Buying or Selling Early 2022 NFL Rookie Sensations on Superstar Potential
The 2022 NFL draft class has not waited to make an impression. Through six weeks of the season, several first-year players have already made their mark with their contributions.
But the highest aspiration for every draft pick is that they are able to develop into a superstar.
Obviously, expectations shift based on draft capital and position, but teams that find sustained success are the ones that can discover All-Pro talent in the draft and develop them.
Each of these rookies has had some moments where they've flashed that kind of potential, but there's still plenty of work to do for each of these prospects before deeming them "superstars".
For this exercise, we'll consider a superstar as someone who is voted All-Pro or voted to multiple Pro Bowlers. So let's take a look at some of the early rookie sensations and come to a verdict on whether they will eventually become superstars.
WR Romeo Doubs, Green Bay Packers
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The Green Bay Packers have had some great success when it comes to finding star wide receivers outside of the first round. Romeo Doubs has already started drawing comparisons to the likes of Greg Jennings, Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson
There's no doubt that Doubs has already exceeded expectations as a fourth-round pick. He's been a consistent presence in the receiving corps while fellow rookie wide receiver Christian Watson has dealt with injuries, drops and a lack of opportunities.
However, any hope that Doubs can become like Adams, Jennings or even Nelson, who made just one Pro Bowl in his career, is premature.
Doubs is sixth among all rookie receivers, but he is only on pace to have 74 receptions for 663 yards and six touchdowns.
Digging into how Doubs has succeeded, there isn't anything that he's doing at an elite level. He's 29th in target separation but 10th in average cushion, meaning teams are giving him plenty of space to work with but he's not been an elite separator, per Player Profiler.
He's averaging just 6.2 yards per target and has a contested catch rate of just 50 percent.
In other words, Doubs looks like a good receiver who is going to become a trusted target for whoever is throwing him the ball. But it's fair to question whether he ever becomes more than a good No. 2 option.
Verdict: Sell
RB Dameon Pierce, Houston Texans
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The Houston Texans are a team in desperate need of a superstar to lead their offense. They may have found one in running back Dameon Pierce.
Nick Chubb, Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs and Cordarrelle Patterson are the only backs in the league that are averaging more rushing yards per game than Pierce this season. He's doing it with an offensive line that's not exactly opening up big holes.
According to Player Profiler's rankings, he's 49th in run block rating, which attempts to quantify the quality of the blocking in front of a running back.
The rookie has more forced missed tackles than anyone in the league over the last two weeks, per PFF. He's also tied for second in yards after contact per carry at 3.1.
It's all evidence that Pierce has what it takes to be one of the best pure runners in the league. The only thing missing is a body of work in the passing game. The Texans have involved him but he hasn't been explosive in it.
For example, he had six catches for eight yards against the Chargers.
That figures to change if and/or when the Texans develop a better overall passing game that actually threatens opposing secondaries and opens up room for Pierce to work. Davis Mills is currently just 23rd in intended air yards per attempt.
Verdict: Buy
LB Devin Lloyd, Jacksonville Jaguars
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Travon Walker might have been the No. 1 overall pick for the Jacksonville Jaguars, but it's Devin Lloyd who has made the immediate impact.
The Utah linebacker is 10th in the league in combined tackles and has been on the field for 97.3 percent of the Jaguars snaps. His athleticism and ability to wear many hats have given the Jaguars flexibility up front which is key as they look to build the defense around Walker, Lloyd and other young talents.
Lloyd has flashed the ability to take over a game. Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network felt like Lloyd was the best player on the field when he watched his game against the Los Angeles Chargers in person.
He had seven tackles, three passes defended and an interception. Lloyd's ball production in coverage is what gives him superstar potential.
The ability to cover the middle of the field is crucial for off-ball linebackers in today's game. If he can consistently lock down tight ends and running backs coming out of the backfield he's going to become a true household name.
There's still a learning curve in that department. According to PFF, the Colts picked on Lloyd to the tune of 10 catches on 11 targets for 83 yards and a touchdown.
Ultimately, he has more games where he's been an asset in coverage than a liability so we'll make the assumption he's going to continue to grow in that area.
Verdict: Buy
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QB Bailey Zappe, New England Patriots
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Fourth-round pick Bailey Zappe has done well enough in two starts to warrant a bit of quarterback controversy in New England.
In two starts, Zappe is 2-0 with a 74.6 completion percentage, three touchdowns, one interception and a passer rating of 112.5. Meanwhile, Mac Jones is just 1-2, completing 66 percent of his passes with two touchdowns and five interceptions with a 76.2 passer rating.
The Western Kentucky passer is the first rookie in the Super Bowl era to win and post a passer rating over 100 in each of his first two starts, per NFL on CBS.
Handicapping the quarterback battle between the rookie and the 2021 first-round pick isn't just as easy as comparing raw numbers, though. Competition has to be weighed in and Zappe has been fortunate to face two struggling defenses in his two starts.
The Browns' secondary routinely lost track of the Patriots' receivers. Hunter Henry, Jonnu Smith and Jakobi Meyers each had 60 yards and averaged more than four yards of separation on their catches, per Next Gen Stats.
The Lions have given up the fifth-highest passer rating to quarterbacks on the season.
So Zappe has done some good things for the Patriots, but it's still much too early to name him a potential superstar. It's likely Mac Jones is able to take his job back and establish himself as the star of the franchise.
Verdict: Sell
WR Chris Olave, New Orleans Saints
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Despite playing in an offense with Jameis Winston and Andy Dalton at quarterback and Tre'Quan Smith and a hobbled Michael Thomas as the other threats to the defense, Chris Olave is the most productive of the rookie receivers.
That was even before his Thursday Night Football performance against the Cardinals and him missing the Week 6 matchup against the Bengals.
Through six weeks of the season, ESPN debuted their new receiver tracking metrics which rates receivers on their ability to get open and their ability to catch the ball. Here's a look at the two scores plotted on a graph by Seth Walder of ESPN:
Essentially, Olave has a similar "open score" to Amari Cooper, Davante Adams and CeeDee Lamb. His catch score is right in the neighborhood of Travis Kelce and Stephon Diggs.
Those are some great names to be associated with.
Perhaps the best indication that Olave is going to be special is how much the Saints passing game already missed the Ohio State product when he was out against the Bengals. In his absence Smith was the leading receiver with three catches for 43 yards and a touchdown while tight end Juwan Johnson was second with four catches for 41 yards.
Olave's ability to separate and come down with difficult catches makes him a catalyst in this offense already. Big things are coming for him.
Verdict: Buy
RB Breece Hall and CB Sauce Gardner, New York Jets
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With four picks in the top 36 selections of the 2022 draft, it was crucial for the Jets to not just find solid players, but stars who could form the foundation of the franchise.
Garrett Wilson and Jeremiah Johnson have been good. Breece Hall and Ahmad "Sauce" Gardner have looked like potential superstars.
While Hall started the season in a time-share with Michael Carter, he has taken over in the last three weeks. He's head 17, 18 and 20 carries with an additional 10 targets in the passing game in that time span.
He has responded to the increased workload with the most yards per touch of any running back in the league and had the first 100-yard receiving day by a Jets back since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2011.
Hall's all-around ability comes as no surprise. He was the No. 1 back on Bleacher Report's final big board, was highly productive at Iowa State and earned the seventh-highest relative athletic score for a running back prospect since 1987, per Kent Lee Platte of Pro Football Network.
On the defensive side, "Sauce" Gardner has been as advertised.
According to Pro Football Focus, Gardner has allowed a passer rating of just 19.5 when in single coverage this season. That's the lowest of any defender under the age of 25.
Gardner struggled against the Cleveland Browns in Week 2, surrendering six completions on six targets for 49 yards and a touchdown. Outside of that, he's been a lockdown corner, including a Week 6 performance against Green Bay in which he only gave up two catches on seven targets for 22 yards.
Garrett Wilson could also cross the threshold into a superstar, but the Jets appear to have two locks in Hall and Gardner.
Verdict: Buy
CB Tariq Woolen and RB Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks
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Much like the New York Jets, the Seattle Seahawks have found their own potential pair of stars at cornerback and running back.
The difference is that the star at corner wasn't taken until the fifth-round.
Woolen slid all the way to the third day of the draft because it was believed that he would be a project. At 6'4", 205 pounds and a poor three-cone and shuttle time, it wasn't clear that Woolen would not have to move to safety.
As it turns out, he's just fine shadowing wide receivers. Outside of his agility, the 4.26 speed, and explosive 42-inch vertical have proven to be physical attributes that not only earned him a 9.7 relative athletic score, but made him an instant success in the NFL.
It isn't just the interceptions that have made Woolen stand out. He leads the league with four, but he's been a consistent lockdown presence on the outside. Opposing quarterbacks have a 35.4 passer rating when targeting the rookie.
Kenneth Walker III got off to a more inauspicious start. While sharing the backfield with Rashaad Penny he struggled to make his mark on the offense and only ran for 58 yards on 15 carries in his first three games.
He's come alive over the past two weeks and had a breakout performance against the Cardinals in which he accounted for 37.1 percent of their total yards in a 19-9 win over Arizona.
Chris Simms of NBC Sports wasn't shy with his praise after the performance saying, "he clearly has the potential to be the best pure runner in the NFL" after the game.
He's forcing missed tackles at the highest rate in the NFL, per PFF. Pete Carroll loves a running back that can help control the tempo of the game and Walker is already showing he fits that mold.
Verdict: Buy
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