NBA Trade Watch: Stock Up, Stock Down for Top Targets After 1 Month
Every year, select NBA players enter the regular season as the focus of other teams' affections.
Let's go ahead and check in on those guys, shall we?
Putting together this list demands some semblance of restraint. We can't just indulge the vulturine whimsy of prospective buyers.
Pointing out that 29 other teams are probably monitoring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander might be good for a few extra clicks, but there's zero evidence suggesting he's available. Should we also wonder when Stephen Curry will get sick of the Golden State Warriors failing to juggle 13 timelines at once and request a trade?
Anyone included here must have been previously, if not be currently, available for the taking. They also can't have entered the season at the nadir of their value (i.e. Jae Crowder) or as an afterthought or salary-filling inclusion (i.e. Buddy Hield, even though he's playing well).
This space is reserved exclusively for the realistically available players who were generating the most buzz, for whatever reason, over the offseason. And though we'll get into the likelihood they get dealt, we're not here to predict. We're here to see how their performances so far have impacted their hypothetical—or actual—trade stock.
John Collins, Atlanta
1 of 6
Stock: Down
John Collins reportedly wasn't happy with his role on the Atlanta Hawks last year. We can only assume he's less than thrilled with it this season.
Adding another ball-dominant guard to the equation, in Dejounte Murray, has further obfuscated Collins' place inside the offense. Playing next to Clint Capela already inherently capped his screen-setting responsibilities. Now, his touches and usage have taken another hit:
- Collins in 2021-22: 33.3 frontcourt touches per 36 minutes, 20.5 usage rate
- Collins in 2022-23: 22.6 frontcourt touches per 36 minutes, 16.0 usage rate
Sheesh. Collins' counting stats are, not surprisingly, down across the board. Head coach Nate McMillan could be more creative in the non-starting lineup combinations he runs out, but Atlanta's pecking order is no longer conducive to prominently spotlighting Collins.
Maybe the Hawks win so much it doesn't matter. They have a top-five defense with room to grow on offense. They have also looked unsettlingly formless for a team so comfortably above .500, and the defense is at least somewhat benefiting from arctic-cold opponent three-point shooting.
Plenty of other teams can guarantee Collins more responsibility at the offensive end. His declining numbers are not proof of regression. They're situational.
Whether Atlanta wants to move him is a separate matter. Collins entered the 2022 NBA draft as one of the most obviously available players in the league, but his output doesn't help his value in talks, and the Hawks aren't in a position to accept draft compensation as a primary return. Atlanta's chief need is also wing depth, and big-for-wing swaps aren't especially common.
Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets
2 of 6
Stock: Up
Yes, Kevin Durant belongs here. He may have rescinded his offseason trade request, but, uh, the fact he requested a trade at all—and pushed for the exits of general manager Sean Marks and now-former head coach Steve Nash—is alarming.
Giving the Brooklyn Nets' situation the benefit of the doubt never made sense. It makes even less now. Nash was already canned, and Kyrie Irving remains suspended after he promoted a documentary rife with anti-semitic sentiments across social media and proceeded to quadruple-down on his decision to do so before eventually apologizing.
Durant, of course, has been hooping since Kyrie left the team. He's averaging 28.0 points, 6.5 assists and 1.8 blocks on 63.1 true shooting while, for the most part, playing truly spirited defense. Opponents are hitting just 34.6(!) percent of their looks at the rim against him during this span.
Yet, entering "Are the Nets better off without the star who's supposed to be their second-best player?" territory is hardly a silver-lining. And Brooklyn has not suddenly vaulted back into the championship discussion during his absence. It has gone from spiritedly shutting down opponents to getting spanked by the Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings.
Turbulence remains the Nets stasis. It feels like only a matter of time before an age-34 Durant revisits his summer trade request. Perhaps it's an issue both he and Brooklyn address over the summer. But KD's future will remain in doubt so long as the Nets sit miles away from contention. And really, what's the point in delaying the inevitable? Don't be surprised if he's suddenly, albeit not at all shockingly, available closer to the February trade deadline.
Eric Gordon, Houston Rockets
3 of 6
Stock: Steady
Eric Gordon doesn't seem like a happy camper at the moment:
It's almost like, at age 33, he doesn't want to be on a 2-12 Houston Rockets squad going through the motions. If not for Boban Marjanovic, by the way, Gordon would be the oldest player on the roster by about seven years. What are he and his running mates even supposed to talk about?
This profiles as a marriage that won't last beyond the trade deadline. Then again, this relationship has felt that way since the Rockets jettisoned James Harden. Houston's repeated insistence on getting back a first-round pick for his services seems to have ensured this partnership on warring timelines will endure.
Are the Rockets willing to accept less now that Gordon is entering the final year of his contract, assuming he doesn't make an All-Star team or win a championship? Beats me.
Gordon hasn't played well enough for Houston to set its asking price. He also hasn't regressed enough for his stock to plunge.
He's averaging over 30 minutes per game and still providing rim pressure and ultra-deep three-point shooting. His efficiency from both spots is down year-over-year, but he's the perfect complementary get for a contender that needs someone who can toggle between on- and off-ball responsibilities while scoring at multiple levels and setting up some secondary offense. A better team than the Rockets should rescue him.
Jakob Poeltl, San Antonio Spurs
4 of 6
Stock: Up
Jakob Poeltl's name continues to get bandied about the speculation factory by virtue of his being older than 25, on an expiring contract and playing for a San Antonio Spurs squad in the infancy of a total rebuild.
Conventional wisdom suggests he'll get moved sometime before the deadline. Then again, there's little conventional about Poeltl's value.
His rim-protection numbers this year are wonky, but that's because he's responsible for covering so much ground these days. A team with more veterans can streamline the amount of work he does on the backline. The same applies at the other end of the floor to his spiking turnover rate.
Poeltl's offense translates to anywhere. He's still under 50 percent from the charity stripe, but he makes up for that with exceptional screen-setting, rim-rolling and interior facilitation.
Only Nikola Jokić and Domantas Sabonis are averaging more touches from the elbows per game. Not only is Poeltl shooting 50 percent on these possessions, but he's posting an assist rate of 15.5, a mark that would be noticeably higher if his teammates connected on more shots off his passes. His overall assist rate (18.6) ranks fifth among all centers who average at least as many minutes, trailing only Jokić, Sabonis, Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns.
Centers who don't space the floor or attack off the dribble from the outside-in are no longer considered red-carpet building blocks. Coupled with Poeltl's upcoming free agency, that could repress any offers the Spurs field.
And if that's the case, they might as well keep and re-sign him and figure out the rest later. Poeltl is that good—not just because he doesn't impede the development of those around him, but because his scalable play style actually uplifts them.
Myles Turner, Indiana Pacers
5 of 6
Stock: Up
Myles Turner is playing out Year 8 in the NBA, but it's somehow Year 9 of his name floating around the rumor mill.
Figure out that math.
After missing the start of the season with an ankle injury, Turner is on a relative tear for the Indiana Pacers. He's averaging a career-high 17.9 points per game on fewer minutes than last year to go along with 8.7 rebounds and 1.4 blocks. His 58.3 percent clip inside the arc comes on slightly more complicated usage. He is averaging more post-ups per 36 minutes (2.2) compared to last season (2.0) and has hit a few runners that make you stop in your tracks. His 37 percent hit rate from three would be the second-highest of his career.
Bigs who stretch the floor and qualify as plug-and-play aren't total oddities. But they are absolutely rarities when they defend like Turner. His mobility on the perimeter has almost always been underrated, and he remains a stalwart at the basket.
No one is contesting more shots at the rim, and opponents are shooting 55.4 percent against him once they get there—nearly 10 points below the overall league average of 65.2 outside garbage time.
The Los Angeles Lakers are no doubt smitten. There's no way they're the only team. Turner is a caps-lock GET. And while he doesn't sound like someone who necessarily expects to be in Indiana long term, we can't necessarily rule it out.
Turner doesn't turn 27 until March. That's far from ancient. The Pacers are also frisky enough that they might be further along in their rebuilding process than expected. If they can't convince a team to pony up more than a singular first-rounder with Turner entering free agency this summer, they could try to compensate him handsomely enough to stay and figure out the rest later.
Pretty Much Everyone on the Utah Jazz
6 of 6
Stock: Up
The Utah Jazz looked like a farm system for trade-deadline buyers after they jettisoned Rudy Gobert, Donovan Mitchell, Bojan Bogdanovic and Royce O'Neale over the summer. CEO Danny Ainge and general manager Justin Zanik ended up stocking the roster with rock-solid players, sure. But the Jazz's depth chart was incidental randomness—a byproduct of deals in which they prioritized draft picks over intangibles.
Utah's start to the season changes the calculus. It has the third-best record in the Western Conference entering games on Wednesday night to go along with a top-three offense. The defense can be shaky, but the Jazz are holding their own with a commitment to getting back after missed shots, and their five-out lineups unlock an offense that's usually thermonuclear enough to offset the difference.
Pretty much everyone on this team has, in turn, increased their trade value—both inside and outside the organization.
Jordan Clarkson has leveled up his passing and rim pressure. Mike Conley has gone from "bloated contract" to "Can the L.A. Clippers or Dallas Mavericks figure out how to trade for him already?" Collin Sexton is still #reallyfast and refined his shot selection. (Note: He's not eligible to be dealt until Dec. 15.)
Malik Beasley is allergic to missing threes and even more allergic to not uncorking long-range attempts in droves. Kelly Olynyk is shooting 57.5 percent on twos and 50 percent on threes. Both he and Jarred Vanderbilt have thrown a handful of delightful passes. Talen Horton-Tucker continues to do anywhere between two and seven things per game that tantalize.
Lauri Markkanen, meanwhile, looks like a borderline All-Star. He's clearing 21 points per game while shooting over 60 percent on drives and better than 38 percent on spot-up threes and tossing some flamboyant dimes and making hard defensive contests both at the rim and on closeouts. At only 25, with two team-controlled years left on his deal after this one, he probably nets two firsts or the prospect equivalent.
This all raises the question: Are the Jazz even open for business? The front office may have the bigger picture still in mind, but it's ostensibly too late tank. They might just see this season through, cross their fingers that the Minnesota Timberwolves keep burping out bad vibes and re-evaluate over the summer.
If Utah is open for business, though, it will be because someone somewhere ponies up for any one or some combination of their many, many ascending trade assets.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass and accurate entering Tuesday's games. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
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