The People's Preview to UFC 280: Top Storylines and Under-the-Radar Scraps
Are you ready for the best mixed martial arts card of 2022? Because ready or not, it’s coming your way Saturday when UFC 280 kicks off from Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates.
For viewers in the United States, be aware that the first prelim bout is scheduled for 10 a.m. ET, with the main card set to start at 2 p.m. Skip the pumpkin patch this weekend and settle in for the best slate of face-punching you’re likely to find.
We all know about the headliner, pitting the great Charles Oliveira against fast-rising wrestle-demon Islam Makhachev for the vacant UFC lightweight title. It’s not the only belt on the line, as the co-main event features bantamweight champ Aljamain Sterling defending his title against former champ TJ Dillashaw.
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But that’s not what makes this card so great, at least not exclusively. From top to bottom, this card is abuzz with drama, awash with talent both established and emerging, and brimming with implications for the UFC landscape moving forward.
Let’s now go beyond the headlines to hit a few key storylines and some under-the-radar fights you should try to catch, even if it means delaying your trip to the local cidery.
Ready? Let’s get it on.
Will Oliveira’s Long Career and Aggressive Fight Style Catch up to Him?
As much we all love Charlie Olives, the guy is getting pretty shopworn.
He only just turned 33 on Monday, but keep in mind he first fought for the UFC at the tender age of 20, with his overall pro debut coming at age 18. He’s amassed 42 fights in that time, often competing at least three times a year.
Now factor in those life-force-draining weight cuts down to 145 pounds, which he endured 12 times. He missed his mark on the scale four times as a featherweight. (No need to relitigate that controversial miss in his last bout that cost him the lightweight title.)
Now think about his fighting style—this is a guy who lives in the belly of the beast. That aggressive, almost reckless approach, barging head-on into his opponent’s most dangerous skill set, electrifies fans but also has to take its toll. Look at what he did in May, when he stalked down one of the UFC’s most violent strikers in Justin Gaethje, absorbing a knockdown before delivering one of his own en route to a first-round submission. Or when he went toe-to-toe with Michael Chandler last year, taking big damage early, escaping a sub attempt and absorbing 30 significant strikes to give just 24 in return. He had the last laugh, though, in the form of a crushing left hook that ultimately installed OIiveira as the new champ.
Oliveira is on one of the greatest rolls in the UFC right now, and his talent is unassailable. But that doesn’t make him invincible, especially given his past. Longtime fight fans know full well that when a fighter’s decline begins, it’s often a steep and sudden slope.
I picked Oliveira to win this fight because I believe he can stay out of Makhachev’s clutches and strike or scramble his way to victory. Still, with so much fighting and damage in and out of the cage, it wouldn’t be a shock to see the Brazilian’s mojo begin to erode, perhaps this Saturday against a soul-crushing opponent in Makhachev.
The Souring of Suga Sean
To this point in his career, Sean O’Malley has proved to be a marketable character and a striker you underestimate as your own risk.
But he hasn’t faced anyone yet like Petr Yan. These two do not like each other, and that will only add fuel to a fire that will be very entertaining but will ultimately see one of the UFC's bright young stars fall back to earth.
Yan, the No. 1 bantamweight contender in the official UFC rankings, is easily the toughest test to date for O’Malley, who sits at No. 11. Suga Sean has only one defeat in 10 UFC contests but hasn’t faced any true elites until now, with the possible exception of Marlon Vera, who knocked him out in the first round following a fluky O’Malley injury.
That’s why O’Malley is a +225 underdog here, per DraftKings, and it’s why his hype train is almost certainly destined for a track adjustment.
Can he win this fight? Sure. He has dynamic striking, especially on his rangy kicks, and with a title shot on the line, there’s plenty to fight for. This isn’t a skills competition but rather a cage fight. Pure talent doesn’t always carry the day.
But it says here Yan is going to humble the flashy Arizonan. People are drawn to Yan’s airtight muay thai attack, but his ground game is pretty solid, too. Rather than thrash it out with O’Malley in the center of the ring, as many of his other opponents have done, Yan will work takedowns and ground-and-pound to neutralize O’Malley’s striking and sap his cardio. Yan lands about 1.5 takedowns per contest, while O’Malley’s takedown defense is an unspectacular 64 percent—26 percentage points lower than Yan, who leads the division in this category.
Yan is talented, and he is methodical. O’Malley has never faced a fighter of his caliber before, and it will show Saturday. UFC matchmakers will put the kid gloves back on for the 27-year-old O’Malley after a one-sided affair. Mark it down.
Gamrot vs. Dariush: Grappler’s Delight
Just a few data points to wet your whistle for what could be a master class in MMA grappling.
Each man has a prestigious pedigree in this area. Once a member of the Polish national youth wrestling team, Gamrot has two ADCC European championships to his name. Dariush, among other accomplishments, is a three-time winner of the prestigious World No-Gi Jiu-Jitsu Championship.
In the UFC, Dariush is far more experienced and ranks in the lightweight division’s top 10 in just about every grappling category, including submission wins (five), total control time (1:19:17) and takedowns landed (26). With only five fights to date in the UFC, Gamrot hasn’t racked up these kinds of cumulative stats yet, but he’s still averaging an absurd 4.83 takedowns per contest. He earned a step up in competition in June after a scintillating Fight of the Night with Arman Tsarukyan that saw him relentlessly striving for takedowns, hitting six of them and racking up nearly five minutes (or a full round) of control time.
Both men like to strike as well, especially Gamrot. But if you enjoy watching the most skilled fighters in the world put those skills on full display, you’re hoping this one plays out mainly on the ground.
Sean Brady vs. Belal Muhammad: Is Brady Ready for His Close-Up?
Philadelphia native Sean Brady is 15-0 in MMA, including a 5-0 mark under the UFC banner. Though he’s a well-rounded competitor, his power wrestling game is his trademark and highly effective. If you can outwrestle both Jake Matthews and Michael Chiesa, you’re going to turn heads, and Brady has done just that.
It’s been a year since he’s competed, though, and if there’s ring rust in the mix, Belal Muhammad is going to exploit it. Muhammad is a consummate veteran, good everywhere and great nowhere, always ready for five-round wars that attack his opponent’s weak points.
There's also the small matter of fact that Muhammad will be cornered by lightweight GOAT Khabib Nurmagomedov, whose specter hangs over much of this card, from the main event on down.
It's not bothering Brady, at least not in the runup to the fight. If the 29-year-old is going to make the leap from prospect to the real thing, this is the fight where it will happen. DraftKings has him as a slim -140 favorite to get it done.
Mokaev Takes Another Step
Muhammad Mokaev (8-0) is an overwhelming -1150 favorite to handle Malcolm Gordon on the deep undercard.
The Dagestani-Brit entered the UFC in March behind a mountain of hype, which he justified with a 58-second crushing of poor Cody Durden. A less inspiring but still-effective decisioning of Charles Johnson followed. Now, he’s fighting for the third time in 2022 and should be able to get the action to the ground, which is his wheelhouse. Perhaps looking to stave off the dreaded “boring” label, Mokaev could come out laser-focused on getting a stoppage and set himself up as a serious prospect at the ripe old age of 22.
Abubakar Nurmagomedov Returns After 19-Month Layoff, Faces Gadzhi Omargadzhiev
Makhachev isn’t the only smesher on the UFC 280 slate. Welterweight Abubakar Nurmagomedov, a cousin of Khabib’s whom Khabib and his family unofficially adopted when the two were kids, is back in the UFC after more than a year-and-a-half away.
He's an undistinguished 1-1 thus far with the UFC. His debut, a loss, came in 2019. Fast-forward to March 2021, and he had his first win. After what feels like an eternity on a fighter's timeline, he's finally back again, following lengthy delays from injuries and visa issues. DraftKings has him at -165 to defeat Gadzhi Omargadzhiev.
Abubakar is not as dynamic an athlete or as dangerous a finisher as his GOAT cousin and may never see the same level of hype as some of his fellow Dagestanis, including the one at the top of this card. Still, his power grappling and training pedigree mean he’s worth keeping an eye on, at least until he proves he isn’t.
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