.
Trusting the backup-turned-starter won't be easy, though, as the Titans have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs this season. Perine wasn't particularly effective (2.7 yards per carry) running the ball in Week 11 after Mixon exited, either.
However, we're inclined to give Perine the nod based on his projected workload and his PPR floor. He has caught 16 passes over his last six games and caught four for 52 yards and three touchdowns last Sunday.
Don't expect Perine to find the end zone multiple times, but he should see 50-plus scrimmage yards and at least 3-4 receptions. Consider Perine a serviceable flex option or a fine fill-in for Mixon.
Sit 'Em: Kareem Hunt vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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Cleveland Browns running back Kareem Hunt is such a talented and versatile player that we want to trust him more often than not. Unfortunately, we just haven't been able to this season.
Hunt's role in the Browns offense has changed. Though he was only healthy for eight games last year and typically split time with starter Nick Chubb, Hunt averaged 70 scrimmage yards and just under three receptions per game while scoring five touchdowns.
This year, Hunt is averaging just over two receptions and 49.5 scrimmage yards per game with four touchdowns in 10 contests. He's had the occasional good outing—he had four receptions and 72 yards in Week 8, for example—but he remains a clear backup and has underwhelmed more often than not.
This isn't the week to rely on Hunt, even as an injury fill-in. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been gashed on the ground a couple of times this season but have still allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs.
Tampa has also surrendered the third-fewest rushing touchdowns (five), which means Hunt's value lies solely on PPR upside. And with Cleveland not using him heavily in the passing game, that value simply isn't high enough in this matchup.
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Start 'Em: Jaylen Waddle vs. Houston Texans
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Miami Dolphins wideout Tyreek Hill falls firmly into the "must-start" category. Teammate and fellow wideout Jaylen Waddle hasn't been as consistent, however. Despite being a quality fantasy producer most weeks, Waddle has had two games with fewer than 40 receiving yards and six games without a touchdown.
While the 1-8-1 Houston Texans might seem like an easy matchup for Waddle managers, they really aren't.
The Texans have allowed the second-fewest receiving touchdowns in the NFL this season (9). They've also allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers. This largely stems from Houston being terrible against the run (5.1 yards per carry allowed).
With Miami finding a strong running game behind Raheem Mostert and trade-deadline acquisition Jeff Wilson Jr., the Dolphins may not do a ton of passing in this game.
Still, we feel confident in Waddle having a high floor in this one. The Texans are likely to put much of their focus toward stopping Hill, as the Browns did in Miami's last game. Cleveland got decimated by Miami's ground game, and Waddle still finished with four catches and 66 yards. He should have similar or better numbers against Houston.
*Fantasy scoring information via FantasyPros.
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