Italian F1 Grand Prix 2022: Odds, Preview and Top Storylines

Joe TanseySeptember 10, 2022

Italian F1 Grand Prix 2022: Odds, Preview and Top Storylines

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    Joe Portlock - Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images

    Ferrari finds itself in a terrific position to win on its home soil at the Italian Grand Prix on Sunday.

    Charles Leclerc earned the pole position during Saturday's qualifying session, and he will have six spots between himself and Max Verstappen on the starting grid.

    Leclerc has an advantage of Verstappen and a handful of other top drivers on the Formula One circuit because of grid penalties that were assessed for certain improvements to the cars.

    Verstappen had the second-fastest car in qualifying, but he was assessed a five-spot grid penalty, so he will begin the race in seventh place. As we witnessed earlier in the season, a grid penalty may not be enough to slow down the drivers' world championship leader.

    Verstappen won the Belgian Grand Prix after starting in 14th place. That accomplishment should have Ferrari and Mercedes worried that Verstappen can achieve the same thing with a smaller disadvantage.

    The Italian Grand Prix is one of the few races that Red Bull has not captured recently. Red Bull has not won at Monza since 2013.

    The last two events at Monza produced surprise winners in Pierre Gasly in 2020 and Daniel Ricciardo in 2021.

    Red Bull's pace and Ferrari's spot at the front of the grid may restore order to the podium places Sunday.

Italian Grand Prix Odds

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    Marco Canoniero/LightRocket via Getty Images

    Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.

    Max Verstappen (-120; bet $120 to win $100)

    Charles Leclerc (+125; bet $100 to win $125)

    George Russell (+900)

    Lewis Hamilton (+4500)

    Carlos Sainz (+4500)

    Sergio Perez (+5000)

    Lando Norris (+9000)

    Fernando Alonso (+15000)

    Daniel Ricciardo (+30000)

    Esteban Ocon (+60000)

    Pierre Gasly (+60000)

    All Other Drivers (+100000)

Can Ferrari Win on Home Soil?

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    Joe Portlock - Formula 1/Formula 1 via Getty Images

    Ferrari started the 2022 Formula One season hoping to challenge Red Bull for the drivers' and constructors' championships.

    A litany of mistakes has put Ferrari in second place in the constructors' championship and the Italian team is closer to Mercedes in third than Red Bull in first.

    Leclerc comes into Monza level on points with Sergio Perez for second place in the drivers' championship. He is 109 points back of Verstappen.

    A win at the Italian Grand Prix would provide a massive boost to Ferrari amid a disappointing season in which it is bound to come up well short of Red Bull.

    Leclerc starts on the pole for the eighth time this season, and he must get off to a strong start with Verstappen lurking back in seventh place.

    The pole-sitter will not have the help of his teammate, Carlos Sainz, to help hold off Verstappen's surge from seventh. Sainz will start in 18th place because of a grid penalty.

    Leclerc needs to hold off Mercedes' George Russell at the start, and if he does, he needs to open up an advantage in the lead so that it becomes tougher for Verstappen to catch him.

    It feels inevitable that Leclerc and Verstappen will do battle at some point. Leclerc can at least prolong that from happening if he starts strong and Ferrari avoids the strategy and pit mistakes that plagued them all season.

    A win at Monza would not put Leclerc back in the drivers' championship hunt, but it would at least go down as an important race win and only the second Ferrari triumph at Monza since 2011.

How Fast Will Max Verstappen Make Up Spots?

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    Clive Mason/Getty Images

    Max Verstappen's challenge for the lead is inevitable.

    Verstappen has had the fastest car on the grid throughout the season, and that has allowed him to open up a 109-point lead on Leclerc in the drivers' championship.

    Verstappen won the Belgian Grand Prix from much further back on the starting grid in 14th place, so it only seems like a matter of time before he makes up spots Sunday.

    Verstappen will be aided by the lack of cars from the top three teams between him and Leclerc. George Russell is the only driver from the top three teams starting between Leclerc and Verstappen.

    In Red Bull's ideal scenario, Verstappen will cruise past Lando Norris' McLaren and Russell in the first few laps and be within striking distance of Leclerc. That situation is of course Ferrari's worst nightmare.

    While a Red Bull win is expected, it would likely be celebrated more on Sunday because the team has not won at Monza since Sebastian Vettel picked up first place in 2013.

    That is one of the longest stretches Red Bull have gone without a win at a specific track in the last decade and it would yet another morale blow to Ferrari if the top team in Formula One conquers the race on the Italian team's home track.


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