Is What's Best for LeBron James Also What's Best for LA Lakers?

The marriage between LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers (33-49) is at a tenuous point. James has only one season left on his contract, and while he can sign a two-year extension in August, it's unclear whether he will.

"Based on my conversations with people who have a strong sense of such things, it's clear James is considering playing out this contract rather than signing a two-year extension this summer," Sam Amick of The Athletic recently wrote. "... [James] could go back to the year-by-year approach he perfected in his second Cleveland stop."

Sources at Klutch Sports insist those internal discussions on James' future haven't taken place yet. However, James was non-committal after his exit meeting with the team last week.

"Myself and [agent] Rich [Paul] can't even begin to talk with [vice president of basketball operations] Rob [Pelinka] or the front office at all because of the collective bargaining agreement," he said. "When we get to that point, we'll see."

James' decision may determine the direction of the Lakers' offseason. If he refuses to commit to them beyond next season, that could impact how they rectify the Russell Westbrook situation.

The Lakers will likely have to ship out their 2027 and/or 2029 first-round picks to offload Westbrook's $47.1 million expiring contract this summer. If they also have to take back unwieldy contracts, they might balk at oft-injured players on long-term deals like Gordon Hayward or Malcolm Brogdon if James isn't committed beyond next season.

Knowing James will be around for three more seasons would help the Lakers commit to a plan. Without that knowledge, they'll have to take a leap of faith this offseason.

The Year-to-Year Approach

AP Photo/Ashley Landis

If James refuses to sign an extension this summer, the Lakers will need to either move on or capitulate. While James doesn't have a no-trade clause, superstars have a certain modicum of control over where they go, especially near the end of their contracts.

Westbrook is one of many dominoes who could be impacted by James' decision either way.

With his family well situated in Los Angeles, James has given no indication that he wants to leave the Lakers. However, the threat of his potential departure next offseason may help him gain more influence over the rest of the roster and the coaching hire.

Before hiring Frank Vogel in 2019, the Lakers negotiated with Monty Williams and Tyronn Lue. Per sources familiar with the discussions, the franchise offered three-year deals with less money than each demanded. They ended up offering the same deal to Vogel.

Williams moved on quickly to great success in Phoenix with the Suns. Lue initially tried to make it work, but couldn't get past the Lakers' requirements. Vogel has since been hired and fired, with the 2019-20 title on his resume.

Now Vogel is gone, and James seems to be pondering what could have been.

He’s also recently praised the work of other front offices like the Oklahoma City Thunder and the Miami Heat:

The Lakers have a long list of quality finds over the past decade, including Brandon Ingram, D'Angelo Russell, Julius Randle, Kyle Kuzma, Alex Caruso, Jordan Clarkson, Josh Hart, Ivica Zubac, and most recently, undrafted guard Austin Reaves. However, they forfeited most of them one way or another to get James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook (or in the case of Caruso, poor decision-making).

Regardless of whatever role he played in those decisions, James doesn't seem thrilled by the Lakers' iffy set of moves in recent years. He could use his contractual situation as a way to exert more control over their future signings, trades and draft picks.

The Books Without LeBron

AP Photo/Ringo H.W. Chiu

If James doesn't extend his contract and leaves next summer, the Lakers would gain significant financial flexibility. However, they would lack a headliner.

Based on current commitments, the Lakers could have $57-75 million in spending power next offseason (using a cap projection of $128.1 million for 2023-24) if James leaves and they renounce the rights to the rest of their roster. They would still have Davis on the books for at least one more year, and they could look to land another star or two in free agency.

But cap room only goes so far. The Lakers aren't guaranteed to lure another set of marquee players. Instead, they might look to get out of Davis' contract and start over entirely if James leaves.

That wouldn't necessarily be a terrible plan. The Lakers don't have any ugly, long-term contractual commitments. They might be able to rebuild quickly with a mountain of cap space and whatever they got in return for Davis.

Then again, the organization may not want to experience a gap similar to the years between Kobe Bryant's 2013 Achilles injury and James' arrival in 2018.

James and Davis Through 2023-24 or 2024-25?

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Even if James agrees to extend his contract this summer, he may want a player option on the final season, which would match Davis' early termination option before 2024-25. That would give the Lakers two full years before potentially losing both of their stars.

In the best-case scenario, both of them will stay healthy, contend for titles and have no desire to eventually depart. This past year may just go down as a momentary rough patch.

Then again, how long can James play at an elite level given that he'll turn 38 in December? That may not matter to the Lakers, who reinvested in Bryant in his mid-30s after a devastating Achilles injury.

Bryant was never the same player after that injury, but the Lakers re-signed him to a two-year, $48.5 million deal, which speaks to how they value and take care of star power. James remains one of the league's biggest names and is coming off a tremendous year despite the team's poor record.

This past season was a challenging, ugly experience for the Lakers. It may signal the end of their marriage with James, but a recommitment could still work.

Going halfway in and halfway out may not be productive for either side, but the team may not have a choice if James isn't willing to extend his contract this summer.

Email Eric Pincus at [e-mail] and follow him on Twitter, @EricPincus.