The Best Opponents for Kamaru Usman at Light Heavyweight
If he has truly cleaned out the welterweight division, he could have tested himself one weight class above. Then again, Kamaru Usman isn’t known for doing things the easy way.
The UFC champion at 170 pounds voiced his intention earlier this week to move up not one but two weight classes after his UFC 278 title defense August 20 against Leon Edwards, which the early betting lines are predicting he’ll win.
Once the unquestioned glamor division of the UFC, there’s been a vacuum in recent years at 205 pounds, due in large part to its mercurial ruler, Jon Jones. Jones is now a heavyweight, while charismatic champion Jiri Prochazka and, before him, a feel-good story in Glover Teixeira have stepped in to refresh the landscape. Usman, perhaps not shockingly given his penchant for running toward a challenge, has said he’d like to face Prochazka in his light heavyweight debut.
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As great as Usman is, should he cut the line at 205 and get a title shot on his first try? Usman’s friend and fellow Nigerian Israel Adesanya got a shot like that when he went from middleweight to light heavyweight; it didn’t go well.
Is Usman different? If so, what other bouts make sense for him? Here are four possibilities, listed in no particular order.
Jan Blachowicz (29-9, 12-6 UFC)
There’s a nice bit of symmetry to this matchup. Back when he was still light heavyweight champ, Jan Blachowicz turned back Adesanya in the middleweight champ’s debut (and, to date, only) bout at 205.
He is also one of two fighters Usman mentioned by name when discussing his move.
“We’re gonna go in there and we’re completely focused on Leon Edwards,” Usman told TMZ Sports (h/t Harvey Leonard of MMA News). “But after Leon Edwards, we have our sights set on [light heavyweight], whether it’s Jan or whether it’s Jiri, whoever it is, that’s what we want.”
Still, Usman’s wrestling could be an equalizer. Usman is very proud—and rightfully so—of his 100 percent takedown defense rate, per UFC Stats. It will probably not be 100 percent anymore after Blachowicz is finished with him, but he likely wouldn’t find himself on the business end of three momentum-swinging takedowns or more than seven minutes of control time, as Adesanya was.
If nothing else, Blachowicz literally embodies Usman’s largest obstacle at light heavyweight: the size difference. It’s just math. According to ESPN's Marc Raimondi, Blachowicz weighed around 220 pounds when he stepped in against Adesanya, and it overmatched Adesanya completely.
Usman is a thicker, more physical fighter than Adesanya, but that size discrepancy will still be apparent, and presumably more so for Usman than for Adesanya given his career to this point as a welterweight.
Jamahal Hill (10-1 [1 NC], 5-1 [1 NC] UFC)
Jamahal Hill recovered and then some following that ghastly arm bar and subsequent knockout loss to Paul Craig a year ago. In his two ensuing bouts, he notched first-round, bonus-winning knockouts of Jimmy Crute and fallen star Johnny Walker to vault into the division’s top 10.
As Walker knows all too well, Sweet Dreams has true one-shot knockout power.
He may not have the biggest name recognition in the division, but if the UFC wanted Usman to test the waters at light heavyweight before setting a course for the biggest fish, Hill would be a worthy and crowd-pleasing foil.
Magomed Ankalaev (17-1, 8-1 UFC)
In his last bout against Thiago Santos, Magomed Ankalaev surprised many observers by choosing to stand with a dangerous striker. But after getting the better of numerous exchanges with counterstrikes and sharp angles, the Dagestani Russian took a decision win and ran his winning streak to eight.
The Russian also sits third in the division with an 85.7 percent takedown defense rate. Given that you can’t take him or Usman down easily (or at all), grappling could cancel out and leave us with a standup brawl. And that wouldn’t be so bad.
Ankalaev can operate in the deep waters that Usman calls home. On the eight occasions he’s gone the distance in his career, Ankalaev has been a winner each time. He’s a very deliberate fighter by default and, like Usman, would be able to conserve energy for the long haul. It could be boring, it could be a chess match, it could be a slugfest, or it could be some combination. Ankalaev is a tall order no matter how the fight unfolds.
As evidence of Ankalaev’s all-around dominance, he’s a -410 favorite, per DraftKings, to handle the well-regarded Anthony Smith when the two face off July 30 at UFC 277.
If Smith were able to pull off the upset, he too could be a suitable option for Usman. But as it stands, Ankalaev is a good bet to be ready and waiting for Usman should he follow through with his plan to move up after UFC 278.
Jiri Prochazka (29-3-1, 3-0 UFC)
He’s still new to the UFC, and the freshly minted gold is still shining brightly around his waist. But there’s no green in Jiri Prochazka, and there are certainly no flukes. He’s ready for big fights and big moments.
If you know anything about Prochazka, you know he knows how to put the show in show business. A mega-bout with Usman would present a big payday and a winnable fight on the sport’s highest stage.
It’s reductive to call Prochazka a berserker, as that implies mindless barbarianism. But Prochazka isn’t afraid to take risks, and he has the chin and raw power to get away with it. Of his 29 wins, one—one!—has gone the distance.
Prochazka showed tremendous heart in surviving and ultimately choking out Glover Teixeira to take the belt last month. Usman would need guts himself to overcome what would be another major size discrepancy against Prochazka, who would have significant advantages in both height and reach over the welterweight champ.
Usman’s learning-computer approach to the fight game won’t be able to wear Prochazka down, though it might make him bored. That’s when Usman can strike, perhaps literally. Prochazka lands on average one significant strike more per minute than Usman (5.77 to 4.66), so Usman will need to absorb or evade Prochazka’s shots while making sure the ones he does land find the mark.
But Usman's real weapon is his bread and butter. Teixeira took Prochazka down five times, and the champ's 68 percent takedown defense rate is good but not great, especially not when facing a wrestler of Usman's caliber. But again, it will all come down to size. Can Usman get inside Prochazka's reach, and does he have the raw power to hit a power double on the champ? That would create a ton of intrigue around this matchup.
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