Panthers vs. Saints: 5 Ways New Orleans Can Guarantee a Win Sunday

The Carolina Panthers are finishing a season once again in New Orleans. The two seem to play the final game against each other just about every season. 

And as has been the case in most of those matchups, the New Orleans Saints have already clinched the NFC South. But they need to win, and have the San Francisco 49ers lose, in order to guarantee a first round bye in the NFC Playoffs. 

Carolina comes in 6-9, having won two straight games against Houston and Tampa Bay. They are looking for a 7-9 finish—which would be pretty darn good considering the way the season started. And it would be great with the number of injuries and young players Carolina has had. 

They're a very talented football team, who is still learning how to win. But much like Tampa Bay the past two seasons, nothing would make their season like going into New Orleans in the Saints' final home game and coming out victorious. 

All that being said, the Saints have won all seven of their home games this season, and only one of those games has even been close. The Saints have been as dominant at home as any team in football. 

Something's got to give. There are a number of ways the Saints can ensure that home record finishes perfect and the overall win streak goes to eight games. 

1. Identify Matchups

Few defenses in the league make it so obvious as to what matchups an offense is going to get in certain looks. 

As you watch the video here, we see the Falcons' Jacquizz Rodgers lined up in the backfield. Matt Ryan gives a pedestrian playfake, rolls away, allowing Rodgers to wheel around linebacker James Anderson for a relatively easy 31-yard touchdown. 

If you watch more film than just this play, you see the Panthers don't really change their matchups. 

Several things stand out: 1. Jimmy Graham is going to get covered by a corner or safety any time the Panthers are playing man-to-man coverage. That's great for the Saints, as they'll just throw jump balls to him all day long. 

2. Running back are always going to get linebackers covering them, no matter the situation. In third down situations, a linebacker—almost always Anderson—is going to Green Dog, which means he's coming if the RB stays in to block or he'll play man-to-man if the running back goes out into a route. 

The easy solution is to put Pierre Thomas or Darren Sproles back there, have them chip, then run a circle route or flat-to-wheel route. It will be an easy completion and a possible big play. 

Sometimes the Panthers will play cover two and the linebackers do a really good job of staying flat, making it tough to get behind them, but also tough to complete the short pass. More often that not, this will set up deep route over the middle to Marques Colston or Robert Meachem (assuming Lance Moore doesn't play in this one). 

2. Be Prepared for a Really Good Pass Rush

The Panthers get as much pressure on third down as any team in the league. And they do it generally with no more than a five man pressure package. 

In the Week 5 matchup between these two teams, Drew Brees had pressure in his face on just about every nickel situation. Since then, the offensive line has improved greatly. And it's going to need to excel in this game to keep Brees healthy for another Super Bowl run. 

Charles Johnson leads a talented bunch of pass rushers who are excellent at getting pressure on the QB. 

The way to beat this, as mentioned earlier, is to throw checkdowns to the running backs. Of course, it also wouldn't hurt to simply stay out of third down plays altogether.

Draws and middle screens are also good options against this fast defense.  

3. Start Fast, Finish Faster

This season at home the Saints have started relatively quickly in just about every game. In the one they didn't—against the Houston Texans—the game was a real battle all the way 'til the end. 

Every other game, the Saints were pretty well in control by halftime. Against a young team, this is key. They think they can buck the trend and come in and win in the Superdome. But if you take their life away early, their level of belief will shrink ever so quickly. 

The Panthers went on the road against two playoff teams in their last two road games—against Houston and Detroit. In each game, they started quickly. They eventually lost to Detroit, but against Houston they never looked back. 

Everyone knows it, the Saints are the better football team in this game. But emotions and momentum are large in football. They can be the very factors to overcome a talent or experience deficiency. 

The Saints cannot allow those to factor into this football game. 

4. Be Prepared for the Off Tackle Run

The Saints have often been taken advantage of by the off tackle run of the Carolina Panthers. I can remember at least three long runs the Panthers—more specifically DeAngelo Williams—have hit against the Saints over the last couple seasons. 

It has generally been due to a slight cutback like this one when Will Smith hit the edge too hard. A seal by the right guard cut off the rest of the defense and Williams went house. 

Now Cam Newton is a legitimate run threat, meaning the Saints have to stop the off tackle run from Williams, Jonathan Stewart AND Cam Newton! 

The best way to do that is to play an even defense straight across, with only seven men in the box. In fact, the very nature of Carolina's offense requires this. And you have to be careful due to Newton's proficiency as a play-action passer. 

This requires a quick fill from the linebackers, but slow fill from the safeties. They may hit a few eight or nine yard runs this way, but probably won't give up explosive runs this way. 

5. Capitalize on Cam Newton's Mistakes

On the play in the video, the Saints had about every opportunity conceivable to stop the Panthers from picking up the first down. First they had the opportunity to sack Cam Newton, but couldn't. 

Then Jabari Greer had the chance to either intercept the pass, as he had great coverage, or at the least knock the pass away. Instead, Steve Smith somehow caught the ball. Then Greer could have at least tackled Smith and prevented the long touchdown. 

This play was a microcosm on plays the Saints gave up or gave away against Carolina in the previous matchup. It was a game the Saints should have won easily and the Panthers gave them every opportunity to do so. 

This week the Saints must tackle runners and receivers in the open field, as well as Cam Newton. They must slow down the emerging young receiver Brandon LaFell. They must figure out a way to stop the Panthers from completing the deep in route they've had so much success with this season. 

And they must figure out a way to take Greg Olsen and Jeremy Shockey out of the game. It's a large task, and will be even more difficult with one less day to prepare than normal. 

But the Saints are aided by having already played the Panthers and their dynamic offense. Expect Gregg Williams to play his most blah defense of the season in part because of the lack of preparation time, also in part due to his belief that this matchup requires it, and finally because the playoffs are right around the corner. 

Finally, that is the goal of this game—to win while keeping everyone healthy and without too much extra effort. 

If the Saints can do all those things, it will be a happy New Year in New Orleans.