Big 12 Football: Preview and Predictions for 2022 Season
Change is hardly new for the Big 12, but 2022 marks the final season of the conference in its current form.
Next season, the quintet of BYU, Cincinnati, Houston and UCF will join the league. Soon after—if not concurrently, depending on any possible litigation—Oklahoma and Texas will depart for the SEC in 2025.
Given those impending changes, perhaps the 2022 season has extra meaning. This is the last iteration of the Big 12 as we know it—and the final guaranteed shot at OU and Texas for the conference's other teams.
And if preseason consensus is any indication, the race for the league crown should be thrilling.
B/R's preview features a look at the Big 12's biggest stars, top contenders and challengers, key games and a whole lot more.
Biggest Stars
1 of 9
Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas
After a solid freshman year in a rotational role, Bijan Robinson backed up the hype as the Longhorns' featured back in 2021. He ranked seventh nationally with 142.2 scrimmage yards per game. Robinson rushed for 1,127 yards and 11 touchdowns, also catching 26 passes for 295 yards and four scores.
Deuce Vaughn, RB, Kansas State
Two spots ahead of Robinson on the scrimmage yards list, Deuce Vaughn piled up 144.0 per game in 2021. The 5'6" back scampered for 1,404 yards and 18 scores, adding 49 receptions for 468 yards and four touchdowns. Vaughn received first-team AP All-America honors for his fantastic year.
Dillon Gabriel, QB, Oklahoma
While he's not necessarily the league's third-best player, Dillon Gabriel is one of its most familiar names. The former UCF quarterback threw for 8,037 yards and 70 touchdowns at his previous stop. Gabriel missed much of the 2021 season because of a broken collarbone, decided to transfer, initially picked UCLA and flipped to the Sooners. He played for new OU offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby at UCF in 2019.
More to Know: Quinn Ewers, QB, Texas; Will McDonald IV, Edge, Iowa State; Collin Oliver, DE, Oklahoma State; Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas
Top Storylines
2 of 9
Brent Venables' Return to Oklahoma
Before his decadelong stint as Clemson's defensive coordinator, Brent Venables served on the Oklahoma staff for 13 seasons. Now, he's back in Norman running the show following Lincoln Riley's departure for USC. Venables takes over a readymade contender and has a reasonably favorable slate, considering OU hosts Kansas State, Baylor and Oklahoma State. Will there be an opening-year championship for Venables?
As Usual: Is Texas Back?
The storyline has become a broken record, but it's nonetheless relevant. Texas boasts two of the nation's top playmakers in Robinson and wideout Xavier Worthy, and new quarterback Quinn Ewers was the No. 1 overall prospect in the 2021 recruiting class. We'll learn plenty about the Longhorns when national-title favorite Alabama heads to Austin in Week 2.
Baylor's Title Defense
Baylor has a veteran group on both the offensive and defensive lines. That foundation is appealing as Blake Shapen—who starred in the Big 12 Championship Game victory last season—becomes the full-time QB. The defining tests for the Bears in 2022 will be how effectively they retool at running back, receiver and in the secondary.
Top Challengers
3 of 9
The Favorites
Whether by preseason polls or betting odds, Oklahoma can be considered the slight favorite. The program is seeking its seventh Big 12 crown in the last eight seasons.
Baylor checked in 10th in the initial AP Top 25—one spot behind OU—with Oklahoma State at No. 12. On the other hand, Texas has the second-shortest odds to secure the conference title.
Regardless of your preference, it's clear the above quintet is on the highest tiers in the league.
Kansas State Wildcats
Subjectivity is in play here. Perhaps you could pick West Virginia because of transfer quarterback JT Daniels. Iowa State has become an annual seven-win team under Matt Campbell, while TCU is often a thorn and Texas Tech has a promising staff on offense.
However, our single Tier 3 team in 2022 is Kansas State.
Vaughn is among the nation's best players, let alone the conference. Adrian Martinez had an unspectacular end to his Nebraska tenure, but he's a dual-threat QB who should ideally fit this offense. Edge-rusher Felix Anudike-Uzomah and linebacker Daniel Green form a great foundation for a defense that brought in four-plus impact transfers.
Although the 'Cats probably won't win the Big 12, they'll very likely provide a twist or two along the way.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Coaches on the Hot Seat
4 of 9
Heading into the season, it seems likely all 10 coaches will remain at their current school in 2023. More than half of the conference has a first-, second- or third-year coach.
If any change happens, though, Texas and West Virginia are the most likely programs.
Texas has deep pockets that are destined to expand in the SEC. Steve Sarkisian had a dismal first season, and another bad year—especially if the Longhorns don't reach a bowl again—will undoubtedly result in a noisy environment. Maybe he doesn't get canned, but rumors would be swirling.
West Virginia, meanwhile, is 17-18 overall with an 11-15 mark in conference play during Neal Brown's tenure. That performance is low enough to place him on the hot-seat radar.
The challenge would be Brown is owed 100 percent of his remaining contract if fired before Dec. 31, 2024, per WVNews.com, so the buyout could be prohibitive. Besides, the Mountaineers could quickly cool Brown's lukewarm seat with transfer quarterback JT Daniels leading the way.
Best Games on Tap
5 of 9
Rivalries and Classic Matchups
Sept. 1: West Virginia at Pitt
Sept. 10: Missouri at Kansas State
Sept. 17: Oklahoma at Nebraska
Sept. 22: West Virginia at Virginia Tech
Sept. 24: TCU at SMU
West Virginia has a pair of clashes with old Big East rivals, including the first Backyard Brawl with Pitt in 11 seasons. Between those showdowns, Kansas State and OU both meet a former Big 12 adversary. Rounding out the group is new TCU coach Sonny Dykes taking on the SMU program he departed after the 2021 campaign.
Week 2 Nonconference Extravaganza
If you want to focus exclusively on the Big 12 for one weekend in 2022, block out the second Saturday of September.
Preseason national-title favorite Alabama heads to Texas for the first matchup since the 2009 season's BCS title game. It also marks the first regular-season clash between the programs in 100 years.
Oklahoma State welcomes Arizona State to town, while Baylor plays at and Texas Tech hosts, respectively, soon-to-be conference foes BYU and Houston.
Best of the Big 12
In such a tightly contested league (on paper), the matchups involving two of Baylor, OU, Oklahoma State and Texas figure to have a substantial impact on the Big 12 Championship Game.
Oct. 1: Oklahoma State at Baylor
Oct. 8: Oklahoma vs. Texas (in Dallas)
Oct. 22: Texas at Oklahoma State
Nov. 5: Baylor at Oklahoma
Nov. 19: Oklahoma State at Oklahoma
Nov. 25: Baylor at Texas
Best Offense: Oklahoma Sooners
6 of 9
If everything falls into place, Texas absolutely has an argument here. That is largely dependent on quarterback Quinn Ewers living up to his superstar billing.
Dillon Gabriel's perceived ceiling isn't as high, but Oklahoma's new starter is a well-established QB in a familiar offense with proven weapons. That's an awfully appealing combination entering the season.
Marvin Mims is among the nation's most explosive wideouts. Over the last two years, he's racked up 19.1 yards per reception and 14 touchdowns on 69 catches.
Oklahoma also returns Theo Wease, who basically missed all of 2021 with a foot injury. He grabbed 37 passes for 530 yards and four touchdowns in 2020. Arizona State transfer LV Bunkley-Shelton had 33 receptions for 418 yards and two scores last season too. Running back Eric Gray is a versatile player with 1,723 career rushing yards and 66 catches.
The offensive line has room to improve, but Lebby's quick-strike offense will atone for some of those struggles.
Best Defense: Baylor Bears
7 of 9
The short version: In Dave Aranda We Trust.
Heading into 2022, Baylor's primary appeal is a veteran front. Siaki Ika highlights the group, while Gabe Hall notched seven tackles for loss last season. Tulsa transfer Jaxon Player—who made 15 stops in the backfield (five sacks)—is a great addition too.
Baylor also returns key linebackers Dillon Doyle and Matt Jones. They combined for 142 tackles with 16.5 for loss in 2021.
One reasonable concern is the secondary, which needs to retool around Al Walcott and safety Christian Morgan. The hope is two of Mark Milton, Lorando Johnson and AJ McCarty can hold down the perimeter as Walcott shifts inside to the hybrid "Star" position. Devin Lemear is expected to start alongside Morgan at safety.
The transition will be challenging, but few coaches put their defense in a better spot than Aranda. He's proven that again and again throughout the last decade.
Projected Standings
8 of 9
Oklahoma: 10-2 (7-2 in Big 12)
Baylor: 9-3 (7-2)
Oklahoma State: 9-3 (6-3)
Texas: 8-4 (6-3)
Kansas State: 8-4 (5-4)
TCU: 6-6 (4-5)
Texas Tech: 5-7 (4-5)
West Virginia: 5-7 (3-6)
Iowa State: 5-7 (3-6)
Kansas: 2-10 (0-9)
Projected Big 12 Championship: Oklahoma vs. Baylor
9 of 9
In case it wasn't obvious, we're expecting a tight race to determine the league championship matchup.
Kansas State is intriguing, but the Wildcats need to prove they can navigate a full Big 12 slate. Same for Texas, even though their talent is undeniable. And, lastly, Oklahoma State's rebuild in the back seven defensively is concerning.
That leaves perennial power Oklahoma and reigning champ Baylor with the Big 12 title at stake.
Oklahoma is known for its offensive firepower, and that's fully expected to hold true thanks to Gabriel and Lebby. But the Sooners should also have a quality defense, especially with Venables overseeing the program.
The program's conference title streak ended at six last season, but a new one—however brief it may be, as the SEC looms—begins in 2022.
Projected Big 12 Champion: Oklahoma Sooners
Recruit rankings via 247Sports. Odds via DraftKings.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
