UFC on ABC 3: Ortega vs. Rodríguez Odds, Schedule, Predictions
Brian Ortega and Yair Rodriguez are in the unenviable position of coming off a big loss. At UFC on ABC 3, they will each attempt to get things back on track.
The battle of top-five featherweights headlines the card from the UBS Arena in Elmont, New York.
Ortega is making his first appearance in nearly a year. The last time we saw him he came up short against Alexander Volkanovski in his bid to win the featherweight title. He was dispatched by the champion by unanimous decision in a bout that earned Fight of the Night honors.
Rodriguez is still looking to earn his first crack at the title. El Pantera was close, but a loss to Max Holloway last time out set him back.
The winner will likely jump right back into the mix. The loser is going to have some work to do. The stakes are high in the main event. Here's a look at what else fans have to look forward to.
Fight Card, Schedule and Odds
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Main Card (ABC at 2 p.m. ET)
Brian Ortega (-165. bet $165 to win $100) vs. Yair Rodriguez (+140, bet $100 to win $140)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez (+245) vs. Amanda Lemos (-295)
Li Jingliang (+135) vs. Muslim Salikhov (-155)
Matt Schnell (+225) vs. Sumudaerji (-265)
Shane Burgos (-165) vs. Charles Jourdain (+140)
Lauren Murphy (+175) vs. Miesha Tate (-205)
Prelims (ESPN, ESPN+ at 11 a.m. ET)
Punahele Soriano (-215) vs. Dalcha Lungiambula (+185)
Ricky Simon (+130) vs. Jack Shore (-150)
Bill Algeo (-205) vs. Herbert Burns (+175)
Dustin Jacoby (-100) vs. Da-Un Jung (-120)
Dwight Grant (-105) vs. Dustin Stoltzfus (+115)
Jessica Penne (+135) vs. Emily Ducote (-155)
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Ortega vs. Rodriguez
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The tricky thing about breaking down the fight between Ortega and Rodriguez is that neither has been all that active.
Ortega's last win came against "The Korean Zombie" Chan Sung Jung on Fight Island in 2020. The last time we saw him, he got completely outclassed by Volkanovski. The fight may have earned Fight of the Night honors, but the best you can say for "T-City" is that he took down Volkanovski twice.
On the feet, it was mostly one-way traffic.
By the same token, Rodriguez has fought just once since a unanimous decision win over Jeremy Stephens in October 2019. The organization's attempt to put Rodriguez in the spotlight has been delayed because of injuries and a USADA suspension.
However, Ortega's striking defense could be the key here. The 31-year-old has proved to be hittable, and against a powerful, creative striker like Rodriguez, that could be an X-factor.
Prediction: Rodriguez via third-round TKO
Waterson-Gomez vs. Lemos
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Michelle Waterson-Gomez (36) and Amanda Lemos (35) are both likely headed into the back stretch of their MMA careers. However, both are ranked high enough they could put together one more run.
That has to start with a win on Saturday afternoon, though.
Waterson-Gomez has lost three of her last four. However, it's important to note that two of those losses came against Joanna Jedrzejczyk and Carla Esparza, two fighters with championships on their resume.
The Karate Hottie's striking is still effective. She is not a knockout artist but can control a round with her kickboxing if given the opportunity and proper distance.
That space will be hard to find against Lemos, though. Her willingness to push forward and fight aggressively makes her dangerous.
This one should play out a lot like her matchup against Angela Hill. Like Waterson, Hill is a better striker from distance, and the cat-and-mouse dynamic between the two saw Lemos get a split decision.
Prediction: Lemos via decision
Tate vs. Murphy
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Outside of the main and co-main events, Miesha Tate's flyweight debut is the most intriguing fight on the card.
After years of contending at bantamweight, this feels like the 35-year-old's final chance at a title run. Since coming out of retirement in 2021, she is 1-1 with a good performance against Marion Reneau but a lopsided loss to Ketlen Vieira.
A drop down to 125 pounds might be just what the doctor ordered to reinvigorate her career. But it doesn't necessarily give her an automatic path to a title. She'll see a scrappy opponent in Lauren Murphy.
She does, however, have the benefit of Valentina Shevchenko cleaning out most of the division.
This one should feature a fair amount of grappling. That's Tate's best argument to challenge Shevchenko, and she'll likely look to show off her skills there at the lower weight.
Murphy is tough and durable, so getting the finish will be tough. But Tate's wrestling should be enough to carry the day.
Prediction: Tate via decision
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