Kansas State vs. Arkansas: Last-Minute Spread Info and More for Cotton Bowl

The best non-BCS bowl of the year features two teams who have legit gripes to be in a better bowl.

No. 6 Arkansas was the highest BCS-ranked team not to get an invite and was bounced from the festivities while less deserving teams like Michigan and West Virginia snuck in.

At No. 8, K-State isn’t very far behind.

This game will help settle the debate of just how far of a gap there is between the SEC and Big-12, the undisputed two best conferences of 2011.

Here is everything you need to know about what looks to be one of the best bowl games of the season:

When: 8:00 PM EST, Friday, January 6^th

Where: Cowboys Stadium, Arlington Texas

Watch: FOX

Spread: Kansas State vs. Arkansas -7.5

The Razorbacks were victims of a ridiculously tough SEC West that just so happens to feature the two teams playing for a national championship game.  Those were the only two losses during their season and it just so happen to be the only games where Arkansas failed to score at least 29 points.

QB Tyler Wilson (3,422 yards, 22 TDs, six INTs) is going to be a bear for the Wildcats to contain. With his ability to spread the ball to a bevy of talented Razorback receivers, it’s hard to imagine Kansas St. keeping up offensively.

The Collin Klein-led offense ranks 109^th in passing yards. His modest 1,745 yards, 12 TDs and five INTs won’t be scaring the Razorbacks defense. What will scare them is his ability to tuck and run the football. He ran for 1099 yards and scored 26 TDs on the ground.

As long as Arkansas builds a comfortable lead in the second half, they will force Klein into obvious pass situations that will end up dooming the Wildcats.

Key Trends:

Razorbacks are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite.

Razorbacks are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. Big 12.

Wildcats are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 Bowl games.

Wildcats are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 non-conference games.

Over/Under: 62.5

The math here is pretty simple: Arkansas scores 37 points per game, and Kansas St. averages 33. That equals 70 total points, enough of a cushion to take the over.

With such a long layoff, it’s typically the defense that loses focus and in a matchup of two of the top 30 offenses in the league, I like our chances with the over.

The Razorbacks ability to score in a hurry is going to be a huge help when covering such a large over/under total, and expect Jarius Wright, the SEC-leader in TDs with 11, to play a huge role in accomplishing that. Considering the Wildcats allow 27.8 points per game, I’d imagine at least 35 from Arkansas.

Yet the Wildcats offense is no slouch either. Their ability to pass and run out of every formation they run has kept defenses off balance all season long. No reason to think that changes now.

Key Trends:

Over is 5-0 in Razorbacks last 5 games overall.

Over is 16-5 in Wildcats last 21 games overall.

Over is 6-0 in Razorbacks last 6 games following a ATS loss.

Prediction: Arkansas 41 Kansas State 28

Expect Klein to rack up the rushing yards while desperately trying to play catch-up to the big arm of Wilson. Arkansas is poised to have a bevy of plays that are 30 or more yards, and that will lead to easy scores for what is ultimately one of the five best teams in college football.

It was a banner year for KSU, but unfortunately they are going to be humbled in a big way on the big stage. Arkansas has been here before, Kansas St. hasn’t.

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)