The Biggest Championship Hurdle for Every Top-10 NBA Star
Championships are never won by a single NBA player. They are bagged by entire teams. But ring counts among superstars are a driving force behind debates and analysis—for both better and worse. So, gauging the title chances of the Association's absolute best individual talents is forever topical.
It's also why we're here.
This pool of the top 10 stars is pulled directly from Bleacher Report's NBA 100 ranking, which organized players based upon where our panel thinks they will finish the 2022-23 campaign. If you have any qualms with the order, please direct them toward anyone and everyone but me, someone with notoriously thin skin and a fragile ego.
Identifying the biggest championship roadblocks facing each star will not always seek to spotlight individual weaknesses. Once more: Titles are collaborative. This will instead look at the obstacles imposed by the entire team and how each top-10 player factors into them.
And please note: "Team X exists, so Star Y and Team Z are screwed" will not be up for consideration. Every top-10 player is with an organization that fancies itself a 2022-23 title hopeful. Whether those aspirations are deluded isn't the point. (Most aren't.) We are treating these stars and teams as they see themselves and highlighting matters more within their control.
10. Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies
1 of 10
The hurdle: The Memphis Grizzlies prioritizing the bigger picture.
Ja Morant just turned 23, and after signing an extension over the summer, he's under contract through 2027-28—without a player option. His age and allegiance have no doubt informed what can only be described as a lack of championship urgency by the organization.
This past offseason was a developmental flex by the Grizzlies. They traded De'Anthony Melton for Danny Green's expiring contract and the draft rights to David Roddy. They consolidated two later firsts (No. 22 and No. 29) into Jake LaRavia (No. 19).
They let Kyle Anderson walk...on a very reasonable two-year, $18 million contract...to a Western Conference rival. Their biggest free-agency move was re-signing Tyus Jones, their backup point guard. They extended Steven Adams, John Konchar and Brandon Clarke.
Offseason landscapes dictate activity. For anyone who wanted Memphis to quadruple-down on its 56-win season in 2021-22, where was the megasplash?
None of the glitziest names traded—Rudy Gobert, Dejounte Murray, Donovan Mitchell—were good fits for this roster. The Grizzlies had a path to more cap flexibility in free agency, but to what end? The market was barren of both marquee talent and movement.
Still, the Grizzlies arguably went the opposite direction. Some combination of Konchar, LaRavia and Roddy must play a major role with this squad. Clarke and Xavier Tillman Sr. are appreciably more important until Jaren Jackson Jr. returns from right foot surgery.
The Grizzlies remain thin on half-court shot creation from players not named Ja unless Desmond Bane has another leap in him or Ziaire Williams goes kaboom.
Memphis didn't so much stand pat as quintuple-down on internal growth. I respect it. But investments in development come with steep learning curves and don't always yield instantaneous payoffs. And in a Western Conference poised to rain more hellfire than last year, Morant and the Grizzlies are prime candidates to take an immediate step back in favor of (potentially) making a giant long-term leap.
9. Kawhi Leonard, Los Angeles Clippers
2 of 10
The hurdle: durability.
Boiling down Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers' championship equity to fragility feels kind of like a copout. That doesn't make it untrue.
Leonard missed all of last season with a partially torn ACL in his right knee. He hasn’t missed fewer than 15 games since 2016-17, his age-25 season. He enters his age-31 campaign working his way back from a fairly major injury. For all we know, this could be the injury that derails the megastar version of him.
There is no overstating the risk. There is only understating Leonard's criticality. He has routinely ambled his way into the "Best Player Alive" discussion whenever the postseason rolls around and he's available.
Falling back from this when-it-matters-most peak is preferable to any scenario that sees him watching from the sidelines, but are the Clippers built to contend if he's not a top-five player?
Debatable. Paul George is a star. He's also missed a combined 93 games over the past three seasons and always been best suited as a No. 2.
L.A. has plenty of depth and the ability to mismatch opponents into oblivion with downsized lineups that switch everything. But who is its third-best player? Norman Powell? Nicolas Batum? John Wall? Reggie Jackson? Terance Mann? The breadth of candidates is part of the Clippers' charm.
It is also uncomfortable when contemplating how much time they may need to navigate without Leonard and/or George.
8. LeBron James, Los Angeles Lakers
3 of 10
The hurdle: Have you seen the Los Angeles Lakers roster?
Speaking of awkward conversations about a team's third-best player, we have LeBron James and the Lakers!
Last year's squad needed LeBron to clear 37 minutes per game through 56 appearances. That can't happen again. LeBron has yet to show meaningful signs of being mortal, but this is his age-38 season. Rolling him out for 37-plus minutes every night tempts fate and logic and Father Time.
And yet, despite general manager Rob Pelinka's slew of guard acquisitions, the Lakers aren't any better equipped to lighten LeBron's load.
Anthony Davis may be in line for a revenge tour, but he's missed fewer than 25 games just once in the past four seasons. Believe in his availability—and bandwidth to carry offensive units sans LeBron—when you see it.
Russell Westbrook has so far been a terrible fit and begins the season battling a hamstring injury. Bringing him off the bench might help. It also might not matter.
Dennis Schröder just had thumb surgery. Kendrick Nunn will be helpful on offense, but he missed all of last year with knee and ankle problems. Lonnie Walker IV will have to be cast as a wing in certain lineups, because this team is virtually barren of alternatives, and it's unclear how that experiment will pan out. Juan Toscano-Anderson may have to be a closing-lineup staple. One of Damian Jones or Thomas Bryant has to be playable, lest AD have to play the 5 a bunch outside crunch time.
Uncertainty abounds for the Lakers. And even if all the question marks are answered in the affirmative, how many teams are they legitimately ahead of the Western Conference? Failing a Westbrook trade that yields multiple rotation upgrades, LeBron and the Lakers skew more play-in hopeful than title contender.
7. Jayson Tatum, Boston Celtics
4 of 10
The hurdle: Question marks in the frontcourt.
What once seemed like one of the NBA's most formative offseasons from the Boston Celtics has quickly devolved into an overwhelming string of unknowns. Jayson Tatum isn't among the concerns, but the responsibility placed upon his shoulders will be directly impacted by them.
Trading for Malcolm Brogdon and signing Danilo Gallinari injected much-needed shot-creation depth to the rotation. Half of it's gone. Gallinari will miss the 2022-23 season after tearing his left ACL. His absence alone put a ton of strain on the frontcourt. But the Celtics will also be without Robert Williams III until at least Thanksgiving but probably for much longer after he underwent a second procedure on his left knee.
Head coach Ime Udoka's absence factors into the front-line thorniness, as well. He is suspended for the season after an independent law firm "found that he used crude language in his dialogue with a female subordinate prior to the start of an improper workplace relationship with the woman," per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski. There are "no guarantees" he will ever be back with the Celtics.
This ordeal is so much bigger and more important than basketball. For the time being, it also leaves the Celtics without the two individuals most responsible for their league-best defense last season. As John Hollinger wrote for The Athletic:
"Udoka shifted the Celtics to a much more switch-based approach on defense that suffocated opponents throughout the second half of the season, while Williams was the mainstay of said defense. When healthy, he was a more valuable piece even than Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart. Even when Golden State seemingly solved Boston’s defense in the finals, that mostly happened in the non-Williams minutes; he was just too injured to play longer."
Boston finds itself depending on a platoon of age-36 Al Horford, Grant Williams, Blake Griffin, Luke Kornet and Noah Vonleh in the interim. Throw Tatum-at-center lineups in there, too. That's fine if you're worried only about the regular season. But Gallinari isn't coming back, Horford isn't getting any younger and RW3 just needed to play through injury during the team's Finals push.
The Celtics' front line is delicate—and, as a result, so are the team's chances of emerging from the Eastern Conference.
6. Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers
5 of 10
The hurdle: Uncomfortable number of what-ifs up and down the Philadelphia 76ers roster.
In the grand scheme of the championship discourse, Joel Embiid and the Sixers aren't receiving enough attention.
James Harden's absence from this exercise alone is fairly bold. He is in shape, not battling injury and, as far we know, doesn't plan to go on an effort strike while trying to force his way to another team. If we're sure he's done being a top-10 player and MVP, are we also sure he's no longer a top-15 or top-25 guy? Because that's what you're assuming when you write off the Sixers.
Philly has also populated the supporting cast with actual depth! And wings! And shooting! And zero DeAndre Jordan minutes! What could go wrong?
Lots of stuff, actually.
What if Harden is on the stark decline? He is 33 and has logged more regular-season minutes than anyone else since 2012-13. This says nothing of his role during that floor time. He is among the highest-usage players in NBA history for anyone who has cleared 25,000 career minutes.
And about that depth...Is it bankable? P.J. Tucker is 37. Danuel House Jr. took forever to find a home in Utah last season. De'Anthony Melton has his limitations as a backup guard; the Sixers cannot trust him to handle the ball in high volume.
What if Tyrese Maxey doesn't continue his All-Star trajectory? What if the combination of Georges Niang, Montrezl Harrell and Paul Reed doesn't amount to a dependable backup frontcourt? What if Matisse Thybulle actually needs to play?
Oh, and what about Embiid himself? His 14 games missed last year were a career low, and he was banged up beyond comprehension by the postseason. It's fine if the Sixers will go as far as he can carry them. But he needs to be healthy enough to carry them at all.
5. Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets
6 of 10
The hurdle: Can we actually trust the Brooklyn Nets?
Please do not argue that the Nets deserve the benefit of the doubt. The burden of proof is on them, in every way.
Behind-the-scenes developments matter. Kevin Durant reportedly requested a trade over the offseason and then pushed for the organization to jettison both general manager Sean Marks and head coach Steve Nash. Brooklyn gave Kyrie Irving permission to seek sign-and-trade scenarios over the summer; he ended up staying put without a new contract.
All four figureheads are still with the team. Why should we believe this will end well?
This is before we even get to the basketball concerns. KD may be one of the five best players alive, but he has missed more regular-season and playoff games since 2018-19 than Joel Embiid and Kawhi Leonard. Nicolas Claxton may believe Kyrie is headed for an MVP season, but the latter's availability was spotty long before COVID-19 vaccine mandates limited his appearances last season.
Ben Simmons went roughly 16 months without playing meaningful basketball, had back surgery in May and, if the roster construction is any indication, will have to soak up plenty of center reps. In so many ways, his fit with the Nets is uncharted territory.
Both Seth Curry (left ankle) and Joe Harris (left foot) are dealing with injuries to start the season. T.J. Warren hasn't played since December 2020 and doesn't have a timeline for return from his left foot injury. Does this team have enough wings? Can it defend at a high level when only one of Simmons and Claxton are on the floor? Can it manufacture enough offense when both Simmons and Claxton are in the lineup?
Even KD is curious how these Nets will respond to their first dose of adversity. This is to say: He's just like the rest of us.
4. Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
7 of 10
The hurdle: Straddling two timelines is hard, supposedly.
Many might focus on the Golden State Warriors' aging core when poking holes in their title case. Stephen Curry, the living legend, is 34. Draymond Green will turn 33 in March. Klay Thompson will turn 33 in February—and hasn't played a full season since 2018-19.
Harping on that is perfectly fine. But loads can be managed, and the very best player of this core has yet to show signs of decline.
More than anything, youth is more of an unknown than experience. And the Warriors have, even if ever so slightly, increased how much they'll need from Jonathan Kuminga (20), Moses Moody (20) and James Wiseman (21). The latter is the "old" head among the three. He's also appeared in the fewest career games between them.
It isn't yet clear how much the Warriors will rely on the kids. Moody seems the most ready, as a plug-and-play three-and-D wing. But there is a clearer need for Wiseman to sponge up possessions at the center spot behind Kevon Looney and Draymond Green.
Perhaps the Warriors will sparingly lean on the youngsters. JaMychal Green can eat innings at both the 4 and the 5, and Golden State has Donte DiVincenzo to take on secondary wing minutes. But that's hardly enough to bury all three of Kuminga, Moody and Wiseman. Two of them seem like they must be part of the regular rotation.
That at the very least increases the Warriors' wild-card factor. Will the kids develop fast enough, and be effective enough, to warrant managing the workloads of Steph and Co.? Will they, along with Jordan Poole, be able to buy enough minutes when both Steph and Dray are on the bench? Will the defense or offense (or both) take a step back as they go through motions?
Golden State is attempting to toe a delicate line. The long-term benefits are obvious. Whether there will be many—or any—short-term gains is unclear.
3. Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks
8 of 10
The hurdle: Lack of co-star power.
There exists a school of thought that the Dallas Mavericks won't miss Jalen Brunson as much as it seems they should.
Sure, they lose his ability to keep defenses on tilt with complex footwork and changes in pace. And yes, he was very clearly their second-best player last season. But the Mavs are getting back Tim Hardaway Jr., Spencer Dinwiddie played highly efficient basketball after heading over from the Washington Wizards in February, and the acquisition of Christian Wood adds yet another offensive weapon who can generate his own looks or play off Luka Dončić. There are worse contingency plans than what Dallas has in place.
To which I ask: So what?
Dončić needed an upgrade in the sidekick department before the Mavs ever lost Brunson in free agency. Last year's version of Brunson—16.3 points. 4.8 assists per game, 58.3 true shooting—was probably the bare minimum Dallas could get from a No. 2 if it wanted to win a title. And that's only because Luka is a top-five superhuman himself, so supplementing him with non-star partners allows you to get further than if he were a top-20 or top-25 player.
Though the Mavs offense may be deeper, that depth isn't as high-end. Brunson finished 61st in our NBA 100 rankings. Only two of Dallas' other players cracked the top 100 at all: Wood at No. 83, and Dinwiddie at No. 88. Not having anyone else near the top 50, let alone top 60, isn't great for the team's title stock.
A quick scan of the league's most serious championship contenders is proof of concept. Pretty much all of them finished with two to three players comfortably inside the top 50. Dončić may be a 46-50-plus-win machine unto himself, but solo-star acts invariably get you only so far.
2. Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
9 of 10
The hurdle: Can the Denver Nuggets cobble together a playoff-proof defense around Jokić?
Anyone still claiming Nikola Jokić sucks on defense needs to chill. He has great hands and the self-awareness to be in the right spots. He's not Defensive Player of the Year material, but he's also not aimlessly trudging around the half court like he's blindfolded and wearing cinder blocks for shoes.
At the same time, it's fair to wonder whether the Nuggets can build the requisite defensive system around him to get over the championship hump. After all, it hasn't happened yet, and their regular-season rankings since he debuted tilt toward uninspiring:
Hovering around league average the past few years (outside garbage time) is an absolute win. But those returns have to hold up during the playoffs, when opponents have more time to game plan and pick apart your weaknesses. Jokić can still find himself overmatched in select series that invite mismatches or get him on his heels.
Denver is wagering on this year's supporting cast making all the difference. It added Bruce Brown and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope over the offseason, and Aaron Gordon remains in tow. Even Davon Reed can handle some tougher covers.
On paper, this looks like the best possible playoff defense the Jokić-era Nuggets have assembled. Whether that's enough is an entirely separate matter.
1. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
10 of 10
The hurdle: Are the Milwaukee Bucks deep enough?
Depth is officially a concern for the Bucks.
Khris Middleton is out to start the season while recovering from left wrist surgery. The same goes for Pat Connaughton, who suffered a right calf strain. Joe Ingles, the Bucks' most notable offseason acquisition, is working his way back from a torn left ACL and probably won't take the floor until 2023.
Stability at the top will get the Bucks through. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the best player alive, and Jrue Holiday is a certified All-Star. The absences of Middleton and Connaughton won't last forever, either. This team could be whole by the playoffs.
But what does that mean, exactly? Will the Bucks be too reliant on age-36 Wesley Matthews? Can George Hill stay healthy? Is Jevon Carter a necessity? What does a 35-year-old Ingles have left? Do they have enough shot creation off the bench? Enough wing depth? And optionality on the front line to unlock what should be their best playoff units?
Milwaukee offers more bankability in the Wild Wild East than perhaps any other team. That's the benefit of Giannis, a blend of dominance and continuity all his own. On any given night, though, the Bucks may struggle to identify their fourth-, fifth- and sixth-best players. That's not the most enviable—or even tenable—position in which to be.
Unless otherwise noted, stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference, Stathead or Cleaning the Glass. Salary information via Spotrac.
Dan Favale covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@danfavale), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, co-hosted by Bleacher Report's Grant Hughes.
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