The Top 10 Landing Spots for Mets' Brandon Nimmo in MLB Free Agency
If everyone can agree that Aaron Judge is more of a right fielder, then Brandon Nimmo is easily the best center fielder on the free-agent market and is poised to cash in accordingly.
So, let's size up his top landing spots.
Andy Martino of SNY reports that at least four teams are in the running for Nimmo, though he also adds that the list is "far from a complete accounting" of the interest in the 29-year-old around Major League Baseball. Rightfully so, as Nimmo generally had nothing but good times in seven years with the New York Mets before entering the open market.
As for what he could command in his next contract, let's discuss that in depth before we get to where he might end up.
What Might It Cost to Sign Nimmo?
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Maybe "scare off" is too strong, but there's one thing in Nimmo's profile that could make prospective suitors wary of signing him: his injury history.
He's missed 256 days to injuries throughout his career, according to Spotrac, including 103 with a neck injury just in 2019. And he's not getting any younger, as March 27 of next year will mark his 30th birthday.
To his credit, though, Nimmo altered his training regimen last winter and benefited to the tune of a career-high 151 games played in 2022.
He otherwise did his usual thing of getting on base and playing generally good defense. He ranks sixth among qualified hitters with a .388 OBP since 2018, with a solid eight outs above average in the same span.
Though Nimmo has never hit more than 17 home runs in a season, his gap power has twice produced seasons with at least seven triples. He also has a spark plug quality to him, as he plays with energy, even when he's "walking" to first base.
With Nimmo having rejected a qualifying offer from the Mets, any of the other 29 teams would have to give up draft picks and/or international bonus money to sign him. He's nonetheless seen as a candidate for a nine-figure deal, with Jon Heyman of the New York Post projecting him as high as $145 million over seven years.
Through a mix of available reporting and speculation, let's now rank 10 potential suitors for Nimmo based on how well they fit him relative to their needs, the resources and their contention timelines.
10-6: Astros, Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants
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10. Houston Astros
CF rWAR in 2022: 1.6
Projected 2023 Payroll: $164 Million
Nothing against Chas McCormick, who's developed into a promising regular, but the World Series champs need to deepen their lineup. They could do this by adding Nimmo to the outfield and bumping Yordan Alvarez to designated hitter.
Still, this might be a reach. The Astros haven't done a nine-figure deal in free agency since 2006, and doing so with Nimmo would also cost them their second-highest pick in the 2023 draft. If they're going to make a splash, chances are it'll be to bring back three-time Cy Young Award winner Justin Verlander.
9. Chicago Cubs
CF rWAR in 2022: minus-0.1
Projected 2023 Payroll: $127 Million
The Cubs have been mentioned here and there as a fit for Nimmo. On paper, at least, it works. Center field was a weakness for the Cubs this past season, in part because Christopher Morel's otherwise solid rookie year didn't include much in the way of defense.
Yet according to Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic, the Cubs are "not viewed as a serious player" for Nimmo. This is understandable, given that he'd cost them their second-highest draft pick and would also be in the way of top prospect Pete Crow-Armstrong.
8. New York Yankees
CF rWAR in 2022: 5.2
Projected 2023 Payroll: $207 Million
According to both Martino and Heyman, the Yankees have expressed interest in signing Nimmo away from their cross-town rivals. It makes some sense, as they have a hole in their outfield, and Nimmo has obviously proven himself capable of handling New York.
Of course, that hole in the outfield was left by Aaron Judge, who is unsurprisingly the Yankees' top priority in free agency after slamming 62 home runs and claiming the American League MVP on Thursday. It likewise bears noting that with Harrison Bader slated to play center field, the Bronx Bombers don't necessarily need Nimmo.
7. Los Angeles Dodgers
CF rWAR in 2022: 1.5
Projected 2023 Payroll: $170 Million
The Dodgers don't need a center fielder either...yet. That could change if they non-tender 2019 National League MVP Cody Bellinger on Friday. If they do, Nimmo would be there for them as an immediate fix for the fresh hole in their outfield.
However, signing Nimmo would cost the Dodgers their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2023 draft and $1 million from their international bonus pool. If they're going to dive headlong into a penalty like that, they might prefer it be for the sake of a bigger fish from the free-agent pool, say, Judge or Carlos Correa.
6. San Francisco Giants
CF rWAR in 2022: 1.1
Projected 2023 Payroll: $132 Million
Elsewhere in the NL West, the Giants are worth mentioning as a fit for Nimmo if for no other reason than they seem to have more spending capacity than any other team this winter. After an 81-81 season, it's also fair to say they simply need stars.
But a Nimmo-shaped star? Maybe if the Giants come up short in their pursuit of Judge, but even then, Nimmo would be something of an awkward fit. With Joc Pederson back in the fold, the Giants already have three left-handed-hitting outfielders.
5. Texas Rangers
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CF rWAR in 2022: 2.2
Projected 2023 Payroll: $140 Million
Why Nimmo for the Rangers? Easy. Because they have money to spend and need a quality hitter to set the table for Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Nathaniel Lowe.
Of this, Nimmo is perfectly capable. He's mostly batted leadoff, which makes him well-suited for the task of improving on the .298 OBP that the Rangers got from their leadoff spot in 2022.
One hypothetical snag is that the Rangers already have a top-notch speedster and defender in center field in Leody Taveras. But with a massive hole in left field, there's room for both him and Nimmo in the outfield.
The bigger snags with this pairing might concern the prospect of the Rangers losing their second-highest pick in the 2023 draft to sign Nimmo and, perhaps even more so, that hitting is not GM Chris Young's top priority:
Nimmo, of course, is not a starting pitcher. And even when the Rangers do eventually pivot to bats, the fact that they already have four left-handed hitters and two switch-hitters in their projected lineup might cause them to focus on right-handed hitters anyway.
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4. Boston Red Sox
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CF rWAR in 2022: 0.7
Projected 2023 Payroll: $134 Million
Will Sammon and Tom Britton of The Athletic floated Nimmo as a fit for the Red Sox back in October, and, yeah, it still works on paper.
It wasn't exactly ideal that the Red Sox got a .295 OBP out of the leadoff spot in 2022. That's where Nimmo would come in, and there's more than one reason to think he could coexist with Enrique Hernández.
Hernández is as capable of playing second base (where Boston also has an opening) as he is of holding it down in center field. Otherwise, the Red Sox should think back to the Jacoby Ellsbury-Shane Victorino pairing of 2013 and remember that having two true center fielders in the same outfield can be a significant competitive advantage at Fenway Park.
But while the Red Sox sure seem to have the money for Nimmo, the penalty to sign him would be steep. The Red Sox would have to give up their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2022 draft, as well as $1 million from their international bonus pool.
Besides, Red Sox CEO and president Sam Kennedy hinted to Michael Silverman of the Boston Globe that the team's attention is on re-signing Xander Bogaerts and extending Rafael Devers.
3. Colorado Rockies
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CF rWAR in 2022: 0.6
Projected 2023 Payroll: $158 Million
Since Charlie Blackmon hung up his center field spikes after the 2018 season, FanGraphs puts the Rockies all the way down at 29th in WAR from the position.
It was thus no great surprise when Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post reported in October that Nimmo was on the Rockies' "preliminary wish list" for the offseason. He's also the left-handed hitter the team needs, and he comes with even more specific relevant qualities.
For one, he's a native of Cheyenne, Wyoming, and is thus not totally unaccustomed to playing at high elevation. For two, he's an excellent fastball hitter. That's a good quality for a hitter to have at Coors Field, where breaking balls don't break as much.
Further, signing Nimmo would only cost the Rockies their third-highest pick in the 2023 draft. So if they further push their budget—they're already slated to spend $22 million more in 2023 than they did in 2022—for Nimmo, it wouldn't be a double-whammy.
The hard part could be convincing Nimmo that Denver is a place he could do some winning. The Rockies are, after all, standing in the wake of 87 losses in 2021 and 94 losses in 2022.
2. New York Mets
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CF rWAR in 2022: 5.3
Projected 2023 Payroll: $237 Million
As Martino reported on Nov. 2, the Mets began their offseason with Nimmo and Edwin Díaz at the top of their retention wish list.
They moved quickly on Díaz, signing the fireballing closer to a five-year, $102 million deal before qualifying offers even went out. Buck Showalter, at least, is publicly hoping that Nimmo is next.
"He's grown as a player and a guy that you can count on, and I hope it's here," said Showalter told SNY's Steve Gelbs on Mets Hot Stove.
As far as what Nimmo would bring to the Mets, well, what kind of deep dive is even necessary there? Thanks to him, they finished 2022 tied for second in center field WAR and first in OBP out of the leadoff spot.
The catch, such as it is, is that the Mets offense doesn't so much need on-base as power after hitting just 171 home runs this year. It may not be out of the question that the Mets will let Nimmo go in favor of signing or trading for a slugger. In that event, they could follow through on general manager Billy Eppler's willingness to move Starling Marte to center.
1. Toronto Blue Jays
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CF rWAR in 2022: 2.2
Projected 2023 Payroll: $176 Million
The Blue Jays entered the offseason with a clear need for a left-handed hitter but without an obvious place to put one.
Not anymore. In trading slugger Teoscar Hernández to the Seattle Mariners, the Blue Jays opened up a spot in their outfield and, in the process, even cleared a projected $14.1 million with which to pursue a fit for it.
So, go figure that Nimmo is now on the team's radar:
Though Toronto already has George Springer in center field, his age (33) and the turf at the Rogers Centre give the team two reasons to move him to a less physically demanding position. Signing Nimmo would allow them to do that while also pushing Springer further down the lineup to a place where he could do more damage with his power.
For the Blue Jays, the non-monetary cost of signing Nimmo involves their second-highest pick in 2023 and $500,000 in international bonus money. It's a lot, to be sure, but not too much to make them think twice about adding what looks an awful lot like a finishing piece.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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