Answering the Biggest Question Marks Ahead of the 2022 MLB Playoffs
With all 12 spots secured and the games set to begin on Friday, it's time to get up to speed on Major League Baseball's 2022 postseason.
Got questions? Well, we've got answers.
That is, we have answers to what we think are the biggest looming questions hanging over each of the dozen teams slated to take part in this year's playoffs. These concern what, if any, concerns or weaknesses they have and how they might overcome them.
We'll go one team at a time, beginning in the American League and ending in the National League.
Houston Astros: Where Are Their Weaknesses?
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Short Answer: Squint and you'll see them.
The Houston Astros would seem to be as juggernaut-y as juggernauts get.
They're 104-56 with a plus-208 run differential. Their offensive foursome of Yordan Álvarez, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker is downright intimidating, and the same is likewise true of co-aces Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez. The whole team has playoff experience in abundance.
But while this amounts to a short list of things for Houston to worry about, it's not altogether empty.
One concern is that this year's offense isn't as strong as the elite iterations of 2017, 2019 and 2021. That's no thanks to relative shortcomings at catcher, first base and center field, plus sweet-swinging Michael Brantley's absence with shoulder surgery.
Although Houston's bullpen has MLB's lowest ERA at 2.81, Ryan Pressly isn't the scariest closer out there, either. He's generally good but also occasionally hittable, and he's been scored on in four of his last 11 appearances.
New York Yankees: What Can They Do to Keep Teams from Pitching Around Aaron Judge?
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Short Answer: There might be at least one thing they can do.
The New York Yankees are only 37-38 since they got off to a historic 61-23 start, but their AL-best plus-242 run differential remains a good excuse to be high on their chances to return to the World Series for the first time since 2009.
In theory, it also helps to have the scariest hitter in baseball. That's Aaron Judge, who's gone off for a stellar .311/.426/.686 slash line and an AL-record-tying 61 home runs.
But what if beating the Yankees in the playoffs is as simple as pitching around Judge?
This method has recently been getting a sort of test, as the 6'7", 282-pound slugger has walked 17 times over his last 11 games. Kudos to him for being willing to take those free passes, but he's otherwise gone cold while collecting only six hits and one homer.
Though the Yankees have won seven of these games, it hasn't exactly been by way of a sustained offensive onslaught. That's their cue to take preemptive measures, such as, say, moving Judge out of the leadoff spot and back into the No. 2 hole.
Cleveland Guardians: Can Their Offense Keep Up?
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Short Answer: Somebody might have to pull a 2015 Daniel Murphy.
Even though the Cleveland Guardians are 90-70 and the champions of the AL Central, it's doubtful that anyone sees them as the team to beat in the American League.
The Astros and Yankees exist, after all, and both won their season series against the Guardians. There's also the matter of the AL Central's recent history in October. Since 2017, representatives from the division are 4-19 in the playoffs.
Perhaps an even bigger concern is whether the Guardians have the power for a deep run.
They've hit only 126 home runs all season, ahead of only the Detroit Tigers. Seeing as hitting the long ball has tended to correlate with success in the last 10 postseasons, this is a potentially catastrophic weakness.
To be fair, the Guardians' collective talent for making contact might allow them to zig their way to the World Series while everyone else zags. Failing that, they may need somebody to unexpectedly help out 29-homer slugger José Ramírez in the power department.
Toronto Blue Jays: Can They Hang with Teams Their Own Size?
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Short Answer: They can if they keep playing like they have lately.
There's perhaps no better distillation of the hype that the Toronto Blue Jays carried into the 2022 season than the fact that they opened with the best odds of making the World Series of any American League team. It's thus kind of a letdown that the Blue Jays are only going into the playoffs as a wild card rather than as the AL East champions.
Among their more specific letdowns is a general struggle to punch within their weight class.
Toronto is 51-23 against losing teams but only 39-46 against other winning teams. Notably, the Jays lost their season series to the Yankees, Guardians, Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays.
Damning? You bet. But their doom? Not necessarily.
Toronto is coming in hot, having won 29 of 44 dating back to Aug. 18. Since this run includes a 15-10 performance against teams with .500 or better records, there's reason to hope that the Jays will be able to pick on teams their own size after all.
Seattle Mariners: How Healthy Are Eugenio Suárez and Julio Rodríguez?
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Short Answer: It's a fingers-crossed situation.
For the first time in 2001, the Seattle Mariners are back in the playoffs. That alone is worthy of proper celebration, up to and including a dance party.
Now comes the hard part of going where the Mariners have never been since the franchise was born in 1977: the World Series.
What could ultimately determine whether the M's get there is whether they can conjure enough offense to support one of the better pitching staffs in MLB. That could hinge on the well-being of the two stars in an otherwise mediocre run-scoring offense.
They would be third baseman Eugenio Suárez and rookie center fielder Julio Rodríguez, both of whom are only recently off the injured list. The former missed time with a broken right index finger, while the latter had to sit with a back strain.
As Rodríguez came off the IL on Monday and Suarez has been hitting the ball hard since his own return last Tuesday, both could be in worse spots with the playoffs looming. Yet if either has any setbacks, it's hard to imagine that the Mariners wouldn't be in trouble.
Tampa Bay Rays: Why Should Anyone Believe in Them At This Point?
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Short Answer: It's just never a good idea to count out the Rays.
If there's a team in the American League playoff field that looks lucky to be there, it's certainly the Tampa Bay Rays.
They got to within 3.5 games of the Yankees when they were 78-58 on Sep. 9, but they've won only eight of their last 24 games. The offense has been in a rut, while supposed ace Shane McClanahan has pitched to a 5.21 ERA since returning from a shoulder injury.
As excuses to count out the Rays go, this one isn't bad. Another is the extensive list of actual injuries and lesser aches and pains they're dealing with right now.
And yet, selling low on the Rays nonetheless feels like a mistake.
It's worth having faith in any offense captained by Wander Franco and "Playoff Randy" Arozarena. Jeffrey Springs is an underrated hurler. Tyler Glasnow's return from Tommy John surgery is a potentially huge development. Even McClanahan isn't as mortal as he suddenly seems, as his fastball velocity has been holding strong despite his struggles.
Los Angeles Dodgers: Who Can They Trust to Close?
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Short Answer: Well, it definitely isn't Craig Kimbrel.
The Los Angeles Dodgers are a 110-win team with a plus-332 run differential, so it's not at all out of bounds to call them one of the greatest regular-season teams in MLB history.
As for whether they can keep rolling in the postseason, "yes" is the safe bet. In the best offense around and a starting rotation with a league-best 2.80 ERA, the Dodgers have two things that bode well for October success.
But if you're wondering who's going to get the ever-crucial last three outs for them, "good question" is about the only answer anyone can provide right now.
Eight-time All-Star Craig Kimbrel was closing games for the Dodgers, but he pitched his way out of the job in September. Sans an obvious Plan B, it's now a closer-by-committee situation.
Because he can get his fastball up to 103 mph, Brusdar Graterol surely has the best arm for the job. Yet given that he's struck out 77 while allowing only two home runs over 63 innings, Evan Phillips would be our guy if we were pulling the levers in manager Dave Roberts' head.
Atlanta: Can Anything Stop a Repeat?
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Short Answer: Maybe just history at this point.
Atlanta has the best record in MLB since June, and it's fresh off a sweep of the New York Mets that all but secured the NL East title. So, yeah, things are going well.
So well, in fact, that the only question now might be if anything can stop Atlanta from repeating as World Series champions.
This is where we have little choice but to pick nits, starting with the all-or-nothing quality of Atlanta's offense. Its ability to hit the long ball is beyond dispute, but its .317 on-base percentage is nothing special. Some key guys—namely, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Austin Riley—have been cool since the start of September, too.
Pitching-wise, Atlanta's worries include breakout ace Spencer Strider's oblique injury and Kenley Jansen's occasional unreliability in the ninth inning. He's on a good run now, but it wasn't long ago that he had an 11-appearance stretch in which he pitched to a 7.45 ERA.
Again, though, this is just nit-picking. As nobody has repeated as World Series champions since the 1998-2000 Yankees, recent history may be the only thing going against Atlanta.
St. Louis Cardinals: Will Paul Goldschmidt Snap Out of His Funk?
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Short Answer: It's weirdly hard to count on it.
The St. Louis Cardinals might be an even bigger October threat than their 92-67 record makes them out to be. They've been full speed ahead for a while now, having won 41 of 62 since July 27.
But the hitter who's supposed to be their best has been one of their worst as of late.
As recently as Sep. 7, Paul Goldschmidt was on Triple Crown watch courtesy of a .329 average, 35 home runs and 108 runs batted in. That talk has basically gone "poof" as he's hit only .254 with no homers and six RBI in 20 games since then.
Bad luck? Not so much, actually. The veteran's strikeout rate has spiked to 27.3 percent in this span, during which fastballs against him have moved conspicuously more inside:
Because Goldschmidt has slugged just .320 against heaters on the inner half since the start of September, this strategy is clearly working. As such, him getting hot again is contingent on him making an as-of-yet unmade adjustment.
New York Mets: Are Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer Enough?
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Short Answer: Maybe not, if recent events are any indication.
Though the Mets took a punch to the gut in Atlanta this past weekend, perhaps it's some consolation that their 98-61 record would be good enough to lead three other divisions?
If nothing else, the Mets are still worth believing in because of Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer. The two right-handers have five Cy Young Awards between them, not to mention a combined 2.83 ERA and 11.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio since deGrom came off the IL back on Aug. 2.
But while this ace duo is unbeatable in concept, reality has painted a different picture. The Mets are only 10-10 in the last 20 games started by deGrom and Scherzer.
That hints at the shortcomings of their roster, particularly on the offensive side. The Mets are very good at putting runners on base, but a relatively pedestrian power supply is one reason why getting them home has been more of a challenge.
The sweep at the hands of Atlanta was a useful illustration of why the Mets can't simply rely on deGrom and Scherzer to win games. They did their jobs just fine, but it was for naught as the Mets were out-homered 7-3 and outscored 14-7.
San Diego Padres: Can They Win If Their New Bats Don't Finally Show Up?
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Short Answer: They'd better.
One of the San Diego Padres' big prizes from the trade deadline has been changing his narrative for the better in recent weeks.
After getting shelled to the tune of a 17.55 ERA through his first nine appearances as a Padre, Josh Hader hasn't allowed an earned run in any of his last 10 games. He's also struck out 13, walked one and allowed only four hits.
If only the Padres could get Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Brandon Drury to turn their act around:
- Before Joining SD: 143 wRC+, 55 HR
- Since Joining SD: 108 wRC+, 17 HR
Soto has been doing his part, as he's 17-for-52 with three homers in his last 14 games. The same can't be said for Bell, who last homered on Sep. 6, and Drury, who's homered only once since Sep. 17.
The Padres will have a shot at their first-ever World Series title if their new additions finally provide the support that Manny Machado has been lacking. If not, the mediocrity (i.e., 28-26) that has defined the Padres since the trade deadline will likely be their doom in October.
Philadelphia Phillies: Is Their Recent Funk a Sign of Things to Come?
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Short Answer: Don't be so sure of that.
The Philadelphia Phillies began this year in a slump under manager Joe Girardi, but then they canned him and won 58 of their next 91 games.
If that feels like a distant memory right now, well, a 7-11 run during crunch time will have that sort of effect. So will barely holding off a team as generally "meh" as the Milwaukee Brewers for the final spot in the NL playoff field.
And yet we propose: The Phillies aren't a team anyone should want to face in October.
Their offense is not to be trifled with, especially if Bryce Harper finds his two-time MVP-winning form to better support Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto and Rhys Hoskins. The Phillies' front three of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suárez, meanwhile, boasts a 2.83 ERA dating back to July 16.
If those parts prove to be as good on the field as they are on paper, the Phillies' recent play may be not so much their undoing as an ill-timed blip.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
