Will NBA Offseason's Riskiest Decisions Pay Off or Backfire?
Before we kick off the 2022-23 NBA season, it's time for a quick look back at some of the riskiest moves of what became a spicy summer.
There were a trio of trades that sent All-Stars packing for returns that included three or more first-round picks, despite the fact that the teams sending those picks out were either eliminated in the first round or didn't make the 2022 playoffs at all.
We also saw a player earn the second-biggest contract in NBA history even though he didn't make the 2022 All-Star team. Additionally, a player who most thought would be moved was surprisingly brought back, despite a disastrous debut with his title-hopeful team last year.
For these five riskiest moves of the 2022 offseason, which ones will actually pay off, and which will backfire on the teams that made them?
Hawks Give Up Three 1st-Round Picks for Dejounte Murray
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The Atlanta Hawks kicked off the first of three blockbuster trades by acquiring Dejounte Murray from the San Antonio Spurs for a 2023 first-round pick (top-16 protected, via Charlotte Hornets), 2025 and 2027 unprotected firsts, the right to swap 2026 firsts and veteran forward Danilo Gallinari.
Three first-round picks is a hefty amount, especially for a player who's made just one All-Star appearance and only has two years remaining on his contract.
Breaking this deal down, however, makes everything look more reasonable for Atlanta, especially since they only had to give up two of their own picks. Trae Young will still be under contract when those picks convey in 2025 and 2027, meaning Atlanta should at least be competitive no matter who else is on the roster.
Gallinari has unfortunately since torn his ACL, and he wasn't even a lock to stay on the Hawks roster had he stayed. Atlanta didn't have to give up any other players in the deal, so swapping a player who's now projected to miss the entire 2022-23 season for an All-Star guard in Murray is a huge upgrade.
Atlanta's offense took a nosedive when Young was on the bench last season (119.3 offensive rating with Young in the game compared to 109.4 when he sat). Murray is an excellent playmaker who can now buoy the team in these minutes.
The contract situation is tricky given that both sides will have to go to unrestricted free agency in 2024 to get Murray the max deal he'll almost certainly receive, but this still gives the Hawks two years to convince him to re-sign.
After winning just a single playoff game, Atlanta needed to make a splash this offseason and not just rely on its own young talent base. Trading Kevin Huerter in a deal for a 2024 protected first-round pick from the Sacramento Kings helped restock some trade ammo, and there's more talent around Young and Murray (John Collins, Clint Capela, De'Andre Hunter, Onyeka Okongwu, AJ Griffin) that can be used in future deals.
Pay Off or Backfire?: Pay off. The Hawks got exactly what they needed in Murray as a playmaker and wing defender without having to bleed their assets dry.
Wizards Give Bradley Beal $251 Million, No-Trade Clause
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If it weren't for Nikola Jokic's new extension with the Denver Nuggets, Bradley Beal's five-year, $251 million contract would be the largest in NBA history.
The problem? While Jokic is a back-to-back MVP, Beal didn't even make the Eastern Conference All-Star team last season after his scoring dropped to its lowest output in four years (23.2 points per game).
Beal is a terrific player, one of the NBA's best shooting guards and does have three All-Star appearances in his 10 seasons, but he's not a franchise player like Jokic, Stephen Curry, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Luka Doncic or others who have also signed $200-plus million deals. At age 29, we have a good idea of what Beal is—ideally a No. 2 option on a championship team.
Beal hasn't shown the ability to lead a franchise deep into the playoffs. His three-point shooting has tailed off during recent years, and Beal's never been a lock-down defender.
With this new contract, however, the Wizards were forced to pay him like a No. 1 option, as well as include a no-trade clause and 15 percent trade kicker. If Washington eventually decides it wants to trade Beal, he'll have to give his blessing to make any deal happen.
With the Eastern Conference now loaded with improved teams in Atlanta, Cleveland, New York, and Philadelphia, the Wizards would be lucky to simply make the play-in tournament.
Washington is stuck in the middle, which is where no franchise wants to be. This isn't a team talented enough to win a playoff series, nor is it bad enough to land a top prospect like Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson.
The Wizards should have worked to find a sign-and-trade option for Beal instead, routing him to a team with championship hopes while getting some draft picks and young talent back in return.
Washington is set to waste another season of Beal's prime with no true co-star, no elite young talent to build around and now no power to trade Beal without his permission.
Pay Off or Backfire?: Backfire. A sign-and-trade deal would have been best for everyone.
Donovan Mitchell Ends the Cavs' Rebuild
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Donovan Mitchell ending up in Cleveland instead of New York sent shockwaves around the NBA.
After all, the Cavs only possessed three tradable future first-round picks—a far cry from the treasure trove of assets the Knicks possessed.
Seeing a small-market team like the Cavs make such a deal was unusual, as Cleveland had to give up three unprotected firsts in 2025, 2027 and 2029, two first-round pick swaps in 2026 and 2028, as well as Collin Sexton (via sign-and-trade), Lauri Markkanen and No. 14 overall pick Ochai Agbaji.
Still, the benefit for the Cavaliers is easy to see.
Mitchell gives a core with almost no playoff experience a 26-year-old with 39 postseason contests over the past five years. And Mitchell's playoff appearances have been impressive, as he's proven himself as a bona fide No. 1 option by averaging 28.3 points per game.
Additionally, Mitchell has three guaranteed years remaining on his contract. That means the Cavs can shop him ahead of free agency for a nice return if things don't work out after the first two seasons. They have Mitchell for his age 26, 27 and 28 seasons, all while keeping their three most important young players—Darius Garland, Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen.
All three (plus Mitchell) will be under contract when the first pick is owed in 2025. If Mobley signs a five-year max when he's eligible that summer (a contract no player has ever turned down), then Cleveland will have him until 2030 with Garland's new max extension running through 2028. This means all of the picks the Cavs owe to Utah will be due in a year where at least one of Mobley, Garland, Allen, Mitchell (and as many as all four) will be under contract, giving some insurance to a potential rebuild.
Of course, if Mitchell is happy growing with this core and re-signs in 2025, these owed picks really won't carry much value—something the Cavs are banking on.
With reports about Sexton potentially taking the qualifying offer in Cleveland this year and Markkanen not looking like a core member of the organization, this was a hefty (but worthy) price for the Cavs to pay.
Pay Off or Backfire?: Pay off. The Cavs can let this young core cook together for two years and then evaluate where Mitchell stands before heading into the final season of his contract in 2024-25.
Lakers Keep Russell Westbrook
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Sometimes the riskiest move a team can make is doing nothing, especially if nothing correlates to wasting yet another season of a 37-year-old superstar's final remaining years.
This is precisely what the Los Angeles Lakers are doing by keeping Russell Westbrook, who was absolutely abysmal as the starting point guard in their 33-49, 11th-place season a year ago. The 33-year-old hasn't ranked above the 38th percentile in offensive swing rating since he was a member of the Oklahoma City Thunder, and Westbrook's style of play simply isn't going to improve with age.
He's clearly heard the trade rumors, telling ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, "I don't need to (feel wanted). I need to just do my job. Whether I'm wanted or not doesn't really matter."
This just isn't a good situation for anyone. New head coach Darvin Ham can say all the right things and try to squeeze Westbrook into his system as much as possible, but that would involve getting Westbrook to change—good luck with that.
Adding Patrick Beverley via trade and Dennis Schroder in free agency gives this team enough ball-handlers to go along with LeBron James and Kendrick Nunn, meaning this team no longer needs Westbrook as a table-setter and would benefit by adding a better three-point shooter and defender in his place.
Keeping Westbrook instead of moving him in a package to try and get a haul like Myles Turner and Buddy Hield from the Indiana Pacers or Mike Conley Jr., Jordan Clarkson and Malik Beasley from the Utah Jazz is wasting one of James' elite seasons he has left, especially with just two guaranteed years remaining on his deal.
Outside of the 2020 title, this Lakers team has been a disaster with James and could be headed for a third lottery trip in five years.
Trading Westbrook along with draft capital is the best way for the Lakers to improve, and they've refused to do it.
Pay Off or Backfire?: Backfire. It's baffling that Westbrook is still on this roster, as James is headed for another wasted season given the lack of talent around him.
Timberwolves Go All-In for Rudy Gobert
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No one can argue Gobert's elite defensive and rebounding ability, but who exactly were the Wolves bidding against that they needed to surrender four first-round picks, five players and a pick swap to land the 30-year-old center?
The Brooklyn Nets only gave up three first-rounders (along with Caris LeVert, Jarrett Allen and Taurean Prince) to acquire James Harden, who was coming off three consecutive scoring titles at the time.
Four first-rounders, including three unprotected and a top-5 protection on the 2029 selection, was an absurd amount to pay, especially while sending out players like Patrick Beverley, Malik Beasley, Jarred Vanderbilt, Walker Kessler and Leandro Bolmaro. Again, what offer did Minnesota need to beat?
That being said, the Wolves are going to be really good this season. Gobert is a walking top-10 defense by himself, while Karl-Anthony Towns, Anthony Edwards and D'Angelo Russell provide enough offensive pop to have this team competing for homecourt advantage in the first round.
Unlike with the Atlanta Hawks and Dejounte Murray, however, Minnesota is now extremely limited on other options to upgrade the team. There's no more tradable first-round picks, and Jaden McDaniel stands as the best asset left to move.
There's no guaranteeing this two-center lineup with Towns and Gobert will work, although the former's three-point shooting ability should give everyone the space they need.
Giving up so much would ideally transform the Wolves into one of the top championship-contending teams. Yet, they're probably a tier or two below that for now.
Pay Off or Backfire?: Ehhh, backfire is a strong word, as Minnesota is going to become a regular in the West playoffs for years to come. However, this isn't a title-worthy roster, and the Wolves could eventually regret giving up so much for a third option.
