Fantasy Football 2022: Predicting This Year's Biggest Breakouts
Training camps are about to fire up across the league. It's just about time for teams to well and truly start preparing for the season to come. And that means fantasy managers have to start doing the same. Start making preparations. Getting their research on.
Because fantasy draft season is just around the corner as well.
There are plenty of things to research as you prepare for draft day. Managers need to know which early-round players will offer the best return on investment. Which potential busts are best avoided. And which late-round sleepers could go from dart throws to diamonds.
But there may not be a more important item than identifying this year's breakout players. To single out players who are going to do much more than live up to ADP. Or even exceed it.
No, these players are set to blow their respective asking prices on draft day out of the water altogether—and help win quite a few fantasy leagues while they're at it.
Trey Lance, QB, San Francisco 49ers
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There may not be a player in the entire NFL with more pressure on him to break out in 2022 than San Francisco 49ers quarterback Trey Lance.
Lance is the young signal-caller the 49ers mortgaged the future to obtain. The wildly athletic youngster with the cannon arm who is going to do for San Francisco what Jimmy Garoppolo could not—lead the team to victory in the Super Bowl.
No pressure, kid.
After playing in six games with two starts in 2021, all signs point to Lance being San Francisco's starting quarterback in 2022. And while speaking at the 49ers' annual State of the Franchise event, head coach Kyle Shanahan said that he believes Lance is more than capable of being a superstar in the pros.
"The biggest thing with Trey that people have to realize is he is younger," Shanahan said. "He has more horsepower inside of him than I think he even knows of. Just from the whole talent, but also what he's made of, how intelligent he is. I think he's going to be able to overcome adversity. I do believe he's going to handle this pressure. It's going to be hard—that's what the position is. And there are only so many people in this world who have the talent to be put in this spot."
Lance's arm talent is undeniable. So is his ability to gain yardage with his legs—ability that adds significantly to his fantasy value. In wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk and tight end George Kittle, Lance isn't hurting for passing-game weapons.
Back in 2018, Patrick Mahomes was a second-year quarterback with limited game experience who had an ADP of QB15 at Fantasy Football Calculator. This year Lance (in a similar situation) is also being drafted outside the top 12 at his position.
This isn't to say that Lance is going to throw for 5,000 yards and 50 scores in 2022. But there's real smash potential here.
And even a top-five fantasy finish would win a lot of fantasy leagues.
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Miami Dolphins
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Life comes at you fast in the NFL. No one knows that better than Miami Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. In the span of just two years, Tagovailoa has gone from highly touted top-five overall pick to a young signal-caller about whom people whisper the "B" word.
Bust.
Tagovailoa's 2021 season wasn't especially impressive from a statistical perspective—he was 27th in the league in passing yards, 26th in touchdown passes and 26th in fantasy points. But the Dolphins spent the offseason upgrading the team around Tagovailoa. The offensive line is improved. The backfield is overhauled. And in Tyreek Hill, Tagovailoa now has one of the NFL's most dangerous downfield threats at his disposal.
Per Bobby Kownack of NFL.com, Hill said on his It Needed to be Said podcast that all the naysayers expressing concerns about Tagovailoa will be eating crow for Christmas dinner this year.
"It's gonna be a lot of people taking their words back on what they said about [Tua]," Hill said. "I can't really name point, but I'm saying reporters, analysts, Twitter trolls. All those people are gonna take their words back on what they said about [Tua], and I'm just gonna be sitting there, eating my popcorn."
Now, no one is going to confuse Tagovailoa's arm strength with Patrick Mahomes'—Tagovailoa's 6.8 yards per attempt ranked 23rd in the league. But in fairness to Tagovailoa, it's not like the Dolphins have been an offense that pushed the ball down the field under Brian Flores—especially given the team's deficiencies up front.
But that line should be better in 2022. There's a new offensive-minded head coach in town in Mike McDaniel. And just because Tagovailoa didn't make throws down the field doesn't mean he can't.
In Hill, youngster Jaylen Waddle and tight end Mike Gesicki, Tagovailoa has passing-game weapons. He's an accurate thrower, completing almost 68 percent of his throws last year. And McDaniel should be able to bring out the best in the young passer.
Tagovailoa is a very interesting fantasy target for teams who wish to employ the "Late Round QB" draft strategy. His ADP at Fantasy Football Calculator is in Round 12, and the potential is there for him to wildly outperform that modest asking price.
J.K. Dobbins, RB, Baltimore Ravens
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It's understandable if fantasy managers are experiencing a bit of deja vu in seeing J.K. Dobbins included in this list of fantasy breakouts for 2022. After all, the third-year pro from Ohio State was a trendy pick in this same category a year ago.
Of course, that was before Dobbins suffered an ACL tear that ended his second pro season before it began. Dobbins' rehab from that injury could extend into camp, and it's admittedly unlikely that we'll see much (if any) of Dobbins in the preseason. But head coach John Harbaugh told reporters that he's optimistic both Dobbins and fellow running back Gus Edwards will be ready to go for the season opener.
"I’d say they’re all on schedule, but what is the schedule? The knee injuries are a little tougher to say what the schedule really is," coach John Harbaugh said. "So, [if] you talk to J.K, he’s the starting running back today, [and] he should have been practicing today, but he’s got work to do still, [and] so does Gus. But they’re both doing great. We’ll see how they look when they come back and all that."
Assuming Dobbins is ready to face the New York Jets in Week 1, it's not that hard to see why fantasy managers should be excited about him in 2022. As a rookie, Dobbins averaged six yards a carry and scored six touchdowns over the last five weeks of the season. Over that span, Dobbins was a top-10 PPR fantasy option—despite never logging 15 carries in a game during that stretch.
In trading away Marquise Brown, the Ravens appear to have indicated an intent to return to their run-heavy ways of 2019 and 2020. Dobbins will cede some passing-down work to Edwards and Lamar Jackson will get his on the ground, but we've already seen Mark Ingram turn 202 carries in this offense into an RB1 finish in 2019.
And Dobbins is a much more explosive talent than Ingram was at that point in his career.
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Travis Etienne, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars
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Travis Etienne's inaugural season with the Jacksonville Jaguars was (much like the team as a whole) a hot mess. The second of Jacksonville's two first-round picks in 2021, Etienne was supposed to pair with Clemson teammate Trevor Lawrence to provide a spark for the team's long-floundering offense. Instead, the 5'10", 215-pounder suffered a foot injury in the Jaguars' second preseason game and missed the entire season.
As Michael DiRocco reported for ESPN, Etienne's rehab from that injury has progressed well, and the young back is champing at the bit to help the Jags as both a runner and receiver.
“I’m sure they plan on getting the ball in my hands,” Etienne said. “I feel like I’m a special player with the ball in my hands. I feel like I definitely have the [physical skills] to do that. I feel like, for me, the biggest thing I want to do is get out there Week 1, tear it up and just be myself again, honestly. However coach wants to use me, I’m willing to do it. I just want to help the team win games.”
For his part, new Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson has been impressed by what he has seen so far from Etienne.
“Gosh, it’s just exciting to get him out here and get him on the grass this whole offseason and really work with him,” Pederson said. “He’s doing a great job handling a lot of information we’re throwing at the guys and putting him in different spots. [We’re] just seeing what he can do right now.”
After a busy offseason, the offense around Lawrence should be markedly better. In Pederson, the Jaguars have a competent head coach (unlike the Urban Meyer fiasco in 2021). And with James Robinson working his way back from a late-season Achilles tear, Etienne could be set for a featured workload early in the season.
It's not fair to Etienne to compare him to an established star and top-10 fantasy asset like Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints. But there are some similarities in skill set with the two backs.
And if the Jags use Etienne in a similar role, that could lead to quite a bit of PPR fantasy production.
Gabriel Davis, WR, Buffalo Bills
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Among fantasy breakout candidates in 2022, you'd be hard-pressed to find one receiving more hype in the fantasy community than Buffalo Bills wide receiver Gabriel Davis.
The reason for that hype isn't hard to pinpoint—in last year's playoff thriller against the Kansas City Chiefs, Davis went wild to the tune of eight receptions for 201 yards and four touchdowns. However, while Davis went absolutely bananas in that game, even he admitted that postseason explosion doesn't mean much now.
“I understand that, you know, it was a great game,” Davis said, via Jason Wolf of the Buffalo News. “I loved it. I appreciate everything. It was the biggest blessing in my life that ever happened to me. But the future’s now, and we got to move on. And now it’s time for year three.”
But as Doug Kyed wrote for Pro Football Focus, Davis' trainer, Bert Whigham, said that the big-bodied receiver hasn't been resting on his laurels, bulking up to 227 pounds in the offseason.
“He’s bigger, faster, stronger,” Whigham said. “He’s put on muscle. People say that’s too big, but he’s 23 years old. He’s just growing into his natural body. You’re going to see a big receiver.”
It's worth pointing out that Davis has never been targeted even 65 times in a season. But there were flashes last season—a 3/105/0 line against the New York Jets in Week 10 and a 5/85/2 game against the Carolina Panthers in Week 15.
With Cole Beasley and Emmanuel Sanders both gone in Buffalo, almost 30 percent of the total target share for the league's ninth-best passing game in 2021 has been vacated. Davis won't see all those targets--free-agent signee Jamison Crowder will nab some, and Stefon Diggs remains the unquestioned alpha-dog wideout in Buffalo.
But it's not that hard to imagine Davis' targets doubling in 2022. With the same efficiency as a year ago, that would mean 70 catches for almost 1,100 yards and a dozen scores.
That would put Davis on the fringes of fantasy WR1 territory in 12-team leagues.
Sometimes, hype is justified.
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Denver Broncos
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Like Tua Tagovailoa, Denver Broncos wide receiver Jerry Jeudy starred at Alabama. Like Tagovailoa, Jeudy entered the NFL on a wave of hype. And like Tagovailoa to date at least, Jeudy has yet to make good on that hype.
After catching 52 passes for 856 yards and three touchdowns as a rookie, Jeudy's numbers went off a cliff last year—just 38 catches and 467 yards and no scores in 10 games. Injuries played a part in that down season, but so did subpar play at quarterback. Now, Russell Wilson has replaced Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock as Denver's quarterback, and Jeudy said at his youth football camp that he expects that to make a world of difference in 2022.
"Every detail matters with [Wilson]," Jeudy said. "You learn a lot, just how hard he works and how focused he is when he's on the field and on the board. You realize how locked in he is. I've learned a lot. He's a great quarterback. I am excited to play with him. I mean it's going to be very exciting. I feel like we are going to be a very explosive team. I feel like we've got all the pieces we needed, so we've just gotta put it together. And I am excited that is going to happen."
Wilson struggled through an injury-marred season of his own last year in Seattle, but as recently as two years ago the nine-time Pro Bowler topped 4,200 passing yards with 40 passing scores on the way to producing a pair of top-10 PPR options at wide receiver in Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf.
It's not especially reasonable to foist that level of expectation onto Jeudy and Courtland Sutton in 2021. But it also can't be ruled out. And if Jeudy can work his way into the top 15 (or even the top 20), then he'll represent significant value given his ADP of WR30 at Fantasy Football Calculator.
Pat Freiermuth, TE, Pittsburgh Steelers
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Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Pat Freiermuth had a decent rookie season, catching 60 passes and finding the end zone seven times. But as Chris Adamski wrote for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, the 23-year-old isn't close to satisfied with what he accomplished as a rookie.
“I should be more in the range of 800, 900 [season] yards, so I think I definitely need to get [yards/reception] higher and want to push the ball down the field,” Freiermuth said. “Just being an all-around better tight end, I think. I showed some good things last year, but I just think taking my game to the next level."
Freiermuth may see plenty of aspects of his game that need work, but teammate Connor Heyward thinks that the former Penn State standout is already well on his way to being among the best in the league at what he does.
“He’s going to be one of the best tight ends in the league, if not the best, in time,” Heyward said. “I think he’s a top tight end right now. He’s a great tight end. He can catch, run, block. And he’s just so smooth; his catch radius is crazy. I think Pat is an elite tight end.”
"Elite" may be pushing it with Freirmuth—while he was 12th among tight ends in receptions last year, he managed just 8.3 yards per reception and the 19th-most receiving yards at the position. But odd as it may sound to say, Mitchell Trubisky and Kenny Pickett can both be viewed as passing-game upgrades over the 2021 version of Ben Roethlisberger.
With James Washington and JuJu Smith-Schuster no longer in the Steel City, 90-plus targets are well within reach in 2022, and 100 looks isn't out of the question.
If you bump Freiermuth to, say, 95 targets and add just one yard per catch to his average, you're looking at over 70 receptions and 670 receiving yards and change. Toss in the seven touchdowns Freiermuth scored as a rookie, and you're just a few PPR points shy of the top-five tight ends last season.
That sounds like a breakout to me.
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