Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions: Any Rest for the Weary?

The big question during the last several weeks coming into a Green Bay Packers game was, "Should they rest starters or go for the 19-0 season?"

Talk about putting the cart before the horse. With regular season goals still before the team, the Kansas City Chiefs put an end to those questions two weeks ago.

Now that the Packers have secured homefield advantage right through to the Super Bowl, they have resurfaced in a new context: Should the Packers play the season finale as if it means something or rest their starters; if so, how many?

I have two words for you: Indianapolis Colts.

The only year the Colts won the Super Bowl, they could not rest their starters. Every year they did they looked stronger at the end of the regular season, yet got only one conference title and no Super Bowl victories.

Green Bay must play to win. You cannot play scared and you cannot lose that competitive edge.

This does not mean the Packers should ignore the risks. The Detroit Lions would revel at being known as the team that ended the Packers run more than they would about winning a single playoff game.

They will be gunning for Aaron Rodgers, and the Packers must counter with a smart gameplan: Rodgers plays only through the first series of the second half and benefits from max protection schemes or short passes throughout his time on the field.

But you do not want your rivals to think they can beat you because they have taken two of the last three games against you. You also do not want your best weapon to go three weeks between games. Same goes for B.J. Raji, Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson, who play positions less vulnerable to injury.

Those who are battling more than soreness, bumps and bruises are another matter. Chad Clifton should play even if at less than 100 percent because he needs the playing time to get back into the swing of the highest level of football. But Bryan Bulaga should not play unless he is 100 percent healed.

James Starks sits and so does Ryan Pickett—the run defense has shown how much they need him and cannot risk him being out in the playoffs because his concussion symptoms resurface. Desmond Bishop can sit so those behind him get more playing time and because the drop-off to them is manageable.

That is not the case with Rodgers. For those Packers fans thinking the Lions may not play to win. Wake up! Detroit will come into the game with hopes of being a fifth seed—the difference between having to play the elite New Orleans Saints or the "maybe-we-show-up-maybe-we-don't" New York Giants or Dallas Cowboys.

In fact, having something to play for gives the Lions more of an intangible advantage than homefield does for the Packers, especially if some players sit for part or all of the game. But the Packers are plus-one per game better in turnovers and on the other end of the penalty spectrum (second least to fourth-most yards per game).

So how do the Lions match-up elsewhere on the field?

Packers Have Advantage When Passing

As mentioned in the preview of the Thanksgiving Day matchup, Detroit has the front line to disrupt the Packers passing game. Their defense also forces turnovers and only six teams have a lower opponent passer rating.

Green Bay is without Greg Jennings and probably will have either a tackle playing who is a backup, hobbled or both. This is enough to give the Packers trouble against lesser defenses.

But this is still the Packers and as long as Aaron Rodgers is under center, he has enough targets to give more trouble than he gets. Also, the line play was very good in the second half against a good Bears front-four last Sunday.

Expect to see the top-rated passer of all-time fall short of 5,000 yards and 48 touchdowns because he will be pulled before the final gun. Matt Flynn will throw only one pick while adding a touchdown and over 50 yards to Rodgers' two and 200-plus. The two will also get sacked at least three times between them.

Packers Have Slight Advantage When Running

The Green Bay Packers are not a good rushing team. Only five teams in the league have fewer than 100 yards per game and fewer than four per carry—at 98.5 and 3.98, Green Bay is one of them.

This is even though the Packers have played some weak run defenses, with a whopping 10 games against teams in the bottom 13 in total rushing yards allowed, including the bottom two and five of the bottom eight. The five worst teams in yards per carry have all faced Green Bay, too.

It is just that Detroit is in both the above categories—dead last in yards per carry. With the return of a healthy Ryan Grant, the Packers have shown the ability to run in the last three weeks. Considering the extra emphasis on the run likely coming, Grant should get 100 yards and the Packers finish over 120.

Detroit Has Slight Advantage When Passing

The Detroit Lions have an elite passing game. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has 4,518 yards, a 96.6 passer rating, and 36 touchdowns to 14 picks.

Calvin Johnson is the best receiver not named Larry Fitzgerald in the world. He gets a touchdown per game and should finish with 90 catches and 1,500 yards.

Both will give the Packers trouble, but no other wide receiver or tight end would get on the field with the Packers for more than a dozen or so snaps a game. Expect Green Bay to roll coverage toward Johnson to contain the damage he does and keep other receivers pretty well in check.

Green Bay's defense is in the top quarter of the league in opponent passer rating because it has 29 interceptions, eight ahead of the next best team in the NFL. Only five other teams pick off more passes than they allow touchdowns. (The Lions are even at 20 each.)

Detroit has problems on the offensive line, giving up 34 sacks this season. But only one team has a lower sack percentage than Green Bay.

Given their weapons and the time Stafford will enjoy, they will get yards between the Packers two picks. Johnson will get at least one score, as will another receiver.

Detroit Has Slight Advantage When Running

This is almost a mirror image of the slide describing the Packers running the ball.

With electric starter Jahvid Best out for the season, the Lions had to bring back Kevin Smith. He is finally healthy and has given one of the worst rushing offenses in the league new life.

Detroit is one of the teams to rank behind Green Bay in yards per game, though they average about a foot more per carry than the Packers do. And the Packers are almost as bad stopping the run as the Lions: 16 teams give up more yards, but only six give up more per carry.

With Ryan Pickett out, the Packers were exploited by the struggling Kansas City Chiefs running backs and the third and fourth backs on the Chicago Bears depth chart. The Lions will be able to run the ball successfully while the Packers defense works to contain their dangerous passing game.

Packers Have Advantage on Special Teams

Green Bay has the advantage in all phases of special teams, but not a stark one anywhere.

Jason Hanson has attempted one more field goal and missed one more. While he is better inside 40 yards (16 of 16 vs. 18 of 19 for Mason Crosby), he is not as good beyond it (7 of 11 vs. 5 of 7).

Tim Masthay averages almost two more yards per punt than Ben Graham. He has only one more touchback while pinning his opponent inside the 20-yard line 14 more times.

Randall Cobb averages more than a yard better on kickoff returns and more than five yards better on punt returns, with one touchdown in each to none for either from any Lions. Green Bay's coverage gives up about a foot less than Detroit's on punts (both have yielded a score) and better than three fewer yards on kicks without having given up that score the Lions did.

Prediction: Packers 27, Lions 23

Green Bay will approach the game to win it, even if they will sit a couple players for part or all of the game.

The Packers will be up 17-7 when Aaron Rodgers takes his leave of the game. Matt Flynn will be able to barely hold onto that lead, thanks to the defense holding off a last-minute attempt at a go-ahead touchdown.