Bowl Predictions 2022: Updated CFP Projections After Week 11 Rankings

Georgia, Ohio State, Michigan and TCU were the top four teams in the College Football Playoff rankings heading into last weekend as the only undefeated FBS squads remaining in the country. And once again, each was victorious this past Saturday.

So, it shouldn't come as a surprise that there was no change at the top of this week's CFP rankings, which were released on Tuesday. The Bulldogs, Buckeyes, Wolverines and Horned Frogs remained in the top four spots, in that order.

Tennessee is still at No. 5, while LSU (No. 6), USC (No. 7), Alabama (No. 8) and Clemson (No. 9) all capitalized on Oregon's loss to Washington and moved up one place.

With only two weeks of regular-season play and then conference championship week to go, here's a prediction for how this season's CFP field will shake out.

College Football Playoff Predictions

AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth

The CFP logo is displayed before the Cotton Bowl NCAA College Football Playoff semifinal game, Friday, Dec. 31, 2021, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Michael Ainsworth)

Peach Bowl: No. 1 Georgia vs. No. 4 Tennessee

Fiesta Bowl: No. 2 Ohio State vs. No. 3 TCU

First Teams Out: Michigan, USC

Huge Ohio State-Michigan Clash Approaching

AP Photo/Paul Vernon

Ohio State wide receiver Kamryn Babb, center, celebrates his touchdown against Indiana with teammates quarterback C.J. Stroud, left, and running back Dallan Hayden during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 12, 2022 in Columbus, Ohio. Ohio State won 56-14. (AP Photo/Paul Vernon)

In recent weeks, Ohio State and Michigan have been focused on not getting upset by lesser opponents. As long as that didn't happen, they would play one of the biggest games of the 2022 season on Nov. 26 at Ohio Stadium.

They are now close to making that matchup a meeting of 11-0 Big Ten teams. Ohio State is going on the road to face Maryland this Saturday, while Michigan will be hosting Illinois. It is highly unlikely either the Buckeyes or Wolverines will lose.

Ohio State and Michigan will then go head-to-head the following week. The winner will finish first in the Big Ten West and advance to the conference championship game, in which either the Buckeyes or Wolverines will be heavy favorites.

That's not all that will be on the line when these teams face, though. There's a good chance the winner will end up in the College Football Playoff and the loser will miss out.

Is there a possibility Ohio State and Michigan both reach the CFP? Sure, but it will likely need to be a competitive matchup when the teams play, and it may require some of the other top playoff contenders losing over the next few weeks.

Neither side can depend on that happening, though. Instead, the Buckeyes and the Wolverines are focused on winning out and controlling their own destiny in order to punch their ticket to the CFP.

It's important for any team not to look past an opponent, and that will be the case for Ohio State and Michigan on Saturday. But it seems like a huge matchup will be taking place the following weekend.

Tennessee Poised to Jump Back into Top 4

AP Photo/Wade Payne

Tennessee quarterback Hendon Hooker (5) throws to a receiver during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Missouri Saturday, Nov. 12, 2022, in Knoxville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Wade Payne)

There's a reason why the Ohio State-Michigan loser likely won't make it to the College Football Playoff. It's because Tennessee is at No. 5 in the rankings and waiting to pounce.

The Vols aren't going to strengthen their resume the rest of the way, but they will likely finish the regular season at 11-1. They play road matchups at South Carolina and Vanderbilt the next two weeks, and they should win both in dominant fashion.

Because Tennessee lost to Georgia earlier this month, it's not going to make it to the SEC Championship Game. So, it will be waiting to see what happens during conference championship week and hoping the selection committee includes it in the four-team field.

But it would be a surprise if Tennessee doesn't make it. Even though it lost to the No. 1 team in the country, it owns victories over No. 6 LSU and No. 8 Alabama. Neither Ohio State nor Michigan has notched wins as impressive as those this season.

The Vols also didn't get blown out in their lone defeat. They went on the road and into a hostile environment to face the Bulldogs and still only lost by 14 points. Who wouldn't want to see a rematch between these SEC East rivals in the CFP semifinals?

The loser of Ohio State-Michigan will be the first team left out, with USC being just outside the bubble as well (assuming the Trojans win out the rest of the way and capture the Pac-12 championship).

However, neither team is likely to jump ahead of Tennessee, which has set itself up well to make the program's first appearance in the College Football Playoff.