Dolphins' Win-Loss Predictions for 2022 NFL Season

The Miami Dolphins begin their quest for three straight winning seasons against some of the perennial playoff contenders in the AFC.

The Mike McDaniel era gets off and running against the New England Patriots, which have been the gold standard in the AFC East for most of the last two decades.

Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Co. will get to prove their playoff potential against New England, Baltimore, Buffalo and Cincinnati in the first four weeks of the 2022 NFL season.

The opening stretch seems unfair to the Dolphins, but it is only the start of what could be one of the most challenging schedules in the NFL.

Miami plays consecutive road games on three occasions in 2022, with the final run being a three-game road trip to San Francisco, Los Angeles and Buffalo in December.

If there is any good news on the schedule, the team does have close to a full month at home in November and the middle of its slate is one of the lightest runs on paper in the NFL.

The Dolphins must take advantage of their easy stretches to remain over .500 for the third straight season. The schedule will challenge them to make the playoffs, but expectations are also changed for the franchise with the arrival of Hill.

Miami Dolphins' 2022 Schedule

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MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - AUGUST 20: Miami Dolphins Head Coach Mike McDaniel on the sidelines during the game against the Las Vegas Raiders at Hard Rock Stadium on August 20, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Eric Espada/Getty Images)

Week 1: Sunday, September 11 vs. New England (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Week 2: Sunday, September 18 at Baltimore (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Week 3: Sunday, September 25 vs. Buffalo (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Week 4: Thursday, September 29 at Cincinnati (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon)

Week 5: Sunday, October 9 at New York Jets (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Week 6: Sunday, October 16 vs. Minnesota (1 p.m. ET, Fox)

Week 7: Sunday, October 23 at Pittsburgh (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC)

Week 8 :Sunday, October 30 at Detroit (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Week 9: Sunday, November 6 at Chicago (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Week 10: Sunday, November 13 vs. Cleveland (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Week 11: Bye

Week 12: Sunday, November 27: vs. Houston (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Week 13: Sunday, December 4 at San Francisco (4:05 p.m. ET, Fox)

Week 14: Sunday, December 11 at Los Angeles Chargers (4:05 p.m. ET, CBS)

Week 15: Sunday, December 18 at Buffalo (TBD)

Week 16: Sunday, December 25 vs. Green Bay (1 p.m. ET, Fox)

Week 17: Sunday, January 1 at New England (1 p.m. ET, CBS)

Week 18: Sunday, January 8 vs. New York Jets (TBD)

Analysis and Expectations

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MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - AUGUST 20: Tua Tagovailoa #1 of the Miami Dolphins warms up prior to playing the Las Vegas Raiders at Hard Rock Stadium on August 20, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images)

Expectations are much higher for the Dolphins going into the 2022 season than they have been in previous seasons.

Tyreek Hill's arrival in a trade with the Kansas City Chiefs was a statement of intent for Miami to contend for postseason berths every season and to potentially be in the mix for the AFC East crown.

DraftKings Sportsbook lists its projected win total at nine wins, which is the second highest among AFC East teams behind division favorite, the Buffalo Bills.

Miami gets an early chance to see where it stacks up against the two powers of the AFC East, when it hosts New England in Week 1 and welcomes Buffalo to Hard Rock Stadium in Week 3.

Miami's finished product will not be on display in September, but those two clashes plus a Week 2 visit to Baltimore and a Week 4 trip to Cincinnati will give us an early look at what the team could bring to the field in 2022.

The Dolphins need to win at least two of those first four contests to have some stability going into the rest of the regular season. But an 0-4 start is possible for the new-look team.

Most of the results in 2022 will rely on Tua Tagovailoa taking a step up in his game and developing a strong connection with Hill, who was added to a wide receiver room that was led by Jaylen Waddle in 2021.

The Week 5 clash with the New York Jets should be a welcome sight for the Dolphins no matter how the first four weeks go. The schedule gets a bit easier from that point on until the Week 11 bye.

Minnesota and Pittsburgh have to come to south Florida, and then the Dolphins visit Detroit and Chicago. All four of those games are winnable and a four-game run of victories will be required desperately if a poor start occurs.

Wins over Cleveland and Houston at home on both sides of the bye are imperative so that the Dolphins can approach December and January with the playoffs in mind.

Getting to the postseason will not be easy with San Francisco, the Los Angeles Chargers, Buffalo, Green Bay and New England on the slate from Weeks 13-17.

The Jets will again serve as a welcome sight in Week 18, but the Dolphins need to win a few games during that stretch to make the season finale at home against New York meaningful.

Three multi-game road trips, including four contests in five games away from Hard Rock Stadium from Weeks 13-17, could hurt the Dolphins. But if they improve offensively, they will have a shot to contend in those matchups.

Prediction

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MIAMI GARDENS, FLORIDA - JULY 27: Tyreek Hill #10 of the Miami Dolphins catches a pass during training camp at Baptist Health Training Complex on July 27, 2022 in Miami Gardens, Florida. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Miami feels like a playoffs-or-bust team because of the Hill acquisition.

As we saw in the AFC last season, the fight for the wild-card positions is tough and could go down to the final game of the regular season.

Miami can't lock up a playoff berth before December, but it can fall too far behind to be counted out ahead of its four road games in December and January.

The team must pick up six or seven wins from the stretch that begins in Week 5 against the Jets. It's expected to be better than Detroit, Chicago, Cleveland and Houston and should be in better shape against Minnesota and Pittsburgh at home.

The Dolphins need to find wins in the first four weeks and in Weeks 13-17 to make the postseason.

They don't have to win all of those contests, but they should aim for a path to 10 or 11 victories to end a playoff drought that sits at five years going into the new season.

A lot is dependent on how Tagovailoa improves in the pocket and if he can stay healthy. If that happens, the quarterback would allow the Dolphins to take the step up from the fringe of the wild-card race to inside the postseason bracket.

There are a lot of what-ifs facing the Dolphins in 2022, but they can overcome some of those questions with a strong start.

The realistic expectation for Miami is to compete for a wild-card berth once again, but the fight to get to 10 wins may be tough.

Prediction: Dolphins finish 9-8.