Every Team's Biggest Surprise from Our Top 100 NBA Player Predictions
This may reveal a hint of bias, but Bleacher Report's recently revealed top 100 NBA players for 2022-23 is about as accurate as these exercises get.
Thanks to a wisdom-of-the-crowd approach that called for votes from dozens of the site's experts, there aren't a ton of surprises on the list.
Of course, these things are always subjective. And subjectivity lends itself to disagreement. As you or your friends scrolled through the top 100, your eyebrows likely shifted from time to time.
Here and there, the rankings featured some eye-openers. Below, you'll find the biggest surprise for each team.
Atlanta Hawks: Trae Young Below Ja Morant
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Ja Morant is riding high after an All-NBA selection and a seventh-place finish in 2021-22 MVP voting, but Atlanta Hawks fans can't be ready to concede his placement (10th) above Trae Young (12th).
Young led the NBA in both total points and total assists last season. Atlanta's net rating (net points per 100 possessions) was 5.7 points better when he was on the floor. The Memphis Grizzlies' was 3.2 points worse with Ja.
Trae also topped Morant in points, assists and threes per game. His three-point percentage (38.2) was comfortably better than Morant's (34.4 percent) as well. And Young finished 11th in estimated plus-minus, a catch-all metric from Dunks and Threes. Morant was tied for 30th.
Ja earned a lot of praise last season. This surprise is less about him than it is Young, whose impact as an offensive engine may suddenly be underrated.
Boston Celtics: Jaylen Brown Cracks the Top 20
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This one is a mild surprise at worst. Having Jaylen Brown (19th) in the top 20 isn't difficult to defend.
Over the last three seasons, he's averaged 22.9 points and 2.5 threes while providing stingy perimeter defense. And he's just now entering his prime. He had the highest average game score of any Boston Celtic in the 2022 NBA Finals.
But lack of ancillary contributions, mostly as a playmaker, and some of the big names behind him (like Rudy Gobert, Kyrie Irving and Chris Paul, to name a few) might at least draw a shrug from some readers.
This placement isn't necessarily wrong, but "Jaylen Brown: top-20 player" could take some getting used to.
Brooklyn Nets: Only Three Players In
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Betting odds are more of an indication of where money is going (or where the bookmaker would like the money to go) than it is of a team's quality. But it's still noteworthy that only four teams have shorter championship odds than the Brooklyn Nets on FanDuel Sportsbook.
For a bona fide title contender, you'd expect at least one or two more players beyond Kevin Durant (fifth), Kyrie Irving (23rd) and Ben Simmons (48th) on the list.
Twelve teams had more than three players in the top 100. Although star power traditionally leads to success a little more than depth does, it doesn't hurt to have both.
Granted, the arguments for anyone else on the roster to crack the list aren't strong. Seth Curry may have the best case, but he's 32. Nicolas Claxton hasn't shown enough yet. Royce O'Neale is a defensive specialist who played for an underachieving defense in Utah last season. T.J. Warren is a giant question mark after playing only four games in the last two seasons. And while Joe Harris may have had a claim a few years ago, an injury limiting him to just 14 games last season probably eliminated it.
Charlotte Hornets: LaMelo Ball Outside the Top 30
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FiveThirtyEight projects LaMelo Ball (32nd) to collect 11.2 wins above replacement next season. Nikola Jokić, Luka Dončić, Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Jayson Tatum are the only players in the database forecast for more.
With the combination of playmaking (7.6 assists), shooting (2.9 threes on 38.9 percent shooting) and defense (5.2 defensive rebounds, 1.6 steals) that Ball showed as a 20-year old last season, it isn't hard to see why the system is so high on him.
With plenty of development still en route, it's easy to imagine Ball, who was an All-Star last season, being considered a top-30 player in 2022-23.
Chicago Bulls: DeMar DeRozan Outside the Top 30
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DeMar DeRozan (34th) averaged a career-high 27.9 points and made second-team All-NBA last season. That didn't stop him from finishing outside of our top 30, though.
The Chicago Bulls crumbled down the stretch of last season, but that was largely because of injuries up and down the roster. From January 19 to the end of the campaign (37 games), DeRozan averaged 30.2 points and 5.1 assists.
His age (he turned 33 in August) and less-than-stellar defensive reputation may account for this slide. But going from second-team All-NBA (essentially top 10) to outside the top 30 in a few months is a little surprising.
Cleveland Cavaliers: Darius Garland 17 Spots Behind Donovan Mitchell
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Depending on where you are in the "scoring vs. playmaking" debate, there's an argument to be made for Darius Garland (38th) being a better player than Donovan Mitchell (21st).
Earlier this offseason, his 2021-22 numbers topped Mitchell's in a blind poll.
That's far from irrefutable evidence that Garland is superior, but it's enough to make his placement a whopping 17 spots behind Mitchell a head-scratcher.
Again, Garland is the better creator for others. His three-point percentage over the last two seasons is higher than Mitchell's, too.
This may mean more down the line than it does for 2022-23, but Garland is also more than three years younger than Mitchell.
Dallas Mavericks: One Player in the Top 80
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The limitations of the Dallas Mavericks' roster after Luka Dončić (third) have been analyzed plenty, but for a team that probably fancies itself a contender, Luka being the only top-80 player could be a problem. The loss of Jalen Brunson obviously hurt, but even he's outside the top 50 (more on that later).
His replacement (at least in terms of volume, if not position), has an argument to to be a bit higher. Christian Wood (83rd) has averaged 19.1 points, 9.9 rebounds and 1.9 threes per game over the last two seasons.
Spencer Dinwiddie (88th) is probably more revered by some analysts and outlets, too. In 2019-20, a season before he tore his ACL, Dinwiddie averaged 20.6 points and 6.8 assists per game as a starter for the Nets.
Denver Nuggets: Nikola Jokić at No. 2
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Popular consensus has Giannis Antetokouknmpo as the top player in the NBA today, but Nikola Jokic has won each of the last two MVP awards.
Jokic isn't just the league leader in box plus/minus over the last four years—a stretch that includes Giannis' two MVPs. This stretch has bumped him up to second all-time, trailing only Michael Jordan).
Giannis is the superior defender, but Jokic is far better than his reputation suggests on that end. He has the edge over Giannis as a shooter, playmaker and passer.
At the very least, this is more of a debate than ranks all over the internet (including ours) suggest.
Detroit Pistons: No Bojan Bogdanović
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Over the last three years, Bojan Bogdanović (not ranked) was tied for 165th in box plus/minus. Based on that alone, it shouldn't come as a surprise that he didn't make our top 100.
But during the same stretch, the 6'7" forward has averaged 18.4 points and 2.7 threes per game while shooting 39.7 percent from deep. The Utah Jazz's point differential was better with him on the floor, and his overall numbers were right around those of Jerami Grant (65th).
Bogdanović's age (33) suggests a decline is on the way (if it hasn't started already). But being a catch-and-shoot specialist alongside Cade Cunningham in Detroit should prolong his effectiveness.
Golden State Warriors: Stephen Curry at No. 4
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Other outlets have Stephen Curry (fourth) in the same range as Bleacher Report. Among well-known outlets rolling out similar rankings this offseason, ClutchPoints is the only one that has him alone in the top spot.
For proponents of "ringz culture," it isn't hard to make the case that Curry should be No. 1 (or at least closer to it).
Basketball is a team sport, but wins are more influenced by individual stars than they are in other major leagues like the NFL or MLB. And Curry is coming off a championship, Finals MVP and a two-year stretch in which he averaged 28.7 points and 4.9 threes per game while shooting 40.1 percent from deep.
Over that stretch, Curry had a plus-9.4 net rating swing. That means the Golden State Warriors were 9.4 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor than when he was on the bench.
Houston Rockets: Jalen Green Already Top 70
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Jalen Green (70th) is the only member of the Houston Rockets who made our top 100. It's tough to argue that anyone else from the roster belongs yet.
Green's sketchy advanced numbers contribute to FiveThirtyEight's system being low on him. But plenty of NBA players struggle as rookies, and Green has already shown signs that he's figuring some things out.
Over his last nine games of 2021-22, Green averaged 28.1 points and 4.6 threes per game while shooting 42.7 percent from deep. If he keeps that kind of production up, he'll be ranked much higher next year.
Indiana Pacers: No Buddy Hield
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Buddy Hield (not ranked) isn't a lockdown defender. He doesn't create many shots for teammates, either.
He might be just good enough as a floor spacer to make the list on that skill alone, though.
Among players with at least 5,000 minutes, Stephen Curry, Duncan Robinson and Klay Thompson are the only ones in league history who match or exceed both of Hield's career marks for threes per game (3.0) and three-point percentage (39.8).
Even without the ancillary contributions, that shooting has been enough to generally make his teams better when he's on the floor.
Los Angeles Clippers: Only Two Players in the Top 90
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If they can stay healthy, the Los Angeles Clippers should be one of the front-runners for the title this season. However, they're short on top-end talent outside of Kawhi Leonard (ninth) and Paul George (15th).
No other Clippers player finished among the top 90 in our rankings.
Norman Powell (95th), John Wall, Reggie Jackson, Luke Kennard, Marcus Morris, Robert Covington, Ivica Zubac (all unranked) or some other role player may have to outperform their ranking (or lack thereof) for L.A. to hit its ceiling.
Los Angeles Lakers: Russell Westbrook at No. 87
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Life can come at you fast in the NBA.
Five years ago, Russell Westbrook (87th) was the league's reigning MVP. The season before last, he averaged 22.2 points, a league-leading 11.7 assists and 11.5 rebounds for a Washington Wizards squad that was better with him on the floor.
After his averages in those three columns plummeted and he shot 29.8 percent from deep for the Los Angeles Lakers last season, Westbrook now finds himself well outside the top 50.
A philosophical shift that leads Westbrook to embrace playing without the ball, cutting, shooting corner threes and defending could reverse this course (or at least slow it down), but we haven't seen that from him yet.
Memphis Grizzlies: Desmond Bane Outside the Top 50
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Last season, if you sorted every qualified player in the NBA by the average of their ranks in 10 catch-all metrics from around the internet, Desmond Bane (55th) finished at No. 26. The more conventional numbers that led to that placement were impressive, too.
Bane averaged 18.2 points, 3.0 threes, 2.7 assists and 1.2 steals in 29.8 minutes per game while shooting 43.6 percent from three. Considering he did that in his age-23 season, it's safe to assume that he still has room to grow.
Bane has already graduated from three-and-D specialist to one of the game's top 2-guards, but his ranking here may not reflect that.
Miami Heat: Jimmy Butler Outside the Top 10
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Bleacher Report is far from the only outlet to have Jimmy Butler (11th) outside the top 10 this offseason. After ESPN's NBA Rank had him at No. 17, he offered what appeared to be a tongue-in-cheek response to the placement.
Surely, Butler doesn't actually believe 16 (let alone 25) players are more impactful than him. Even 10, the number suggested by our ranking, may be a tad high.
During his three seasons with the Miami Heat, Butler has made a trip to the Finals and averaged 23.6 points, 6.9 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 1.9 steals per game in the playoffs.
In those 42 postseason appearances, Miami was plus-1.6 points per 100 possessions with Butler on the floor and minus-1.2 with him off.
Milwaukee Bucks: Jrue Holiday Outside the Top 30
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If you sorted every qualified player in the NBA by the average of their ranks in 10 catch-all metrics from around the internet, Jrue Holiday (35th) finished last season at No. 16.
Over the last two seasons, he's averaged 18.0 points, 6.5 assists and 1.9 threes per game while shooting 40.2 percent from deep and providing some of the best perimeter defense in the league.
For a team with a heliocentric superstar like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Holiday has been a darn-near ideal secondary (or co-lead) playmaker. Even though he's now in his early 30s, his experience and craft appear to be making up for whatever he may be losing in terms of athleticism.
Over the past two seasons, Holiday's field-goal percentage (50.2), three-point percentage (40.2) and box plus/minus (3.3) are all well above his career marks.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Three Players in the Top 30
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This largely comes down to Anthony Edwards landing at No. 26, since Rudy Gobert (20th) and Karl-Anthony Towns (16th) being in the top 20 isn't all that surprising.
Altogether, though, the Minnesota Timberwolves suddenly having three top-30 players is certainly unusual for this franchise.
Since the start of the 2004-05 campaign, Minnesota has made only two postseason appearances. Now, the amount of talent there (D'Angelo Russell also made our list at No. 80) would make missing the postseason a significant disappointment.
New Orleans Pelicans: Two Players in the Top 25
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The New Orleans Pelicans' roster glow-up may not be quite as dramatic as Minnesota's, but they missed the postseason in five of the six seasons before last.
Now, they have two top-25 players in Zion Williamson (22nd) and Brandon Ingram (24th). They also have CJ McCollum (44th) and Jonas Valanciunas (69th) in the top 70.
If Zion stays healthy, the bigger surprise might be him finishing outside the top 20.
Ingram, who's averaged 23.4 points, 4.8 assists and 2.1 threes per game while shooting 37.3 percent from deep during his three seasons with the Pelicans, might find NBA life easier than ever if Zion is consistently around to command defensive attention.
New York Knicks: No One in the Top 50
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The New York Knicks' acquisition of Jalen Brunson (61st) was among this summer's most ballyhooed moves. Their four-year, $107 million extension for RJ Barrett (59th) got plenty of attention, too. And in 2020-21, Julius Randle (73rd) made the All-NBA second team.
To see all three land outside the top 50 may come as a bit of a surprise for NBA fans.
There's plenty of time for all of them to outperform these rankings. The oldest of the bunch is the 27-year-old Randle. Mitchell Robinson, Isaiah Hartenstein and other young Knicks players could also play well enough to crack the top 100 by the end of the campaign.
But if expect the Knicks to make a push for the play-in tournament this season, our top-100 rankings might have been a downer.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Josh Giddey Outside the Top 90
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Josh Giddey (91st) posted some dreadful shooting numbers as a rookie (41.9 percent from the field and 26.3 percent from deep), but he averaged 12.5 points, 7.8 rebounds and 6.4 assists in only 31.5 minutes per game.
Oscar Robertson and Ben Simmons are the only players in NBA history who matched or exceeded all three marks in their rookie season, and each was at least two years older than the 19-year-old Giddey.
At that age, and with his size (6'8"), feel for the game and vision, it's fair to expect significant improvements. At the very least, having him 21 spots behind fellow sophomore Jalen Green is at least mildly surprising.
Orlando Magic: Three Players in the Top 100
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Last season, the Orlando Magic were 30th in the league in offense, 17th in defense and 27th in net points per 100 possessions.
Now, with the addition of No. 1 pick Paolo Banchero (78th) and the rise of Franz Wagner (81st) and Wendell Carter Jr. (97th), this team suddenly has three top-100 players. They're all toward the end of the list, but that's the same total as mid-tier Eastern Conference teams like the Chicago Bulls, New York Knicks and the Washington Wizards.
If Banchero lives up to the hype and can raise the level of the offense to around where the defense was last season, the Magic might make a surprising push for the play-in tournament.
Philadelphia 76ers: Joel Embiid Outside the Top 5
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The margins between players in the top five to 10 are razor-thin.
Saying that Joel Embiid (sixth) should be higher isn't necessarily a knock on Luka Dončić (third), Stephen Curry (fourth) or Kevin Durant (fifth). All have strong arguments to hang onto their current spots (or move higher), but Embiid is in the middle of his prime and is coming off back-to-back top-two MVP finishes.
More than any of Dončić, Curry or Durant, Embiid is a legitimate defensive anchor who also posts comparable scoring marks. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, Embiid leads the league in points per game, is sixth in defensive rebounds per game and is tied for 14th in blocks per game.
Over that stretch, the Philadelphia 76ers have been plus-9.5 points per 100 possessions with Embiid on the floor and minus-2.4 with him off.
Phoenix Suns: Chris Paul Outside the Top 30
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Chris Paul (31st) was a borderline top-10 player last season. He led his team to 64 wins and secured his third straight All-NBA selection.
Expecting a drop-off for the 37-year-old is fine, but plenty may not be expecting him to slide all the way outside the top 30.
Even though he's lost some of the burst that helped make him an all-time great, CP3 averaged 14.7 points and a league-leading 10.8 assists last season. He still had an above-average true shooting percentage and a comfortably positive impact on his team's point differential.
While Paul may be a step slower than he was in his prime, his experience and craftiness aren't going anywhere.
Portland Trail Blazers: Four Players in the Top 90
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No one individual ranking for the Portland Trail Blazers stands out as a glaring surprise, though the B/R panel might have a little more confidence in 32-year-old Damian Lillard (14th) coming off a significant injury and Jerami Grant (65th) than others.
Altogether, Portland having four players in the top 90 (which includes Anfernee Simons at No. 77 and Jusuf Nurkic at No. 82) after finishing with 27 wins in 2021-22 is a mild surprise.
That's easy to explain away by saying Lillard is back and they acquired Grant this offseason, but the Blazers having more players on the list than the Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Clippers might induce some head-scratching.
Sacramento Kings: No Keegan Murray
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Paolo Banchero was the only incoming rookie who made the top 100, but Keegan Murray (not ranked) is already making a decent case for himself. After averaging 21.7 points and shooting 41.2 percent from three in summer league, the No. 4 pick is now 12-of-17 from the field and 7-of-10 from three in the preseason.
Despite coming off the bench, he's looked like the best player on the floor in multiple stretches during these exhibitions.
With his size (6'8"), smooth offensive game and shooting, it shouldn't be long before he's starting for the Sacramento Kings. From there, working his way into the top 100 feels like a safe bet.
San Antonio Spurs: No Jakob Poeltl
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For most of his NBA career, Jakob Poeltl (not ranked) hasn't done the things that excite the masses. During his six seasons, he's averaged 7.3 points, 6.1 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.3 blocks per game. His career free-throw percentage is a woeful 51.8.
Poeltl has long been one of the game's better interior defenders, though. He also took on more responsibility across the board in 2021-22, posting career highs in points (13.5), rebounds (9.3) and assists (2.8) and top-30ish impact numbers.
Poeltl isn't a star, but he has the kind of gap-filling game that keeps the ball moving on offense, slows down the opposition on the other end and warrants top-100 consideration.
Toronto Raptors: Pascal Siakam Outside the Top 25
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Advanced numbers from 2021-22 suggest Pascal Siakam (28th) is right around where he should be. But his third-team All-NBA selection and the fact that he's in the middle of his prime say otherwise.
If you dig a little deeper into his splits, it's easy to be high on Siakam's prospects in 2022-23.
Over his last 20 games of the season, Siakam earned that All-NBA nod with per-game averages of 27.0 points, 8.8 rebounds, 5.6 assists, 1.3 threes and 1.2 steals.
There had been some growing pains between Kawhi Leonard's departure and that run from Siakam, but it appears that he's fully transformed into the bona fide alpha the Toronto Raptors bet he could be.
Utah Jazz: No Mike Conley
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The 2022 postseason was a disaster for Mike Conley (not ranked).
The then-34-year old averaged 9.2 points and 4.8 assists while shooting 33.3 percent from the field and 20.0 percent from three. The Jazz were minus-9.2 points per 100 possessions when he was on the floor. But that was only six games.
In his 72 regular-season appearances, Conley averaged 13.7 points, 5.3 assists and 2.3 threes while shooting 40.8 percent from deep. Advanced numbers suggested he was a top-30 player prior to the playoffs.
Slotting him into that range would probably be silly, but all of the above makes his complete absence from the top 100 surprising.
If the Utah Jazz continue to lean into their Loserama for Victor Wembanyama and trade Conley, whichever team acquires him will get a dependable veteran who can still operate as a great floor spacer and solid complementary playmaker alongside a ball-dominant star.
Washington Wizards: Kristaps PorziņģisOutside the Top 60
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Despite appearing in only 51 games in 2021-22, Kristaps Porziņģis (64th) finished in the top 40 when players were sorted by the average of their ranks in 10 catch-all metrics (half of which are cumulative numbers). With the Washington Wizards alone, he averaged 22.1 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.9 assists, 1.7 threes and 1.5 blocks in 28.2 minutes per game.
If he can stay healthy—an admittedly big if—those wide-ranging contributions should make him a high-end No. 2 alongside Bradley Beal.
If those two jell and Washington outperforms expectations, having Porziņģis outside the top 60 could look like a miss in hindsight.
