College Football Odds Week 11: Picks Against the Spread for Top 25 Matchups
The Big 12 hasn't had a team reach the College Football Playoff since the 2019 season. The Pac-12's drought has been even longer, as it hasn't sent a team to the CFP since the 2016 campaign.
However, it's quite possible that one of those conferences returns to the playoff this season. And there's also still the potential for a team from each to reach the CFP.
TCU and Oregon are ranked No. 4 and No. 6, respectively, in this week's College Football Playoff rankings. The Horned Frogs are 9-0 and appear to control their own destiny the rest of the way as they eye the Big 12 championship. Meanwhile, the Ducks are 8-1 and the front-runners to win the Pac-12 title, which could help them get to the CFP.
As Week 11 action approaches, here's a look at the upcoming schedule for the top teams in the country, along with odds and picks for each game. Then, we'll dive into why bettors should be looking to place money on both TCU and Oregon this Saturday.
Week 11 Schedule, Odds, Picks
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Friday, Nov. 11
Colorado at No. 8 USC (-34), 9:30 p.m. ET, FS1
Saturday, Nov. 12
Missouri at No. 5 Tennessee (-20), noon ET, CBS
Indiana at No. 2 Ohio State (-40), noon ET, Fox
No. 7 LSU (-3.5) at Arkansas, noon ET, ESPN
Purdue at No. 21 Illinois (-6.5), noon ET, ESPN2
Vanderbilt at No. 24 Kentucky (-18), noon ET, SEC Network
No. 20 Notre Dame (-15.5) at Navy, noon ET, ABC
Nebraska at No. 3 Michigan (-30.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
No. 9 Alabama (-11.5) at No. 11 Ole Miss, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Louisville at No. 10 Clemson (-7), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Maryland at No. 14 Penn State (-10), 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox
No. 22 UCF at No. 17 Tulane (-1.5), 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
Boston College at No. 16 NC State (-18), 3:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network
No. 1 Georgia (-16) at Mississippi State, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
No. 25 Washington at No. 6 Oregon (-13.5), 7 p.m. ET, Fox
No. 19 Kansas State at Baylor (-2.5), 7 p.m. ET, FS1
No. 4 TCU at No. 18 Texas (-7), 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC
No. 15 North Carolina at Wake Forest (-3.5), 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2
No. 23 Florida State (-7) at Syracuse, 8 p.m. ET, ACC Network
Stanford at No. 13 Utah (-24), 10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Arizona at No. 12 UCLA (-19.5), 10:30 p.m. ET, Fox
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook. Picks in bold against the spread.
No. 4 TCU (+7) at No. 18 Texas
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How often does a 9-0 team that is ranked No. 4 in the country go into a game as a seven-point underdog? It probably hasn't happened often. And yet, that's the position TCU is in heading into its road matchup at No. 18 Texas on Saturday.
It's a challenging matchup for the Horned Frogs, but it's nothing new for them in 2022. They've already won four games against teams that were ranked at the time, which includes an impressive victory against Kansas State (currently No. 19 in the CFP rankings) last month.
But Texas may be TCU's toughest opponent yet, especially considering the electric atmosphere there's likely to be in Austin with ESPN's College GameDay in town. Plus, Longhorns junior running back Bijan Robinson is having a tremendous season, having rushed for 1,129 yards and 12 touchdowns.
In typical Big 12 fashion, though, this game should be an offensive shootout. TCU ranks first in the conference with 508.7 total yards per game. Texas is averaging 447.1 total yards per contest itself.
Even if the Horned Frogs can't preserve their unblemished record, it seems unlikely that they'll lose by seven or more points. Every game they've played against solid teams this year has been close, and they've found ways to pull out wins in all of them.
If TCU falters, it's going to be a close loss in a high-scoring, back-and-forth game. So bettors should take the Horned Frogs with the seven extra points. And there's even an argument to be made that it could be wise to bet on them to win via the moneyline.
It's going to be an exciting game, and TCU will either end up on top or come up just short.
No. 6 Oregon (-13.5) vs. No. 25 Washington
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When Oregon lost 49-3 in its season opener to Georgia, the outlook for the Ducks didn't look great. It wasn't a bad loss in terms of quality of opponent (considering the Bulldogs are the reigning national champions), but it was disappointing that it wasn't even a close game.
Since then, though, Oregon has been dominant. It's rolled to eight consecutive wins that have it atop the Pac-12 standings as the only team with an unblemished conference record. And the Ducks are looking to win out so that they can win the Pac-12 title and put themselves in the College Football Playoff conversation.
But Oregon is about to encounter one of its toughest stretches of the season. On Saturday, it hosts No. 25 Washington. Then, it plays No. 13 Utah at home the following week. And if the Ducks make it to the Pac-12 Championship Game on Dec. 2, they'll play another challenging game.
It's not a given that Oregon will reach the CFP or even win the Pac-12 title. But it shouldn't lose to Washington this week. Not when the Ducks will have home-field advantage against a clearly inferior opponent.
One major reason for Oregon's success has been the play of senior quarterback Bo Nix, who is putting himself in the Heisman Trophy conversation. He's passed for 2,495 yards and 22 touchdowns and added 13 rushing scores.
The Ducks' offense should be no match for the Huskies' defense, as they're averaging a Pac-12 high 520.6 total yards per game. And because of that, Oregon should have no trouble winning by at least 14 points in what could turn into a lopsided contest.
Feel confident betting on the Ducks, who will keep their momentum going for at least another week.
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