8 Bold MLB Predictions For May on Carlos Mendoza, Phillies' Fate and More
The first month of the 2026 MLB season was basically one big experiment in defying expectations. So, maybe things will normalize in May.
Or, hear us out on this one: What if things get even wilder?
It is exactly this scenario that we aim to dance around with the following list of eight bold predictions for the month. Each is meant to be a hot take, but with just enough supporting evidence to suggest it could come true.
Let's start with four predictions having to do with individuals and then finish with four team-based predictions.
Somebody Is Going to Throw a No-Hitter
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Why It's a Hot Take
A no-hitter? Carried out by a single pitcher? In this economy?
From 2021 through 2024, MLB regularly saw multiple individual no-hitters each season, including Blake Snell's gem against the Reds on August 2, 2024. But entering May 2026, individual no-hitters have become far less frequent, turning what looked like a 2025 blip into more of a sustained downturn.
In case anyone was holding out hope that starting pitcher workloads would go back up, it's best to stop that now. The average start is lasting just 5.1 innings and about 84 pitches, down from roughly 5.2 innings and the midâ80s in pitch count in recent years.
Why It Could Happen
Then again, the law of averages is a thing. Eternity is not going to pass without another no-hitter, and the league is frankly overdue at this point.
Plus, the average start length isn't the only thing that's down in 2026. If you look past an elevated .323 on-base percentage and focus on the league's .243 batting average and .393 slugging percentage, offense is down, too.
It's a solid environment for a no-hitter, and the smart money is on Paul Skenes, Tyler Glasnow and Cam Schlittler. The first two are expected batting average standouts, while Schlittler is just plain nasty.
Fernando Tatis Jr. Will Lead MLB in Homers
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Why It's a Hot Take
In case anyone's wondering, here are the three hitters with the most plate appearances without a home run this year:
Simpson and Arraez are natural fits for a list like this. Tatis should be based on his track record as a slugger, but he's also been digging his own grave at the plate.
Since peaking at 13.8 degrees in his 42-homer season in 2021, Tatis' average launch angle has declined annually. It now sits at 3.2 degrees, and you just can't live there and hope to hit homers.
Why It Could Happen
A low launch angle and a steady rate of crushed baseballs are not mutually exclusive. And Tatis is proving as much so far this year.
At 93.2 mph, his average exit velocity is in the 93rd percentile. He's also cleared the hard-hit threshold of 95 mph with 61.5 percent of his batted balls, which is in the 99th percentile.
Getting more under the ball is thus the only thing standing between Tatis and a proper dinger deluge. Easier said than done, perhaps. But at a certain point, you have to trust that a guy with 152 homers in 703 career games will find his stroke.
Julio RodrĂguez Will Be the MVP of May
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Why It's a Hot Take
Ask any Seattle Mariners fan, and they'll tell you that May is just way too early to expect Julio RodrĂguez to go full Julio RodrĂguez.
The whole first half just isn't his jam, at least not when compared to the second half. For his career, he has a .738 OPS for the former and a .902 OPS for the latter. On a year-to-year basis, he's basically a late bloomer as an MVP candidate.
With a .741 OPS so far, RodrĂguez is more or less on his usual schedule. And unlike Fernando Tatis Jr., his Baseball Savant profile doesn't have any red bars that strongly hint at better things to come.
Why It Could Happen
Even if second-half Julio hasn't shown up yet in 2026, he at least looks more comfortable at the plate than he usually does this early in a season.
His .336 OBP is a new personal best through the first 35 games of a season, and that can mostly be traced back to more controlled at-bats. His overall swing rate is down nearly four percent from last year, and he's done a fine job of using the whole field.
All this has especially paid off in his last 21 games, for which he has a .967 OPS. And now the power is starting to come, with his last five games yielding four doubles and two home runs.
The New York Mets Will Fire Carlos Mendoza
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Why It's a Hot Take
OK, fine. It's only in the last few days that this take has gotten hot. For that, we can thank David Stearns for giving Carlos Mendoza a vote of confidence.
"We know our record is not what we want, and we know we are capable of more," the Mets' president of baseball operations told Anthony DiComo of MLB.com last Friday. "We don't view this as a manager problem, and we don't intend to make a change."
So, there's that. And despite the Mets' 12-22 record, the case for keeping Mendoza comes down to how this roster is simply too talented to be this bad for much longer.
Why It Could Happen
What if the question isn't how much Mendoza is to blame for the Mets' disastrous start, but whether the Mets have anything to lose by firing him?
It really is the latter question that matters right now. The club's odds of making the playoffs have already cratered, going from a high of 88.6 percent to just 27.7 percent at FanGraphs. A situation like that calls for a Hail Mary.
There's also the reality that it's past time for the Mets to have strong suspicions about Mendoza's leadership. Factoring in last year, the Mets have lost more games under him since July 28, 2025 than every team except the Colorado Rockies.
The Philadelphia Phillies Will End Up in 2nd Place
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Why It's a Hot Take
Here's some advice for Mets fans: Next time you feel bad, just remind yourselves that the Phillies have already fired their manager and might be an even worse team.
The Phillies (14-20) may have two more wins than the Mets, but their -43 run differential is the worst in MLB by a comfortable margin. Plus, more than half of their wins (seven, to be exact) have been by just one run.
Hence, the Phillies are arguably lucky to be in fourth place in the NL East. And with a 10.5-game lead on them, the Atlanta Braves are miles away in first place.
Why It Could Happen
Second place, on the other hand, is only 2.0 games away. And even setting aside how the Miami Marlins (16-18) fare in May, the Phillies should be able to make up that difference.
They're already coming around with six wins in their last eight games, a span in which their starting pitching is second in the league for fWAR. Jesús Luzardo looked especially good with seven scoreless innings his last time out, and that was just plain overdue.
On the offensive side, Trea Turner has been looking more and more like a proper table-setter for Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber. After posting a .591 OPS in his first 14 games, he has a .746 OPS in his last 19 games.
The Toronto Blue Jays Will Reclaim 1st Place
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Why It's a Hot Take
As to the goings-on in the other East division, the New York Yankees are sitting pretty in first in the AL East at 23-11. Only the Tampa Bay Rays (21-12) are close to them.
The Blue Jays may be the reigning champs of both the AL East and the American League, but the struggle has been real for them so far in 2026. They're just 16-18, with a -14 run differential to boot.
Their story is mostly one of an offensive letdown to the tune of a 93 OPS+. And with George Springer taking lumps both literally and figuratively, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. looks awfully lonely in the lineup.
Why It Could Happen
This is, however, an undeniably good time to buy stock in the Blue Jays.
They're 9-5 in their last 14 games, and that's with a solid average of 5.0 runs per game which has a lot to do with the rise of Kazuma Okamoto. The team has also been getting healthier, as Trey Yesavage is already back and Alejandro Kirk, Addison Barger and more should follow in May.
As for those Yankees, it's been excellent pitching that has sustained them in the face of hit-or-miss offensive performances. We're operating under the assumption that they've been a little too blessed in this regard, though the numbers actually suggest these could be famous last words.
The San Diego Padres Will End Up in 4th Place
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Why It's a Hot Take
Wait, wouldn't Fernando Tatis Jr. finding his power stroke make the Padres an even better team than they already are?
Yeah, that logic checks out. And in the meantime, there are good reasons the Padres are 20-13 and in second place in the NL West. Michael King and Randy VĂĄsquez have slump-proofed the rotation, while Mason Miller is the nastiest pitcher on two legs.
They also have more hitters who stand to heat up besides just Tatis. They still haven't had Manny Machado come online, and Jackson Merrill and Xander Bogaerts are better than they've shown.
Why It Could Happen
Ever seen a team with a good record that is nonetheless getting outscored? Of course you have, and the Padres are one. Their run differential is in the red.
With four losses in five games, bad luck is already starting to catch up with them. And it doesn't get easier any time soon. They have four series due up against winning clubs, plus two more against ostensible contenders in the Mariners and Phillies.
That bodes ill just on paper. And when you consider that San Diego is only 5-6 against clubs with .500 or better records, it looks worse.
The Cincinnati Reds Will Collapse Into Last Place
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Why It's a Hot Take
The Reds being this good feels like a surpriseâŚbut is it, really?
They were a playoff team last year, after all, and that was without anything like the star duo they now have in their lineup. Elly De La Cruz and Sal Stewart have combined for 19 home runs and a .872 OPS so far.
The Reds are also enjoying a breakout from Chase Burns on the other side of the ball, with Nick Lodolo set to rejoin him in the rotation sometime this month. And if anyone knows how to keep good times rolling, it's future Hall of Famer manager Terry Francona.
Why It Could Happen
Speaking of good teams with bad run differentials, it's hard to explain how the Reds are 20-14 despite having been outscored by 22 runs on the season.
They have thus far excelled at winning the close ones, going 12-1 in games decided by one or two runs. That is simply not sustainable, particularly for a team that is deficient both on offense (88 OPS+) and on the mound (99 ERA+).
Vibes can cover for dual deficiencies like that for only so long, and it's not as if the Reds have it easy in the NL Central. The last-place Pittsburgh Pirates are only 3.5 games out of first place, and that same team spent the weekend sweeping the Reds.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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