UFC 141 Results: What Needs to go Right for an Alistair Overeem Win

Tonight at UFC 141, former UFC heavyweight champion Brock Lesnar faces former Strikeforce heavyweight champion Alistair Overeem.

Maybe you've heard something about it. Both men are large. Some people even consider them a bit intimidating. Was that what Lesnar was going for when he tattooed a huge sword on his chest? We simply cannot know. Because that would require asking him. You can ask him. I don't want to ask him.

Overeem is no slouch in the menace department either. The Dutch kickboxer is half man, half minotaur and all muscle. As Bruce Buffer would say, this man is a striker.

In the other corner, Lesnar is a wrestler. It is my understanding he has a fairly rich history in wrestling. I'm no Dan Gable, but I believe Lesnar likely holds an advantage over Overeem in this area. Meanwhile, Overeem probably holds a striking advantage over the entire rest of the planet, give or take.

So what needs to go right for Overeem to win? In a nutshell: keep the fight vertical, and keep the fight short.

The longer this one goes, the deeper the water gets for Overeem. All those muscles are useful for hitting things and look awfully nice on the beach, but they don't help much when it comes to cardiovascular endurance. If he gets tired, he'll have extended periods of being laid on to look forward to. That's not how you win MMA fights.

Overeem has hopefully been working hard on his takedown defense for this one; it could be what wins (or loses) him the fight. But Lesnar is tenacious and, as mentioned, very, very good at wrestling. A successful takedown from Lesnar is probably not an if, but a when. The more time Overeem gives Lesnar, the more chances he'll have to do his work. And a longer fight will yield a more tired Overeem to boot.

Bottom line: Overeem should try his darndest to do what he does best. He needs to strike first and he needs to strike hard. Finish the fight, or risk being smothered. To be honest, I wouldn't trust Overeem's takedown defense as far as I could throw it against a monster like Lesnar. Why put all your chips on that one thin line? No, in Overeem's case, the best defense is a good offense.

Lesnar's chin has been tested before. Overeem will test it again. He just shouldn't beat around the bush about it.