How the Rangers Exposed a Possible Weakness in Andrei Vasilevskiy's Game

Have the New York Rangers found a way to beat Andrei Vasilevskiy?

Ask a room full of players, scouts, media and fans to name the best goaltender, and the majority may very well answer with Tampa Bay’s starting goaltender. The 27-year-old Russian is a four-time All-Star, the 2019 Vezina Trophy winner and the 2021 Conn Smythe winner.

He had just dominated in a sweep against the Florida Panthers, who led the league in goals. Then the Rangers picked him apart in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final with a commanding 6-2 win Wednesday.

New York's goaltender, Igor Shesterkin, certainly played a major role in the lopsided score, while the Lightning skaters made mistakes and looked overwhelmed for certain shifts.

But Vasilevskiy looked shockingly average, and that may even be generous. Clear Sight Analytics reported that the Rangers’ shots resulted in 2.97 expected goals, or three fewer than Vasilevskiy allowed.

Every player has bad nights. Henrik Lundqvist gave up six goals on five different occasions during his playoff career. It happens. Vasilevskiy is a top goaltender with playoff experience beyond his years. He won’t be rattled and will almost certainly perform better for the remainder of the series.

What stood out, though, was not merely that the Rangers beat him six times, but how they did it. Four of the six goals were elevated shots toward Vasilevskiy’s blocker side. A couple of them were the result of the natural game flow. Goals by Chris Kreider and Artemi Panarin came from the lateral right-to-left passes. That meant the blocker side of the net was gaping as Vasilevskiy needed to move across the crease. Filip Chytil scored twice while shooting toward Vasilevskiy’s glove side on similar plays.

Goals by Mika Zibanejad and Frank Vatrano told different stories.

Shooting blocker side on both of these occasions was an active choice. Zibanejad’s goal was hardly a blunder on Vasilevskiy’s part, but it’s one he probably thinks he could save. Though it’s an admirable rip by Vatrano, his goal is the one Vasilevskiy almost certainly wants back.

Wrist shots from distance with a partial screen at best are ones good goaltenders are expected to stop.

This is not an outlier in Vasilevskiy’s game. As goaltending analyst Mike McKenna pointed out, the Tampa Bay netminder has struggled to make saves on his blocker side during his career. Via InStat, here are Vasilevskiy’s save percentages by shot location during the 2021-22 season.

Chart Provided by InStat

It did not seem incidental that the Rangers beat him so often to his blocker side. Over the entire 60 minutes of Game 1, it appeared the Rangers were actively targeting Vasilevskiy’s blocker side.

InStat’s data backs this up. Of the Rangers’ 26 tracked shots on goal, nine were shot either mid- or high blocker, and there were seven toward the blocker-side leg pad. That’s a stark contrast with just three elevated shots on the glove side. What’s more, all six of their shots from defensemen were sent blocker side, with only one shot by Adam Fox from anywhere closer than the point.

Chart provided by InStat

This is not in line with the Rangers’ typical tendencies. Over the 82-game season plus two playoff rounds, the team’s shooting preferences were fairly even, with a slight majority toward the glove side.

It could be a coincidence, but it sure doesn’t look like one. That the Lightning completed the sweep of the Panthers on May 23 meant the Rangers knew well in advance who their conference final opponent would be should they move on.

That is a lot of time for the video and analytics teams to prescout the Lightning, Vasilevskiy included. If the players were indeed instructed to shoot blocker side in Game 1, then it worked.

What can the Lightning do about it?

On the penalty kill, probably not much. As Game 1 showed, Zibanejad can absolutely rip it from above the left faceoff circle. Fox and Panarin are wizards with the puck who put it right in his wheelhouse even when it seems impossible. The Rangers' power play is elite, and the Lightning may have to try to limit their penalties and otherwise take their lumps.

At even strength, Lightning head coach Jon Cooper will need to make adjustments. The Rangers shot frequently from the left side of the offensive zone, which naturally means more shots toward Vasilevskiy’s blocker side.

The Lightning will want to force the puck to the Rangers' right side of the ice. They may also be forced to concede the points more and get sticks in the middle of the ice to prevent the cross-slot seam passes that the Rangers executed with impunity in Game 1.

Ultimately, the Lightning will bank on better performances from their franchise goaltender. It’s unlikely New York will continue to score three more goals than expected against him. But Igor Shesterkin is in peak form for the Rangers.

The games will probably be much closer the rest of the way, but unless Shesterkin starts to slip, the Rangers’ relentless targeting of Vasilevskiy's blocker side could result in the two or three goals that decide the series.