2012 Gator Bowl: Why Ohio State Will Avoid First Losing Season in 23 Years

Big Ten Bowl Preview Extravaganza – Part 7 of 10

Although a pairing of 6-6 teams on the New Year's bowl slate usually would be cause for turning the channel, the "Urban Meyer" bowl features two high-power programs struggling to make some positive out of a tough year.

Ohio State's demise began over a year ago when it was revealed that multiple players received impermissible benefits. The last year saw the firing of coach Jim Tressel, numerous player suspensions and the recently added NCAA sanctions that will make this the last bowl game until after the 2013 season.

Meanwhile, Florida struggled mightily in the first year under new coach Will Muschamp. Despite the return of senior QB John Brantley and the tutoring of experienced offensive coordinator Charlie Weis, the Gators never figured out how to make the offense click against good competition.

With two coaches defecting from Florida to head to Ohio State, the Gators would like nothing more than to send their new destination home with a loss.

Let's take a look at the five keys to Buckeye success against the Gators in the appropriately named Gator Bowl.

No. 1: Ohio State Must Open Up the Offensive Playbook like in the Michigan Game

Although freshman QB Braxton Miller took over the starting job until the fourth game of the season, he failed to pass for more than 135 yards in any game until the finale against Michigan.

The offensive play calling was even more conservative than under the previous Jim Tressel regime probably because of the freshman quarterback.

However, the long-time offensive coordinator Jim Bollman opened the playbook up significantly against Michigan when Ohio State had nothing to lose but a seven-game winning streak against the Wolverines. This strategy paid off as Miller showed he can throw efficiently with 14-of-25 passing for 235 yards and two touchdowns.

With nothing to lose in a bowl game (Bollman is not being retained by Meyer), there's no reason to expect anything different against the Gators. With senior WR DeVier Posey back from his 10-game suspension, Miller has a legitimate deep threat that can challenge the speedy Florida defenders in this game.

Look for Florida to stack the box and spy on Miller to try and prevent big gains in the running game, but Ohio State will still be successful if the playbook allows Miller to beat the Gators with his arm.

No. 2: The Remaining Players of the "Tattoo Five" Must Dominate Another Bowl Game

Last year, the five players who received improper benefits were granted a special exemption to play in the Sugar Bowl against Arkansas. Although that win was later vacated, these five Buckeyes led the team in all aspects of the game.

Even without QB Terrelle Pryor, the remaining four players who started the mess that was 2011 can leave the program with a little redemption now that are senior leaders on the team.

RB Dan Herron drives the running game and WR DeVier Posey draws the best coverage away from the younger receivers. Mike Adams anchors the offensive line, and Soloman Thomas has contributed more on defense this season after minimal play in 2010).

These players can make a difference once again to give the program a second straight "first win" against an SEC team in bowl play. If Herron, Posey and Adams have poor or even mediocre games, the Ohio State offense will collapse and let Florida run away with the game.

No. 3: The Buckeye Defense needs to Avoid Giving Up the Big Play

Ohio State's defense played well on the whole in 2011, but the unit struggled to overcome major injuries that knocked out linebackers for some games and DE Nathan Williams for the season. The defense also came close to making many more interceptions, but the linebackers and defensive backfield always seemed to drop these picks.

The biggest problem with the Ohio State defense was giving up big plays for opposing offenses. From the Miami game to the Michigan game, each loss included at least two big plays (25-plus yards) that led to decisive scores.

The Silver Bullet defense must remove these big plays, especially against a speedy team such as Florida. The 2006 BCS Championship was decided when Ohio State failed to make fundamental plays such as open-field tackles, which led to too many big plays in a Florida romp. One would have to imagine Luke Fickell spent extra time coaching up his defense during bowl practices to get them ready for the Florida attack.

If Ohio State can get John Brantley out of his comfort zone, Muschamp may turn to two freshman quarterbacks Jacoby Brissett and Jeff Driskel to set up the future of the program. However, these freshmen are not as ready as Miller to lead a team to victory, so the key to stopping big plays may be getting Brantley out of the game.

No. 4: Ohio State Cannot Afford Any More Injuries

Just this week, it was announced that TE Jake Stoneburner will likely be missing most of the Gator Bowl.

Stoneburner only has 14 catches on the season, but seven of those have gone for touchdowns. To this end, Stoneburner has given the Ohio State offense a safety valve in the passing game that has not been present often in the past decade.

His loss will be felt by a thin receiver crew with only one proven receiver (Posey). Meanwhile, the defense has been racked by injuries this season. Particularly in the linebacker corps, where Andrew Sweat is recovering from a concussion and Jordan Whiting is out for the season, the Buckeyes do not have regular backup players ready to go should another injury occur.

On the bright side, the Florida offense has been nearly as ineffective as Ohio State, ranking only five spots ahead of the Buckeyes at 102nd out of 120 teams. Even with some unknown freshman players stepping in, the Buckeyes may still be able to be effective if good open field tackles are made.

But the road to victory is much clearer if the Buckeyes stay away from the injury or cramping bug that sometimes hits in bowl games after a few weeks of inactivity.

No. 5: The Gators Cannot Be Allowed Multiple Long Drives

Ohio State seemingly has rallied around the controversy, although the results on the field faltered at the end of the season. On the other side of the field, Florida appears to be a mentally fragile team that needs some things to go right to gain the confidence to play up to its potential.

Thus, the worst thing that could happen for the Buckeyes is to give Florida that confidence to start playing freely and loosely. Ohio State knocked out a much better Arkansas team early last year, and a similar good start will be required to keep Florida doubting themselves in this game.

In addition, this Buckeye defense is prone to wearing down if Florida is permitted to stay on the field for numerous long drives. Ohio State should counter this possibility by focusing on grinding with the running game and extending long drives against the Gators defense. With a quick start, Ohio State should roll to victory.

Game Prediction

Ohio State will not deliver the knockout punch early, as Braxton Miller will throw an early interception to set up a go-ahead score for Florida. However, Ohio State will use their better running game to roll up more offense than the Gators over the first portion of the game. But the game will remain close heading into the fourth quarter.

Then, just when the Gators make a play to take the lead, Braxton Miller will cement himself as the quarterback of the future with another comeback drive to win the game.

Look for Dan Herron and DeVier Posey to play major roles in moving the Buckeyes down the field for the winning score. The Bucks win a defensive showdown late.

Ohio State 20, Florida 17.

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David Fitzgerald II is a Big Ten Football Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.  Follow him on Twitter for new article updates @BuckeyeFitzy