Patriots' Win-Loss Predictions for 2022 NFL Season
The New England Patriots face one of the toughest starts to the 2022 NFL season.
Bill Belichick's squad plays three of its first four games on the road against potential playoff teams.
However, it's hard to feel too bad for the Patriots because of the opponents that come after their Week 4 trip to Green Bay and their Week 10 bye.
New England could recover from a potentially tricky start with a run of five or six wins to put itself in a nice position in the AFC East and the wild-card standings for the stretch run into the postseason.
The schedule-makers did not do the Patriots any favors at the back end of the regular season, either, as they face another span of three road trips in four games from Weeks 12-15. The saving grace from that run of games is they are more spread out as Thursday and Monday night contests.
Ideally, the Patriots want their Week 18 clash with the Buffalo Bills to mean something in the context of the AFC East divisional title race, but if that does not happen, they should at least be in the mix to land a wild-card berth for the second consecutive season.
New England Patriots' 2022 Schedule
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Week 1: Sunday, September 11 at Miami (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
Week 2: Sunday, September 18 at Pittsburgh (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
Week 3: Sunday, September 25 vs. Baltimore (1 p.m. ET, Fox)
Week 4: Sunday, October 2 at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS)
Week 5: Sunday, October 9 vs. Detroit (1 p.m. ET, Fox)
Week 6: Sunday, October 16 at Cleveland (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
Week 7: Monday, October 24 vs. Chicago (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Week 8: Sunday, October 30 at New York Jets (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
Week 9: Sunday, November 6 vs. Indianapolis (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
Week 10: Bye
Week 11: Sunday, November 20 vs. New York Jets (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
Week 12: Thursday, November 24 at Minnesota (8:20 p.m. ET, NBC)
Week 13: Thursday, December 1 vs. Buffalo (8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon)
Week 14: Monday, December 12 at Arizona (8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN)
Week 15: Sunday, December 18 at Las Vegas (8:15 p.m. ET, NBC)
Week 16: Saturday, December 24 vs. Cincinnati (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
Week 17: Sunday, January 1 vs. Miami (1 p.m. ET, CBS)
Week 18: Sunday, January 8 at Buffalo (TBD)
Analysis and Expectations
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New England comes into the 2022 NFL season with a projected win total of 8.5 wins at DraftKings Sportsbook.
That number seems low for a team coached by Bill Belichick, but it makes sense when you analyze the schedule as a whole.
The Patriots face two challenging stretches that feature three road trips in the span of four games.
The first one takes them to Miami, Pittsburgh and Green Bay in Weeks 1, 2 and 4 with the home opener against Baltimore squeezed into Week 3.
The clashes with four potential playoff teams to start the season look tough, but there is a bit of a silver lining with the first two games.
Miami has a handful of new pieces on offense and Week 1 will be the first time all of them play together in a regular-season game, and Pittsburgh is transitioning to Mitch Trubisky at quarterback and the Patriots defense could swallow him up in the backfield.
Mac Jones can outduel Tua Tagovailoa and Trubisky to allow New England to start with two victories. At least one win is expected from those contests given the growing pains the Dolphins and Steelers may face in September.
The Week 3 clash with Baltimore is a toss-up, while the trip to Green Bay will likely be a loss unless the defense gives Aaron Rodgers no time to throw.
The second daunting stretch begins on Thanksgiving night in Minnesota and ends on a Sunday night in Las Vegas. In between those matchups are a home Thursday game with Buffalo and a Monday trip to Arizona.
However, the Patriots do essentially get a second bye week after the Buffalo game and likely won't travel home following the Arizona game. The days between games and the easing of travel with Arizona and Las Vegas back-to-back on the schedule should help the team prepare more fully for those games.
The Pats should enter Thanksgiving with a winning record since they face Detroit, Cleveland, Chicago, the New York Jets twice and Indianapolis in Weeks 5-11.
If they win at least five of those games against weaker opposition, they should find a few more wins on the schedule to get to nine or 10 victories and compete for a playoff berth.
The final three games against Cincinnati, Miami and Buffalo should feel like playoff contests. New England probably needs to win two of them to be safe in the postseason picture.
A win at home over Miami is expected, so a playoff berth—or even a divisional title—could come down to beating the Bengals or the Bills.
Prediction
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New England's most predictable wins come from the middle of the schedule, where it should pick up at least five victories.
Wins against Miami and Pittsburgh to start the season would go a long way in determining New England's playoff fate, and it's possible those results occur as their opponents work out how they will look in 2022.
The Patriots have to hope for another late-season slide from the Arizona Cardinals. The Week 14 Monday night game could be key in the postseason race and having 11 days between that and the Week 13 home clash with Buffalo should help Belichick's team.
New England is expected to win at least four AFC East games, two against the Jets and the home clashes with Miami and Buffalo. It can also improve on that by beating Miami in Week 1.
The team's playoff fate and status toward its projected win total should come down to the final three games against Cincinnati, Miami and Buffalo.
The Patriots would love to have eight or nine wins by Week 16 to feel comfortable about the playoffs. If they can beat the reigning AFC champion at home in December, it may go down as a statement of intent for their postseason hopes.
A path to nine wins is very much there for New England, and a fast start in a less-than-ideal September could aid its playoff fight.
Prediction: Patriots finish 10-7
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