Every NBA Team's Biggest Surprise So Far
The NBA season is often—and accurately—described as a marathon.
More than that, though, it is 30 unique journeys of self-discovery.
With each passing day, teams learn something new about themselves. The process isn't always fun, but the information gleaned is critically important for shaping the near- and long-term focus for the franchise.
Roughly one month into the 2022-23 campaign, we're learning plenty about every team. After slogging through every team's biggest disappointment, let's flip the discussion and spotlight everyone's top surprise.
Atlanta Hawks: Winning with Defense
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A Trae Young-led team has typically been defined by two things: an offensive punch so powerful it can put anyone on the canvas, and a leaky defense that offers no more resistance than a wet paper bag.
Turns out, dealing for Dejounte Murray changes everything.
Boston Celtics: Sam Hauser's Ascension from Afterthought to Asset
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Be honest: How many of you even knew Sam Hauser's name last season? No judgment at all if you didn't. He logged all of 158 minutes across 26 contests, handling mop-up duty here and there but otherwise enjoying a courtside view.
The Celtics had high hopes for him, though, and kept him around in free agency on a three-year, $5.7 million contract that featured two fully guaranteed seasons. Apparently, they were on to something the rest of us missed.
Hauser has already found more floor time than he did all of last season, and his workload should only increase going forward. The 6'8" sharpshooter has splashed 45.2 percent of his long-range looks, which he has launched at a rate of 10.2 per 36 minutes. Statistically speaking, only MVP candidate Jayson Tatum has had a bigger impact on the Shamrocks' offense than Hauser, who has helped this attack average 10.8 points more per 100 possessions than it has without him.
Brooklyn Nets: Edmond Sumner, the Difference-Maker
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To say Edmond Sumner came out of nowhere isn't technically accurate, since 2017's 52nd pick came into this campaign with 108 NBA outings under his belt. Saying that, though, he wasn't even the most interesting former Indiana Pacer who missed all of last season with an injury the Nets added this summer. (Get well soon, T.J. Warren!)
Sumner, who lost the 2021-22 campaign to a torn Achilles, wasn't a rotation regular right away for Brooklyn, but he has since joined the starting lineup to replace the suspended Kyrie Irving. The Nets have never looked back.
Brooklyn has gone 4-2 with Sumner as a starter—it was 2-6 before this run—and fared 7.3 points better per 100 possessions with him than without. That's an impressive mark for anyone, let alone a 26-year-old who had never previously posted a positive net differential.
Charlotte Hornets: Dennis Smith Jr. Making Good Things Happen
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Dennis Smith Jr.'s NBA career barely had a pulse this offseason. The ninth overall pick in 2017 played fewer than 40 games each of the last three seasons and was unceremoniously dumped by the tanking Portland Trail Blazers in February. His free-agency journey stretched into late September and ended only with a non-guaranteed contract from Charlotte.
Things were bleak enough that he was considering trying to make it in the NFL before the Hornets came calling.
Charlotte not only gave Smith an NBA gig, though, it also quickly ushered him into the opening lineup to cover for an injured LaMelo Ball. Smith has hit the ground sprinting at speeds he's never previously reached. His 6.2 assists are a career high, and his 10.2 points are his most since 2018-19, but the quality of his numbers outshines the quantity. His shooting rates from the field (46.4) and outside (35.7) are both personal bests, while his 13.9 turnover percentage is his lowest to date.
Chicago Bulls: Goran Dragić Got His Groove Back
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Goran Dragić, who turned 36 in May, never found his footing during the 2021-22 season. He was traded twice—first to the Toronto Raptors in August, then to the San Antonio Spurs in February—waived and ultimately wound up in Brooklyn, where he shot just 37.6 percent (24.5 from three) over 16 games.
Given the readings on his NBA odometer, you wondered if age had simply got the best of him.
Apparently not. Dragić's start to this season is more than a sprint; it's like he's been shot out of a cannon—and right into a rejuvenation pool. He's pumping in 10.1 points on 45.7 percent shooting and 3.6 assists against 1.4 turnovers in only 19.3 minutes per night. He's also shooting a career-best 46.8 percent from range and leading the Bulls with a plus-20 net differential.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Dean Wade Making a Leap
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Dean Wade had previously established himself as a rock-solid role player, but this is something different.
Maybe it's a hot start. Maybe he's playing over his head. Or maybe the 25-year-old is taking one massive step forward.
Either way, he is quickly becoming a critical contributor for the Cavs. His 52.9 field-goal percentage and 50.0 three-point percentages are both personal bests by a mile since his first year. Those numbers matter, too, since Wade has a rotation-best plus-19.2 net differential.
Dallas Mavericks: Spencer Dinwiddie Doesn't Miss from Distance
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Spencer Dinwiddie had a ton of interesting tools before this season. For the longest time, he tantalized basketball minds with his blend of size (6'5"), distributing and downhill driving.
The question that really got the imaginations running wild, though, was how good he could be with a reliable jumper.
We might have our answer now. Dinwiddie, who carried a 32.2 career three-point percentage into this campaign, is suddenly a quantity-plus-quality marksman. His 39 threes are 16th-most in the Association, and his 45.9 percent splash rate is sixth-best among the 63 players with at least 20 makes.
Denver Nuggets: Bones Hyland's Outside-the-Arc Touch
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An All-Rookie second-teamer last season, Bones Hyland has encountered a bit of turbulence during his second time around.
Except, that is, for whenever he takes aim from distance.
While his two-point percentage has tanked (27.5, down from 46.5), his three-point percentage has peaked to an incredible rate (50.0, up from 36.6). He's so hot that despite making exactly half of his catch-and-shoot threes, he's actually converting his pull-up triples at an even better clip (51.7 percent).
Detroit Pistons: the Rookies' Readiness
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Every team hopes for the best from its freshmen. That's triply true for a rebuilding team like the Pistons, who entered the 2022 draft in need of more high-level prospects to slot alongside Cade Cunningham and exited it with two lottery picks hopefully capable of providing just that: Jaden Ivey (No. 5 pick) and Jalen Duren (No. 13).
Teams don't actually know what's going to happen, though. When—or if—the light bulb ever clicks remains a mystery until it happens (or doesn't).
Luckily, the Pistons don't have to practice any patience with their first-year players. Ivey is already pacing this rookie class with 4.1 assists (against 2.6 turnovers) and ranks third with 16.1 points. Duren has snagged the most offensive rebounds (2.8) and second-most boards overall (7.3) while also cramming 1.2 blocks into his nightly allotment of 21.1 minutes and finishing 56.1 percent of his field-goal tries.
Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry Posting Several Career Marks
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Before this season is finished, Stephen Curry will celebrate his 35th birthday. His immediate goal, one would reasonably assume, would be to either extend his prime as best he can or to at least minimize the damage done by any age-related decline.
But Curry, ever the innovator, has taken the novel approach of proving that old dogs—er, 34-year-old, two-time MVPs—can learn new tricks. His 52.3 field-goal percentage would top his previous personal-best with ease, his 31.5 points per game are the second-most of his career and his turnover percentage has never been lower (10.0).
"I think given the circumstances with our team kind of in a rut trying to dig our way out of a hole he has just been spectacular," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said, per Anthony Slater of The Athletic. "Never been better. I can say that."
At some point, Curry's career will crest and he'll have to get by on being less and less of a percentage of the player he once was. For now, though, he's not only fending off decline, he's also somehow still ascending.
Houston Rockets: The Offensive Output of Defensive Specialists
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If the Rockets didn't add the top defenders in the 2021 and 2022 drafts, they certainly found two of the most physically gifted in Usman Garuba (No. 23 pick in 2021) and Tari Eason (17 in 2022).
While the sculpted stoppers have impressed most with their defensive intensity and overall activity levels, they've proved they can contribute at the other end, too.
Eason has tallied 16.6 points per 36 minutes. Garuba is only at 9.0 points per 36 minutes, but he has hit that mark on 54.5 percent shooting and tossed out 2.8 assists per 36 minutes. Collectively, the two have hit 16 of 34 shots from three-point territory (47.1 percent).
Indiana Pacers: Elite Offense
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The degree to which the Pacers are rebuilding isn't entirely certain, since they haven't yet brokered forward-thinking trades involving one or both of Myles Turner and Buddy Hield. Clearly, though, this is a team in transition, a label that typically implies a little clunkiness and whatever the opposite of synergy is.
Well, the Circle City's finest are anything but clunky. Despite fielding one of the league's younger rosters and playing at the third-fastest speed, the Pacers have one of the Association's most efficient attacks (seventh overall).
Now, are they playing a little above their heads? Considering they have four regulars shooting 40-plus percent from three—Hield, Tyrese Haliburton and rookies Bennedict Mathurin and Andrew Nembhard—you could make that argument. However, the Haliburton-Mathurin backcourt is clearly a problem for opposing defenses, and for a rebuilding roster, the pieces fit surprisingly snug around it.
Los Angeles Clippers: John Wall Looks Like John Wall
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There's a universe in which John Wall returns in 2022-23 after not playing at all in two of the previous three seasons and looks completely unrecognizable.
We should all be grateful that isn't our reality.
On this plane of existence, the 32-year-old Wall looks a lot like the 20-something blur who used to always have opposing defenses on their heels. His workload is being (smartly) managed now (22.6 minutes), and he hasn't found the touch on a three-ball that wasn't great to begin with (24.3 percent), but otherwise, this all fits with the memories of Wall we have.
Stretch his numbers out to the per-36-minutes scale, and you'll find a little more scoring (20.1) and a touch less assists (8.1) than his career marks (19.3 and 9.2, respectively). His 43.4 field-goal percentage almost perfectly matches up with his career 43.1 mark, and he remains a potent producer from close range (78.3 percent shooting inside of three feet) and in the open court (78th percentile in transition).
Los Angeles Lakers: Lonnie Walker IV Making Good on Potential
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Lonnie Walker IV was a popular preseason breakout pick for a few reasons. First, he's a former top-20 pick (No. 18 in 2018), so clearly he has talent. Second, he's a Laker, so that alone will get folks talking. Third, this worked out for Malik Monk last season, so why wouldn't Walker follow in the same footsteps?
Well, Walker is the choice here for two reasons.
First, the fact Monk made the leap last season had no actual bearing on Walker's outlook. Credit him for capitalizing on an increase in minutes and touches, but this is an isolated event that has nothing to do with Monk's 2021-22 play. Second, if you don't go with Walker, where do you find the pleasant surprise in L.A.? Matt Ryan's transition from a September signing to a rotation regular was unexpected, but his role is already shrinking and has as much to do with L.A.'s desperation to find shooting than anything.
Memphis Grizzlies: Desmond Bane's Shot Creation
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Remember when Desmond Bane was merely one of the best three-and-D wings in the game? Well, somehow in the span of two-plus NBA seasons, he now ranks favorably among the league's best point producers overall.
His off-the-dribble growth has been so sudden and spectacular, it's almost kind of jarring. As a rookie in 2020-21, he was assisted on 93.2 percent of his threes and 70.9 percent of his twos. Now, those percentages have tumbled all the way to 67.4 and 43.4, respectively. He's actually shooting better on pull-up threes (47.3 percent) than on catch-and-shoot triples (43.5).
"He took an extreme leap from what most guys [do]," Ja Morant said, per NBA.com's Michael C. Wright. "He went from [a] catch-and-shoot [player] to doing it all on the floor, a three-level scorer. I really say four because he can shoot from the parking lot."
Beyond Bane's perpetual growth as a self-sufficient scorer, he's creating for others now, too. As a rookie, he averaged 1.7 assists. He's up to 4.8 assists now, and despite a big jump in usage percentage (16.1 to 27.3), his turnover percentage is the same now as it was then (10.2).
Miami Heat: Max Strus Taking Another Step
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This was tricky, because the Heat appear to be who many thought they were: a worse version of last season's squad. Their efficiency ranks have dropped at both ends, the wins haven't come nearly as often—they were the East's No. 1 seed last season; now they're No. 8 and 1-3 on the road—and most players aren't producing noticeably better than before.
Max Strus is one exception, though.
The statistical changes haven't been dramatic—in fact, his points, rebounds and assists per 36 minutes have all plateaued or regressed—but being as reliable while handling nearly 10 more minutes per game is an improvement on its own. Plus, the Heat have felt his impact more. Last season, they basically broke even with him (plus-0.7 points per 100 possessions); now, they're noticeably better when he's on the floor (plus-3.6).
Milwaukee Bucks: Jevon Carter Understanding the Assignment
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Milwaukee's offense was never going to be the same with Khris Middleton stuck on the sideline while working his way back from wrist surgery. He's the best ball-handler on the team and second-most important scorer. There's no way to replace that on the fly.
Jevon Carter is doing everything he can, though.
Known primarily for his defensive intensity, he is stretching the limits of his offensive game like never before. His stat sheet shows one career high after the next, including 9.4 points (on 42.1 percent shooting), 3.3 assists (against 1.5 turnovers) and 1.7 triples (splashed at a 40 percent clip).
Minnesota Timberwolves: Taurean Prince's Sizzling Slash Line
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Go ahead and sound the "Small Sample Size" siren if you want, but the Timberwolves need some relief, so why not let them have this one?
Taurean Prince has been all-caps AWESOME so far. He's not shooting a ball in the basket as much as he's lobbing rocks into the ocean. Half of his field-goal attempts are finding their mark. Same goes for 42.2 percent of his threes and 94.1 percent of his free throws.
That's right, folks, this is 50/40/90 levels of shooting sorcery. Will it sustain? Almost certainly not. He's been a 40 percent three-point shooter once before, but he's never topped 45.4 percent from the field or 85.5 percent from the stripe. Still, he's feeling it now, and the Wolves are feeling it, too, as they've fared 2.9 points better per 100 possessions with him than without.
New Orleans Pelicans: Trey Murphy III's Emergence
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Throughout the course of his short NBA career, Trey Murphy III has been dropping hints that a breakout was imminent.
The second half of his rookie season was better than the first, and he was even better still by the postseason, where he shot a ridiculous 47.4 percent from three. He then looked too good for summer league before posting the Pelicans' second-most points per game in the preseason.
You could've followed all of those breadcrumbs, though, and still not expected to see a jump this high. He's up to 11.5 points per game (was 5.4 last season) and has upped each level of his scorching hot 46.7/39.4/95.5 shooting slash. He has also become a cheat code in transition (99th percentile) and unstoppable around the rim (70.8 percent inside of three feet).
New York Knicks: Thibs Tried the Toppin-Randle Lineup
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Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau had been adamant about not wanting to play Julius Randle and Obi Toppin together. The numbers suggest he might have been right.
Randle and Toppin, who logged 107 minutes together last season, have already seen 42 minutes across nine games. While New York is 6-3 in those contests, it's been successful in spite of this twosome, which has a minus-12.9 net rating so far.
Still, Thibodeau's willingness to trot them out together is encouraging for a coach who doesn't have the reputation of being the most flexible skipper around. Plus, the sample size is tiny, and there is plenty of time for these two to turn things around. Toppin clearly needs more minutes, and finding some alongside Randle could be a significant boost.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Joining the MVP Race
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There were a million and one reasons to think Shai Gilgeous-Alexander had zero chance of entering the MVP race this season, and not one of them was talent.
The Thunder figured to offer no support in the team success department. His numbers had been more good than great before, and with even more prospects to develop in the Sooner State, it wasn't obvious how those could expand. Even if he did make a leap, the future-focused franchise could always find some phantom injury that shuts him down.
Maybe one of those roadblocks or a different one trips him up, but for now, how does he not get a prominent mention in MVP talks? Individually, he's been awesome—31.5 points on 53.9/37.8/94.0 shooting, 5.8 assists, 2.1 steals and 1.5 blocks—and the Thunder have followed his lead on their 6-8 start. His net differential stands at a robust plus-9.7 points per 100 possessions.
Orlando Magic: Bol Bol's Breakout
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How many 2022-23 NBA bingo cards would you have had to fill out before landing on a Bol Bol breakout?
He was always intriguing in theory—he's a 7'2" shot-blocker with a sweet stroke—but he was always either injured or buried on someone's bench. Given the congestion on Orlando's frontcourt, this seemed like the least likely setting for Bol's success story.
Yet, here we are. Bol, who has already logged floor time at all three frontcourt spots, suddenly seems right at home and ready to stake his claim in the Association's stable of unicorns. This is his first real run in an NBA rotation, and he has already amassed per-game marks of 11.6 points (on 63.4/48.0/85.2 shooting), 7.6 rebounds, 1.9 blocks and 0.9 threes in 24 minutes while ranking second on the Magic with a plus-7.8 net differential.
Philadelphia 76ers: Dominant Defense
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Joel Embiid recently netting 101 points—paired with 21 rebounds, 14 assists, nine blocks and three steals—over a two-game stretch was wild, but it didn't feel totally impossible given his prodigious talent. Tyrese Maxey making another jump felt right in line with his progression. James Harden being a nightly triple-double threat is just sort of what he does.
The Sixers are, by and large, pretty much exactly what you'd expect. If there is a surprise in Philly, though, it's the jump from 12th to fifth in defensive efficiency.
That was surely the franchise aim when they added De'Anthony Melton, P.J. Tucker and Danuel House Jr. this offseason, but it was hardly guaranteed. Sustaining this start, though, will be the real key. The playoffs will provide tests that the regular season cannot and will ultimately determine whether Philly has enough speed and athleticism on the wings to dominate this end of the floor.
Phoenix Suns: Mikal Bridges Going Berserk
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With Jae Crowder out of the picture, and Chris Paul failing to find his shooting touch, the Suns have needed someone to step up and help Devin Booker carry the offense.
Mikal Bridges has answered that call.
While there isn't a dramatic spike in any of his stat categories, there is instead a steady increase across the board. In addition to supplying personal bests of 15.6 points and 3.1 assists, he has also hit new heights at each level of his 54.9/43.2/88.6 shooting slash. He's been a high-level support player before, but he could really sway some All-Star voters this season.
Portland Trail Blazers: The Top-10 Defense
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The Blazers have been largely successful throughout Damian Lillard's tenure, but their position among the Association's elites never really solidified because they were so imbalanced. They could always obliterate opponents with offense, but they'd too often give all of it back on the opposite end.
That's what gives Portland's 9-4 start such a different feel. While the Blazers can still summon some incredible scoring efforts, it's their sixth-ranked defense steering the ship.
They still have question marks in the backcourt—the Lillard-Anfernee Simons pairing doesn't seem much different than the Lillard-CJ McCollum twosome that preceded it—and Jusuf Nurkić isn't the most versatile stopper at center. However, they have enviable size, length and athleticism on the wings, and that could be the key to sustaining this strong start and giving this group the two-way balance it's never been able to tackle.
Sacramento Kings: Kevin Huerter Can't Miss
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Since Domantas Sabonis isn't much of a spacer and De'Aaron Fox hasn't really been one before this season, the Kings chased shooting wherever they could find it this summer.
That search apparently led them directly to a flamethrower.
Now, that's not always how Kevin Huerter would've been described, as he seemingly peaked as a very good (but not quite great) long-range shooter over four seasons in Atlanta. Something has gotten into him in Sacramento, though, and he's now rubbing elbows with the very best net-shredders. His 3.8 triples per game rank seventh overall, and he's second in accuracy with a 51.1 percent splash rate.
San Antonio Spurs: Tre Jones Taking It All in Stride
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If this all felt a bit overwhelming for Tre Jones, no one would blame him. When he joined the Spurs in 2020-21, they still had DeMar DeRozan and LaMarcus Aldridge atop the roster.
In the two seasons since, San Antonio has moved on from not only them, but just about every recognizable face on the roster. Since that purge plucked away the likes of Dejounte Murray, Derrick White and Patty Mills, Jones is suddenly the last point guard standing in the Alamo City.
Again, this could all be more than enough to overwhelm Jones, a 22-year-old who was taken 41st overall in 2020 and rarely saw the floor as a rookie. Instead, he's using this opportunity to make his mark. He's one of only four players averaging at least 12 points and six assists with two or fewer turnovers, and he's also hitting career shooting marks from three (41.9 percent) and at the line (91.7).
Toronto Raptors: Pascal Siakam Chasing 2nd Most Improved Player Award
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In 2018-19, Pascal Siakam took home the Most Improved Player award for making the jump from a rotational reserve to a high-level starter.
You could argue the leap he's currently making—from very good to All-Galaxy great—is even more impressive.
"His ball-handling has improved, his shooting has improved, his mid-game has improved, he's understanding where to get his shots from," 76ers coach Doc Rivers told reporters. "... He is a bona fide star in the league."
Siakam's stardom isn't new, but the degree of it is something he hasn't previously approached. This is top-five-player-on-the-planet type of stuff. If the campaign closed today, he'd be just the eighth player ever to average 24 points, nine rebounds and seven assists.
Utah Jazz: Everything
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The Jazz spent the offseason trading their three best players from last season—Donovan Mitchell, Rudy Gobert and Bojan Bogdanović—and plunging head-first into the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes.
Or so it seemed, anyway.
Rather than juicing the loss column and improving the draft lottery odds, though, Utah is sitting third in the Western Conference standings and fourth in the NBA's net efficiency rankings. Lauri Markkanen and Jordan Clarkson are both making early All-Star arguments, and the rest of this roster is providing ample support on both ends.
It's exactly how no one drew it up.
Washington Wizards: Jordan Goodwin Seizing His Moment
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A lot of things needed to happen for Jordan Goodwin to get on Washington's roster, let alone find any floor time, like Corey Kispert's preseason injury, Johnny Davis' preseason struggles and Delon Wright's hamstring strain. Still, Goodwin's rapid rise is one of self-made success, as none of the aforementioned factors would matter if Washington's newest energizer flubbed this opportunity.
Obviously, that didn't happen. Goodwin, who went undrafted out of Saint Louis in 2021, saw sporadic minutes in three of the team's first nine games, but that was all he needed to force his way into the rotation.
He has played in each of Washington's five contests since, logging 24.6 minutes per night and spending them tallying 9.4 points on 54.5 percent shooting (61.5 percent from three), 5.8 rebounds, 4.4 assists, 1.2 blocks and 1.0 steals. The Wizards are 4-1 in this stretch and outscoring opponents by 29 points over his 123 minutes.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com and accurate through Nov. 14.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
