Every NBA Team's Biggest X-Factor for 2022-23 Season
The best part of a new NBA season is its capacity to surprise. Even when you spend all summer firming up expectations, players improve or decline in ways that can change the landscape in a blink.
The ones we'll cover here embody the mixture of known and unknown that makes the game they play so great. We're familiar with most of these x-factors, and maybe we even feel confident about what's ahead for them in the 2022-23 season. We should know better than to be so certain. All of them come into the year with a wide range of possible outcomes. As part of that, they're also in a position to make outsized differences for their teams.
Ideally, x-factors aren't stars but players who, depending on how they perform, could lift their team's ceiling or lower its floor. We can't avoid including a few big names, but the goal is to focus on players whose success in a particular role could push their team to a new level.
The catch: They're x-factors because that success is more hoped-for than certain.
Atlanta Hawks: Onyeka Okongwu
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Danilo Gallinari is gone, Clint Capela's rim-protection slipped last season and John Collins has been on the block so long that the various trade machines should all have him auto-selected as part of every fake deal. With frontcourt concerns you'd rather not see on a team hoping to join the contending class in the East, the Atlanta Hawks will need more than the flashes Onyeka Okongwu has shown through two injury-hit seasons.
Even with a sample as small and disrupted by health issues as Okongwu's, his performances makes it clear Atlanta can count on the undersized center to defend, sometimes spectacularly. With a block rate that ranked in the 91st percentile among bigs last year and the mobility to move his feet in switch situations, Okongwu has the potential to anchor a great defense. The Hawks finished 26th on that end last year, so they'll settle for anything that grades out above "abjectly wretched."
Okongwu has so far been totally unwilling to shoot the ball from outside 14 feet. The addition of a jumper would turn him into more than a rolling lob threat on offense, which might open up more playing time, perhaps even alongside Capela in oversized configurations. Okongwu isn't on Evan Mobley's level, and Capela falls short of Jarrett Allen, but just a smidge of offensive versatility from Okongwu could allow the Hawks to create a cut-rate copy of the looks that served the Cleveland Cavaliers so well on D last year.
Remember, this is a player Atlanta drafted sixth overall just two years ago. It's fair to ask for a step forward, if not a leap, in Okongwu's third season. If he misses time and continues to underwhelm offensively, the Hawks may not have what it takes to compete with the top teams in their conference. But if Okongwu improves enough to force his way into major minutes, he'll help address his squad's disappointing defense and give it a shot against anyone.
Boston Celtics: Grant Williams
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Grant Williams has increased his games-started total, minutes-per-game average and scoring efficiency in all three years of his career. The Boston Celtics will need those trends to hold up, and possibly even accelerate, as Williams takes on a bigger role than he's ever had for the defending Eastern Conference champs.
Boston's 4-5 rotation, once sturdy, is suddenly shaky. Robert Williams III underwent another knee surgery in September, and we should expect the Celtics to tread carefully with the player who was most responsible for their league-best defense a year ago (apologies to DPOY Marcus Smart, but we all saw what we saw). Al Horford is 36, Danilo Gallinari is probably out for the year with a torn ACL, Daniel Theis is gone and Blake Griffin was without a contract until the desperate Celtics signed him in early October.
Williams is practically the last (big) man standing.
Few players are better equipped to take up slack for such a varied cast of teammates as Williams, who ranked seventh in the entire league in BBall Index's Defensive Versatility score (among players who logged at least 1,800 minutes) and who shot 41.1 percent from long range on offense. The question is whether Williams can sustain his productivity across more minutes against tougher competition now that he's in line for responsibilities in high-leverage situations and against first-unit opponents.
His 2022 playoff performance, which featured fading effectiveness after brilliant work against the Brooklyn Nets in the first round, makes it difficult to gauge what's ahead. Can Williams level up when his team needs him most, despite limited athleticism and what'll likely be a size disadvantage against most frontcourt matchups? Or will Boston find itself searching for answers if Williams can't be more than a high-end reserve?
Brooklyn Nets: Ben Simmons
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If x-factors are defined by a broad range of potential outcomes, how could we choose anyone but Ben Simmons for the Brooklyn Nets?
Everything is in play for the three-time All-Star who missed all of the 2021-22 season due to some combination of mental health struggles following a 2021 postseason flameout and a back injury. Simmons has an All-NBA nod in his recent past, plus a steals crown and two All-Defensive first team honors. And yet, for him, a return to that high-impact level feels as likely as a hugely disappointing season in which his unwillingness to shoot and uncertain fit on a new team render him a negative asset.
Dominance and disaster are equally likely. Skeptics could point to the general shakiness of this Nets team as a reason to expect the latter. If Simmons' season could really go in either of two extreme directions, it's not ideal that Brooklyn is only a few weeks removed from destabilizing trade demands and Kevin Durant's request to remove its coach and top executive.
Simmons will be trying to get his bearings on a new team (after a year off) in the midst of a whirlwind.
The possibility of redemption is real, as is the potential for Simmons' career to continue down a less promising path. He could be a critical piece in Brooklyn's pursuit of a championship or one of the many reasons that goal fades away amid controversy and upheaval.
Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball
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The Charlotte Hornets won 43 games last year on the strength of a run-and-gun offense that added more points per 100 possessions on transition plays than any other team. LaMelo Ball's hit-ahead looks and creativity in the open floor were integral to Charlotte's success on the break, but this season might wind up being gauged on how well the Hornets' best player handles things when the game slows down.
We're admittedly getting niche on this one—partly because there's just not another Charlotte player who looks like he's going to matter in a big-picture sense, and partly because improving efficiency in half-court sets could transform Ball into a perennial All-NBA presence.
Ball ranked in the 35th percentile in points per play as a pick-and-roll ball-handler last year and the 37th in 2020-21. Though a dangerous spot-up shooter with deep range, Ball isn't nearly as threatening off the bounce. He's also not possessed of the elite stop-and-start burst. To bring those percentile rankings up, he has to prove he can hit pull-up threes and more effectively attack defensive schemes if and when they follow him over high picks.
New head coach Steve Clifford must embrace Ball's open-floor strengths while also putting him in a position to develop his half-court game. The good news is that Clifford's point guard in his last season at the Hornets helm (2017-18) was Kemba Walker, who ranked in the 92nd percentile in scoring efficiency as a PnR ball-handler. Walker was a much different player than Ball is now, but at least there's a precedent of Clifford presiding over a dominant half-court offensive force at the point guard spot.
If Charlotte is in line for a lost season, which seems very likely, it wouldn't be the worst idea to spend it cultivating the part of Ball's game that would mesh best with potential top pick Victor Wembanyama.
Chicago Bulls: Patrick Williams
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Patrick Williams is not short on flashes of brilliance. Unfortunately, the No. 4 pick in the 2020 draft has yet to show he can shine over a sustained stretch. Only intermittently aggressive and plagued by a tendency to fade into the background when playing with higher-usage teammates, Williams is as liable to make your eyes glaze over with listless play as pop open in reaction to one of his highlights.
The preseason, during which his grip on a starting spot loosened but which also included impressive takeover moments, was par for the course.
It's easy to forgive a guy plagued by inconsistency when injuries, over which Williams had no control, interrupted his growth process. After stumbling through 71 uneven games as a rookie, the forward had his second season derailed by wrist surgery. He essentially lost an entire year at a critical developmental phase of his career. That said, Chicago needs to know what it has in Williams—not just because his contributions will matter this season, but also because this isn't a franchise overflowing with young talent.
The Bulls gave up two first-round picks and Wendell Carter Jr. in a package to land Nikola Vucevic in 2021. Carter Jr. appears primed to get some All-Star consideration in his age-23 season, and the first of those picks became Franz Wagner in the 2021 draft. Chicago will surrender its 2023 first-round selection to the Orlando Magic as well. If this team is going to level up on the strength of internal growth, Williams is its best (and only?) bet.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Isaac Okoro
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The Cleveland Cavaliers have four exclamation points and one question mark in their starting lineup. That's a plight most teams would relish because it's hard to lock up one obvious high-end player in the first unit, let alone go into a season assured that 80 percent of the starters are studs. But it also underscores the importance of Isaac Okoro in his third NBA season.
At an athletic 6'5", the 21-year-old Okoro has the look of a three-and-D wing. His shot profile, made up almost exclusively of corner threes and point-blank shots at the rim, reinforces that idea. There's a discussion to be had about whether someone with a role-playing ceiling should have come off the board at No. 5 in the 2020 draft, but that doesn't really matter to the Cavs now. They just need Okoro to make open shots at higher volume and burn most of his calories hassling the opponent's most dangerous wing.
If he flashes some on-ball creation or develops an in-between game, Cleveland will take it. But Okoro's x-factor status is all about whether he can become a star in an extremely limited role.
Signs exist that suggest he's up to the challenge. Okoro improved his three-point hit rate from 29.0 percent as a rookie to 35.0 percent last season. A small step forward will make him an above-average floor-stretcher, though he'll have to increase his attempts from 2021-22's 2.3 per game to make defenses fear him.
In one sense, Okoro should have a relatively light lift on Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen will clean up messes behind him and allow for an aggressive style. But Okoro will also be tasked with the toughest assignment at multiple positions because Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland have greater responsibilities on offense and aren't known as defense-first players.
If Okoro ascends, he'll complete one of the most dangerous first units in the league. If he doesn't, Caris LeVert will be happy to snatch that starting spot.
Dallas Mavericks: Christian Wood
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Spencer Dinwiddie supporters might contend he's the guy who should fill this x-factor slot because the veteran guard occupies the same position as the departed Jalen Brunson and will be tasked with similar ball-handling and shot-creation duties. But even if some hot shooting down the stretch for the Dallas Mavericks last year clouds the picture, we know what Dinwiddie is: someone who can get his own shot and work his way to the line, but who has also never posted an effective field-goal percentage above the league average and leaves plenty to be desired on defense.
Christian Wood is the guy Dallas needs to be its second star, and he comes aboard with a career history that makes it difficult to know if he can handle that gig.
Career per-36 averages of 21.6 points and 11.1 rebounds with a 38.0 percent knockdown rate from three seem to indicate Wood is more than capable of thriving alongside Luka Doncic. His ability to attack off the dribble from the perimeter also makes him a nightmare matchup for opposing bigs. At the same time, Wood's stats have come almost exclusively in the employ of bad teams, and his track record is short for a 27-year-old. It wasn't until the stretch run of 2019-20 that the undeniably talented Wood performed well enough to offset concerns about his maturity and make an impact in the league.
Wood could produce like an All-Star on offense and thrive in a conservative Dallas defense that mainly asks players to be in the right place at the right time, or he could put up more empty numbers and fail to give Doncic the support he needs. Wood won't be the only determinant of whether the Mavs blew it by letting Brunson get away, but he'll be a bigger factor than anyone else.
Denver Nuggets: Bones Hyland
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Nobody in Denver is going to miss Monté Morris if Bones Hyland delivers on the potential he showed in his debut last season.
Fresh off All-Rookie second team honors, Hyland racked up 64 points in 74 preseason minutes and showed growth as a foul-drawer, earning 19 total trips to the line across four games. The confident and aggressive scorer closed with a flourish last year and picked up right where he left off in his first 2022-23 action. Denver has to feel good about that.
The Nuggets' decision to swap out Morris in a deal for three-and-D wing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope was partly about balancing the roster and adding a championship-tested shooter around Nikola Jokic, but it was also an acknowledgement (or at least a hope) that Hyland would be ready for more serious duty in his second season. With Morris gone, Hyland will build up loads of time as the lead ball-handler on the second unit. Assuming Denver affords Jamal Murray ample rest in his first season back from an ACL tear, Hyland should also see plenty of run with the starters.
Defense is a concern, as Hyland graded out as a substantial negative in Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus last year. If he can't hold his own on that end, it'll be more difficult for him to be a helpful contributor overall. Last season, Denver was 3.9 points per 100 possessions worse and posted a negative point differential with Hyland on the floor. Rookies tend to struggle on D, though, and Hyland is saying all the right things about embracing the challenge of two-way play.
A Sixth Man of the Year award is within reach, but so is a difficult second season in which Hyland doesn't improve on defense and merely gives an already elite Nuggets offense a few extra points that it doesn't really need.
Detroit Pistons: Killian Hayes
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It's unfair to say this of a player who just turned 21 over the summer, but this feels like a make-or-break season for Killian Hayes.
The No. 7 pick in the 2020 draft may have already lost the faith of a majority of Detroit Pistons fans after two years of sub-40 percent shooting. To validate the small but vocal contingent of his remaining supporters, Hayes needs to make a leap. If he can score with league-average efficiency, which would mean upping his true shooting percentage from a career rate of 44.9 percent to somewhere around 56.0 percent, the lefty guard can be part of the Pistons' young core. Another year like the last two, though, and Hayes could be on a path to falling out of the league entirely.
A couple of strong preseason efforts kindled hope, but even those games saw Hayes stop the ball to get into his isolation dribble package, which isn't ideal for a low-usage option whose main job should be keeping the offense flowing.
The bar is low for Hayes, who has never averaged more than 6.9 points per game. The payoff, however, remains high. If Hayes can earn a rotation role and make positive contributions on offense, maybe he solidifies himself as a third backcourt option behind Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey, assuring the Pistons will have at least one quality guard on the floor at all times.
Alternatively, he could produce another season like the last two, earn an indelible "bust" label and wind up finishing his career in Europe.
Golden State Warriors: Draymond Green
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Even before he punched Jordan Poole in practice and triggered a full-blown, potentially dynasty-altering crisis, Draymond Green was the Golden State Warriors' x-factor.
Remember, the Dubs started out last year with an 18-2 mark as Green led the charge for a defense that ranked first in the league by a significant margin before he went down with a back injury on Jan. 9. During his two-month absence, the Warriors posted a defensive rating that ranked 11th. He was essentially the difference between a solid defense and one that was good enough to carry Golden State to a championship. No surprise, in the playoffs, the Warriors were markedly better on D with Green in the action. For all the talk of how the Dubs broke the game on offense, their Green-led defense has consistently been the true calling card.
Even if we overlook all the uncertainty about how the rest of the Warriors must learn to trust Green again, or about how he might have lost the ears of his younger teammates, or even about the looming inevitability of the next blowup, there's still the critical matter of Green's age, 32, and the way it was already preventing him from bringing his best on D every night last year.
The Warriors need the best version of Green on the floor to repeat as champs, and they also need to somehow repair the personal connections he fractured. Though nobody is more important to the Warriors than Stephen Curry, Green's combination of indispensability and unpredictability makes him their no-brainer x-factor. He's the guy who's as likely to help win the Warriors another ring as cost them one.
Houston Rockets: Alperen Şengün
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Alperen Şengün averaged 16.7 points, 9.5 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 1.6 blocks per 36 minutes as a rookie. Those numbers delivered on the hype from the scouting and analytics communities saying he was readier to produce than most first-year bigs. The 20-year-old flashed a wide-lens passing eye and a well-developed post arsenal to go with those stats, indicating a high offensive ceiling and the potential to make teammates better—rare skills in a young center.
Now that Christian Wood is no longer with the Houston Rockets, a larger workload awaits. We're about to find out if Şengün can sustain his production over longer stretches and against tougher foes.
Şengün might fare better as a reserve in the short term. His defense against first-unit offenses isn't consistently up to snuff, and offense-only players tend to find their way into sixth-man roles. Then again, the Rockets starters are short on playmaking. Houston hopes Jalen Green will become a first-option scorer, but it'd be nice if he had a facilitator up front to feed him a couple of easy buckets per game.
Houston is still young and very much in tank mode. It could fast-track Şengün's development by slotting him in against starters, where he'd get an education on what's required of that role, take his lumps and probably hurt the bottom line defensively. Call it a "lessons and losses" approach, which wouldn't be the worst thing for a club that may want another high lottery pick to join Jabari Smith Jr. and Green.
Indiana Pacers: Bennedict Mathurin
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Before long, Bennedict Mathurin could be the answer to a key question for the Indiana Pacers. Namely: Other than Tyrese Haliburton, whaddaya got?
Indy's rebuild should eventually include trades of Myles Turner and Buddy Hield, and the assets (likely draft picks) coming back in those deals will be helpful. But teams starting over need foundational pieces. Haliburton averaged 17.5 points and 9.6 assists with a 50.2/41.6/84.9 shooting split after coming over via trade last season. He's certainly one such piece.
Mathurin could be the another.
The No. 6 pick in this year's draft has already shown a penchant for drawing contact and finishing through it around the rim. When he loads off of two feet, the Arizona product absolutely explodes to the basket. There's more here than a three-and-D skill set, and Mathurin's catch-and-attack mindset will help him pile up easy baskets and free throws as he learns the ropes of the NBA game. With Haliburton's 360-degree court vision and willingness to facilitate, Mathurin's bucket-seeking mindset could hardly be a better fit.
Rookies always endure difficult stretches, and Mathurin has yet to prove he can defend and score efficiently over an extended run against pro competition. But if his preseason work is any indication, the Pacers may have their backcourt of the future already in place.
Los Angeles Clippers: Ivica Zubac
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Everyone assumes the Los Angeles Clippers will go small in high-leverage situations, which makes sense. They enter the season with only one true center, Ivica Zubac, slated for rotation minutes and approximately 57 average-or-better wings. He'd probably be this team's x-factor for that reason alone. When a player is his team's first, last and only option to fill a particular role, he matters.
Consider something else, though. What if the Clips can't trust those downsized looks like they think they can? Scan the West teams L.A. will have to beat to make good on its championship expectations, and bigs abound. The Clippers will need size against Nikola Jokic in Denver, Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns in Minnesota, Deandre Ayton in Phoenix, Steven Adams and Jaren Jackson in Memphis, and even Kevon Looney and Draymond Green in Golden State. Good luck wrangling Anthony Davis or trying to defend the rim against a hard-charging Zion Williamson with a bunch of wings.
It currently looks like Zubac will have to play a major role during both the regular season and the playoffs, and that's a concern. The 25-year-old has logged at least 1,300 minutes in each of the last three seasons, and the Clippers' net rating was worse with him on the floor in all of them.
Trusting small-ball lineups against exploitable matchups is one thing, but the Clips might be making a mistake in relying on them to work throughout a brutal playoff gauntlet that'll include a ton of opposing bigs. Zubac is going to matter more than ever this season, despite narratives that he'll be little more than a ceremonial starter.
Los Angeles Lakers: Kendrick Nunn
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If he'd been healthy last season, Kendrick Nunn might have given Malik Monk a run for the title of the Los Angeles Lakers' third-best player. That wouldn't have been much of an achievement considering the damage Russell Westbrook did and the startling number of rotation pieces—Carmelo Anthony, DJ Augustin, Trevor Ariza, Rajon Rondo, Stanley Johnson, Kent Bazemore, Wayne Ellington, Avery Bradley and Dwight Howard—who are currently without NBA contracts.
But it makes Nunn the easy x-factor pick all the same.
After a circuitous path to the league, a 24-year-old Nunn made All-Rookie first team in his debut with the Miami Heat and then averaged 14.6 points and shot 38.1 percent from long range in his follow-up sophomore effort. In that last healthy season with Miami, Nunn developed as a finisher, hitting 69.0 percent of his shots at the rim. More importantly for his role with the Lakers, the lefty also canned 42.1 percent of his catch-and-shoot threes.
Nunn's ability to make an impact in Los Angeles remains entirely theoretical. He missed all of last year with a knee injury and has yet to prove himself alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis.
Do the Lakers have a hand-in-glove fit at the guard spot who can shred the nets on spot-up shots and provide a desperately needed second-side attacker against defenses that load to James? Will he succumb to injury again? Can he meet new head coach Darvin Ham's standard of defensive accountability?
The Lakers have a bloated backcourt with Westbrook, Dennis Schröder, Patrick Beverley and Lonnie Walker IV all vying with Nunn for minutes. If he can seize the largest share after a full year on the shelf, maybe James and Davis will be closer to getting the help they need. If not, Nunn could just another question mark in a rotation already full of them.
Memphis Grizzlies: Ziaire Williams
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Neither De'Anthony Melton nor Kyle Anderson played Ziaire Williams' position, and neither former Grizzly shared many aspects of the rangy forward's game. But by cutting ties with a couple of reliable veterans and replacing them with rookies (Jake LaRavia, David Roddy and Kennedy Chandler) and injured vets (Danny Green), the Memphis Grizzlies telegraphed a belief that Williams is ready for more. Maybe that shouldn't be a surprise considering the amount of faith the Grizzlies showed in him during his rookie season.
Though injuries to other players were a factor, Williams started 32 of the 61 games he played last year, surging down the stretch as he grew more comfortable and averaging 9.5 points per game on 59.6 percent true shooting after the All-Star break. As a rookie, the 6'8" forward's offensive game depended largely on setups from teammates, and Williams made most of his contributions as a spot-up shooter from the corner and as a cutter for backdoor lobs. But the game film and a small sample from last year, in which he shot 61 percent on long mid-rangers, suggest Williams has tools that haven't yet been put to use.
Williams has a chance to give the Grizzlies' second unit a source of shutdown on-ball defense and increasingly self-sufficient offense this season. And they know they can count on him to start when necessary. Big picture, Williams' development into a plus starter would make him an obvious successor to Dillon Brooks, who will hit unrestricted free agency in 2023. A leap could help the Grizz validate last year's out-of-nowhere 56 wins and simplify some potentially thorny free-agent decisions with veteran players.
Miami Heat: Victor Oladipo
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Victor Oladipo is nearly five years removed from his All-NBA peak of 2017-18, but the Miami Heat don't need him to get all the way back to that level. They'll take a continuation of what the veteran guard gave them during a short stretch at the end of last season.
Though it only came in an eight-game sample, Oladipo averaged 12.4 points, 3.5 assists and 2.9 rebounds in 21.6 minutes per contest while shooting 47.9 percent from the field and 41.7 percent from long distance. Those percentages are bound to come down a little for a player who'd never shot over 37.1 percent on threes over any full season, but the counting stats and overall efficiency are attainable. And if Oladipo can perform like an above-average starter, he'll solve what was quietly one of Miami's problem areas last year when Duncan Robinson's (relatively) cold shooting resulted in Max Strus taking over a starting spot...only to shoot 37.4 from the field in 18 postseason starts.
Tyler Herro would be the logical option to start if none of the Heat's shooting guards can seize the position, but that would defang the second unit and give opposing starters another weak link to attack defense. Even if he's not playing as he did five years ago, Oladipo brings much more integrity and disruption on that end. Don't overlook his career average of 2.4 steals per game and All-Defensive nod in 2017-18.
It's dangerous to expect much from Oladipo in the wake of him playing just 60 total games over the last three years. An injury history as long and substantial as his makes the future hazy. That uncertainty mixed with the potential upside is exactly what makes Oladipo such a perfect x-factor.
Milwaukee Bucks: Joe Ingles
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The Milwaukee Bucks used their only meaningful roster-building tool, the taxpayer's mid-level exception, on a player who probably won't even take the floor until 2023. What's more, Milwaukee won't even have a good sense of whether it wasted that contract on Joe Ingles until May or June, when the elevated competition of a deep playoff run will reveal whether the veteran wing has enough left to contribute in the only games the Bucks really care about.
Ingles is a highly accomplished pick-and-roll operator whose hands and savvy make him a better defender than his lack of foot speed should allow, and he's a career 40.8 percent three-point shooter who's cracked the 44.0 percent mark in three different seasons. A Milwaukee offense known for predictability and a "live and die by the three" approach (top six in long-range attempt frequency during three of the last four seasons) needs what Ingles can theoretically provide.
Of course, in decline at 35 and coming off a torn ACL, Ingles is a huge wild card. If he slips at all on defense, he'll give postseason opponents an even easier target than Grayson Allen. The Bucks' preferred drop coverage on defense will provide Ingles with the back-line support he needs, but it's not an ideal situation when you're basically expecting a playoff rotation fixture to fail at the point of attack.
The Bucks have the best player on planet Earth in Giannis Antetokounmpo, and they might have won the whole thing last year if not for Khris Middleton's injury. So it's not quite right to say Ingles will determine the fate of the team that may be good enough to go the distance if he can't contribute. But he's still an all-or-nothing proposition for a squad that has one of the most realistic title shots in the league.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Jaden McDaniels
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Sometimes, a team just comes out and tells you who its x-factor is. That's the case for third-year forward Jaden McDaniels of the Minnesota Timberwolves, a player in whom Minnesota's brain trust believed so strongly that he was practically off limits in the trade for Rudy Gobert.
“We fought extremely hard to keep Jaden out of the deal,” coach Chris Finch told Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic. “Everybody wants Jaden."
Minnesota's affinity goes back even further. Back in May, Finch told reporters: "We need Jaden McDaniels to have the best summer of his life, take a big step forward, have a breakout year. That’s just a good starting point.”
Though Gobert's presence lightens the load of every other defender in the lineup, McDaniels is positioned to make his mark on that end. He checked shooting guards about as often as power forwards last season and was, no surprise, Minnesota's most versatile defender. Anthony Edwards is improving, but McDaniels is the player who'll have to square up with the other team's most imposing wing scorer every night.
The Wolves may be right to view McDaniels as a future star, but he needs to shine in a limited role this season. That'll mean improving on last year's 36.0 percent shooting on corner threes and getting even better as a cutter (67th percentile in points per play last year). Any strides in self-created offense and foul-drawing would be bonuses.
Finally, don't get suckered into believing McDaniels is as sure a thing as the Wolves' messaging suggests. He's only 22 and shot 31.7 percent from distance in 2021-22. So far, all he's proved is that he has the long, athletic frame and demeanor of a defensive specialist. The growth Minnesota expects isn't a given.
New Orleans Pelicans: Trey Murphy III
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It's still early enough in the oft-interrupted first years of the Zion Williamson Experience that the New Orleans Pelicans may not be totally sure what the best supporting cast around Zion looks like. Eighty-five games spread across three seasons is a small and noisy sample to study.
The only certainty: Shooting is a must. Without a spaced floor, Williamson's speed in the open court and pulverizing rim attacks meet with more resistance. He might be dominant enough to overpower defenses that give him the Giannis treatment, but everything gets easier if New Orleans can punish help defenders who ignore their perimeter assignments to wall off the lane.
Trey Murphy III shot 38.2 percent from deep as a rookie in 2021-22 and was particularly lethal after the All-Star break, when he lasered in triples at a 44.3 percent clip. He showed signs of being more than a spot-up weapon in his first season, and Murphy's preseason work featured intriguing off-ball movement and an improved fake-and-go arsenal against closeouts. Perhaps most importantly, he's not an ordinary spacer. Murphy is comfortable firing catch-and-shoot threes from well beyond the arc. If defenders have to honor him from 28 feet, Williamson's driving lanes will look like runways.
The Pels have the potential to construct a top-tier offense. CJ McCollum and Brandon Ingram are huge pieces in that puzzle, but both are more inclined to deal destruction on mid-rangers than threes. They'll work fine with Williamson, but it's Murphy who profiles as the perfect floor-stretching complement to one of the league's most potent interior forces.
New York Knicks: Obi Toppin
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It's been a decade since the New York Knicks ranked in the top half of the league in transition frequency, and they've only slowed down more of late. In each of the past five seasons, they've been in the bottom 10.
The presence of slow-it-down Tom Thibodeau on the bench and the reality of a roster that lacks many burners means New York will probably play at a glacial pace again in 2022-23...unless Obi Toppin changes things.
Toppin may not play more than 20 minutes per game, which would further incense Knicks fans who've been clamoring for him to take over Julius Randle's starting position for the better part of a year. But if he can find a way to expand his role in the rotation, the bucket-hungry floor-runner could give the team an entirely new dimension—not to mention more frequent access to the easy baskets good offenses need. This isn't just some theory; we saw Toppin have exactly this kind of impact in his 17.1 minutes per game last year.
When he was on the floor, the Knicks ran 2.7 percent more often. That may not seem significant at first, but the boost Toppin provided to New York's transition frequency ranked in the 95th percentile at his position. Very few players in the entire league juice their team's tempo as Toppin can, and the overall results are hard to ignore. With the springy, speedy forward on the court, the Knicks offense produced an extra 4.1 points per 100 possessions.
Here's hoping New York gives Toppin enough reps to make a larger impact and, perhaps more importantly, bring some excitement to one of the most plodding offenses in the league.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Jalen Williams
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It seems that even now, after a rapid rise up draft boards, a strong summer league and some stretches of flat-out dominant preseason play, the broader NBA community isn't all the way hip to Oklahoma City Thunder rookie Jalen Williams.
Considering the lack of attention ahead for the sure-to-tank Thunder this year, Williams may wind up toiling in obscurity for a while longer. At some point in 2022-23, those paying close attention will realize the 6'6" wing has the potential to become an All-Star and franchise cornerstone. In that sense, Williams is more than an x-factor for this season; he's OKC's swing piece for the next half-decade or so.
The only collegian to average at least 18.0 points, 4.0 rebounds and 4.0 assists with a true shooting percentage north of 60.0 percent last year, Williams has already shown his numbers will translate in the NBA. Check his preseason averages: 19.7 points, 7.1 assists and 4.1 rebounds with a 68.6 true shooting percentage and a plus-27.1 on-court net rating.
There are young James Harden echoes in Williams' double-splitting drives and powerful finishes. He's creative with the ball, attacks from odd angles and must be honored beyond the arc. It's so laughably early in Williams' career that nothing is assured. All we have to go on are small samples and brief flashes. But at some point, when a player keeps rising and validating the increased attention by tearing up whatever competition is in front of him, giddy enthusiasm is the right reaction.
Orlando Magic: Paolo Banchero
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Franz Wagner would like to be heard on the matter, but Paolo Banchero is probably the most important piece of the Orlando Magic organization. Neither of those two belongs in a typical x-factor discussion, and Wagner's name won't come up again. But Banchero gets the nod here because his on-ball skills at the forward spot matter so much for a club that doesn't get enough shot creation from its guards.
Jalen Suggs simply couldn't put the ball in the basket last year, and he hit just 40.0 percent of his attempts from the field with more turnovers than assists in preseason play. Markelle Fultz still doesn't have three-point range, and Cole Anthony has the lowest effective field-goal percentage of any player to log at least 3,000 minutes across the last two seasons.
Banchero is a combo forward who needs to prove he can be a first-option initiator as a rookie, which is a ridiculously tall order. The Magic are justified in believing he can fulfill it. Banchero was the only collegiate forward to total at least 600 points and 120 assists last year.
If Banchero can succeed as his team's primary playmaker, the Magic can fill out the roster around him in intriguing ways. They'd have the freedom to focus on defense or spot-up shooting from their guards, or they could even experiment with oversized looks that don't feature any true point guards at all. The No. 1 pick's development as a primary playmaker will determine how Orlando builds its rotation going forward.
Philadelphia 76ers: PJ Tucker
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There are no "PJ Tucker types." The 37-year-old vet is all alone as a vagabond installer of toughness and five-position defense (plus corner threes), traveling from team to team and profiling as the missing piece at every stop. His value is easiest to understand once he's gone, when his former team looks for and invariably fails to find a replacement who ticks all the same boxes.
Tucker's last two clubs—Houston and Milwaukee—got worse when he left. This year's Heat still has a gaping hole at power forward.
The Philadelphia 76ers have Tucker now, and he's one of the reasons they look more like a title threat than they have at any point in the Joel Embiid era. He offers the Sixers spacing, shutdown defense against top scorers, a small-ball option at center and a competitive edge few can match. Or, at least that's what his history suggests.
Nothing lasts forever. Though Tucker might seem like the type capable of intimidating even Father Time, age is coming. Actually, it's already here. The only active players older than Tucker with NBA contracts this season are Udonis Haslem, Andre Iguodala, LeBron James, Taj Gibson and Chris Paul.
If Tucker has one more year left in him, the Sixers can win the whole thing. If he doesn't, not only will Philly be stuck paying him for two more seasons beyond this one, compromising flexibility, but it'll also struggle to find anyone capable of bringing what it hoped to get from Tucker.
Everything is riding on one of the league's oldest players staving off the ravages of time.
Phoenix Suns: Cameron Payne
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Lack of depth is an issue for the Phoenix Suns at power forward with Cam Johnson taking over a starting spot for the (probably) soon-to-be-dealt Jae Crowder. Assuming the Suns can't get back another stretch 4 like Crowder, Johnson's promotion leaves Torrey Craig as a likely rotation piece. Craig can't be an x-factor, though, because there's really no mystery about what the journeyman vet will provide: limited, rugged play with a single-digit scoring average.
The point guard spot is the one with the higher variance.
Cameron Payne was a revelation in the bubble and followed that run up by being one of the very best backup guards in the league in 2020-21. He averaged 8.4 points and 3.6 assists while shooting a scorching 44.0 percent from deep. The wheels fell off last year, and Payne, a key factor in the run to the 2021 Finals, lost backup 1 minute to Devin Booker. He averaged just 2.9 points in 11.7 minutes per contest during Phoenix's seven-game loss to the Dallas Mavericks in the second round.
Which version of Payne shows up this year will determine whether the Suns' backcourt is once again among the deepest and most capable in the league...or whether they have to seek out a replacement via trade. With Chris Paul in his age-37 season, Phoenix must also contend with the likelihood that the future Hall of Famer will either miss a few more games due to injury or need nights off for preservative reasons. That'll only underscore Payne's importance.
Portland Trail Blazers: Josh Hart
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Josh Hart's elite defensive rebounding and consistently stellar work around the rim as a finisher indicate he's not your ordinary 6'5" guard. For a Portland Trail Blazers team built around two small and defensively suspect scorers in Damian Lillard and Anfernee Simons, Hart's ability to play big will be vital.
On balance, Hart is simply a better player than either of his main competitors for the starting small forward spot he won in training camp. Nassir Little has potential, and Justise Winslow's defensive versatility will likely make him a key part of Portland's rotation, but Hart's hustle, three-point shooting and underrated playmaking made him the right choice for the Blazers, who presumably want to keep things simple by starting their five best players. That'll leave Hart looking up at many of the more conventionally sized small-forward matchups he'll face, and Portland will have to hope he has the energy to tussle at a size disadvantage while also providing the supplementary scoring and second-effort plays that have defined his career.
The Blazers have Jerami Grant, who made a name for himself as a five-position stopper before evolving into a borderline All-Star, but he'll have his hands full at the 4 (and possibly the 5 against certain matchups), and it's not as if he can guard Kawhi Leonard and Paul George or Klay Thompson and Andrew Wiggins, to name two inter-conference examples.
This could work, and there are worse ideas than betting on the hard-nosed Hart to beat the odds. But he's played five NBA seasons, and never once did he spend more time defending small forwards than shooting guards. At the very least, Portland is foisting a challenge on Hart that he's never faced before.
Sacramento Kings: Davion Mitchell
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The Sacramento Kings don't need to be perfect to end their 16-year playoff drought, which is fortunate because they've assembled a wholly imperfect roster. Or maybe "imbalanced" is the better way to describe a team that should have no trouble scoring but seems assured of making life just as easy on opposing offenses.
De'Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis surrounded by shooting is a recipe for buckets. Those two showed real chemistry in the pick-and-roll and handoff game late last year, and Sacramento will dot the perimeter around those actions with combinations of Kevin Huerter, Malik Monk, Keegan Murray and Harrison Barnes—all good to great long-range marksmen.
None of the players we've mentioned so far profiles as difference-makers on D.
Most likely, the Kings will finish the season somewhere in the bottom 10 on that end. Hopes for something better hinge on second-year point guard Davion Mitchell.
A rugged, predatory on-ball assailant, Mitchell makes life brutal for anyone dribbling in his general area. It's difficult for a small guard to move the needle for a team's overall defensive rating, but the Kings can benefit from the short bursts of chaos Mitchell creates when he harasses ball-handlers. Just watch him singlehandedly blow up the Lakers' end-of-quarter set.
If he can speed opponents up, get them out of their preferred actions and trigger transition opportunities going the other way, Mitchell can keep Sacramento's defensive ineptitude from reaching catastrophic levels. If he can't, the Kings may add another year to their string of lottery appearances.
San Antonio Spurs: Josh Primo
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So far, all signs point to Josh Primo being more of a scorer who can throw in some secondary creation than a conventional point guard. Of course, those signs arose under circumstances that don't usually reveal much.
Primo split his first NBA season between the G League and a 2021-22 San Antonio Spurs team that was circling the drain. Summer league is similarly lacking in revelatory power, although Primo did put up some strong scoring performances (which were riddled with high turnover totals) during the preseason. The point is, if you say you know what the 19-year-old San Antonio picked at No. 12 in 2021 will become, well...you're lying. There aren't many lumps of NBA clay further from their final form than Primo.
The Spurs can't even be sure what position Primo should play, though they have to hope he'll become a lead guard. Last year, he technically spent more time at small forward than any other spot, although he defended shooting guards and point guards more often than he matched up with opposing 3s. Preseason flashes of improved ball-handling and court vision suggest San Antonio isn't just basing its belief in Primo as a point guard on faith. The physical tools are there, albeit in raw form.
This is going to be a season of development for the entire Spurs franchise, and the losses will come in quantities not seen for a long time. Primo's progress, which will hopefully clarify where he should play and how important he'll be in San Antonio's future, is the most attention-worthy aspect of a team most people will ignore after November.
Toronto Raptors: Scottie Barnes
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The Toronto Raptors are running it back with almost all of the principals from last year's team. That means we can expect similarly like-sized, positionless lineups and the ups and downs that come with them.
The ups: plenty of forced turnovers and runout opportunities.
The downs: dreadful defensive rebounding and a half-court offense short on creators.
That last part, half-court shot-generation, is where Scottie Barnes has a chance to bump the Raptors up a level. Last season, Toronto's non-transition offense was markedly worse with Barnes in the game, a potentially noisy stat that belies the Rookie of the Year's solid 3.5 assists per game, but one that also highlights room for serious growth. Somebody has to help Fred VanVleet bend the defense, keep the ball moving and threaten to score in isolation when all else fails. We've been waiting for OG Anunoby to become more of a self-sufficient threat for years, but it just hasn't happened yet. Pascal Siakam averaged a career-high 5.3 assists per game last season, but he's pretty much a known commodity at age 28.
Barnes is the Raptor with the best shot to add another few layers to his game. If he can develop quickly as an initiator and one-on-one option, Toronto's struggles to score against a set defense could become a thing of the past. If he can't, the Raptors probably shouldn't be viewed as anything more than a first-round out. Those half-court buckets are only harder to find against postseason defenses.
Utah Jazz: Collin Sexton
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No one on the Utah Jazz's current roster is under contract for longer or has more guaranteed money coming his way than Collin Sexton, whom the team signed to a four-year, $72 million extension as part of the deal that sent Donovan Mitchell to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
In an offseason that was all about uncoupling, the Jazz committed to Sexton. It's only right that he'll be so critical to the first season of Utah's aggressive rebuild.
The 23-year-old guard's x-factor credentials go way beyond the uncertainty tied to him playing just 11 games last season due to injury. There's also his capacity to score just enough to earn the Jazz a handful of wins they might not want. There were 20 players who averaged at least 24.0 points with a true shooting percentage north of 57.0 percent in Sexton's last healthy season of 2020-21, but only four of them were younger than Utah's new lead guard: Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic, Trae Young and Zion Williamson.
Sexton is no stranger to getting buckets as the losses mount. His Cavs won a league-low 60 total games during his first three years with the team, during which he was often the featured piece of the offense. Utah would take a 20-win pace and solid scoring from Sexton this season. But with plenty to prove after nearly a year on the shelf, the Jazz's likely leading scorer might be poised for an ill-timed (from a team perspective) career year. Of course, there's always the option to shut him down with back spasms if Sexton is running a little too hot down the stretch of the chase for Victor Wembanyama.
Washington Wizards: Deni Avdija
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Bradley Beal has been an offense-first player for years. Kyle Kuzma has had his moments but ultimately falls well short of "stopper" status. Extend the search for defensive heft across the Washington Wizards roster, and only one name emerges: third-year forward Deni Avdija.
The Wizards took a machete to their future flexibility when they maxed out Beal, so they'd love Avdija to ascend for reasons that go beyond the defensive end. His growth into a high-level starter might be the best way for the Wizards to climb out of the league's middle class. But for this season specifically, Washington has to cobble together a passable defense to survive, and Avdija will be key to that effort.
Despite standing 6'9", Avdija spent 19.0 percent of his court time matched up against opposing point guards. He did his best work on wings and forwards, which is why Avdija graded out as Washington's most versatile defender. His ability to slide across the non-center spectrum will be vital in compensating for the loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, who was often tasked with the toughest assignments in 2021-22.
At 21, Avdija is far from fully formed. But he's proved to be a rugged and versatile defensive piece who might only be a reliable three-point shot away from niche stardom among close observers of the league. Washington couldn't care less about how he's perceived in that realm; it just needs him to keep its wing defense from getting cut to ribbons.
If Avdija can't solve that problem, nobody else on the roster will.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate through Friday, Oct. 21. Salary info via Spotrac.
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