NFL Playoff Picture: Ranking the Top Dark Horse Teams of AFC, NFC Conferences
Every year, there are favorites and then there are underdogs in the playoffs, and oftentimes, the heavy favorites fall to teams predicted to be one-and-done.
There are two such teams in both the NFC and AFC playoff picture this year who are just that—dark-horse candidates who could rise to the occasion this postseason and make quite convincing runs toward their ultimate Super Bowl goal.
In the following slides, I discuss these four teams and just why it is they could win out this year.
NFC: Detroit Lions
1 of 4With two offensive powerhouses dominating the NFC playoff discussion, the Detroit Lions have fallen by the wayside. However, in terms of dark-horse playoff contenders, there's none more strong than the Lions, who have turned around years of losing seasons to make the playoffs for the first time since 1999.
Thanks to a full season with quarterback Matthew Stafford both healthy and active, the Lions have notched 10 wins to five losses and have more than a good chance to defeat a Green Bay Packers squad in Week 17 that is likely to rest its starters for most of the game.
The Lions have found success thanks to Stafford's accuracy and big arm in concert with his cadre of talented receivers, led by Calvin Johnson, who has the second-most yards of any receiver in the league.
They have a top-10 defense that ranks third in defending the pass, which should prove invaluable to them with the New Orleans Saints and Packers likely in their playoff future.
The Lions benefited from coming into the season with a great deal of buzz, but buzz alone won't produce wins. Detroit has exceeded the expectations placed upon them at the start of the season and have a great shot to make it all the way to the Super Bowl this year.
NFC: San Francisco 49ers
2 of 4The San Francisco 49ers are the most unlikely team to reach the playoffs in the NFC this year, and the fact that they could end the year with the conference's No. 2 seed is an additional surprise on what has been quite the impressive year.
Thanks to their NFC-leading defense and a solid, virtually mistake-free season from quarterback Alex Smith, the team has 12 wins to just three losses and are in quite the advantageous position in the offense-focused NFC.
Every other NFC playoff team relies more heavily on its high-production passing offense to nab them wins rather than their defense. In contrast, the Niners have earned the majority of their wins thanks to their bruising defense, which leads the league in overall turnovers this year.
With their ability to bring pressure and force turnovers, San Francisco, and most specifically their defense, has a chance to turn the Green Bay Packers' and New Orleans Saints' dream seasons into nightmares.
If the old adage that "defense wins championships" has any truth, then the Niners might just find themselves as the NFC's representative in this year's Super Bowl.
AFC: Cincinnati Bengals
3 of 4While the Cincinnati Bengals haven't yet technically clinched an AFC playoff berth, the odds are steeply in their favor. If they make it to the postseason, they're clearly the top dark horse squad to make the playoffs in the conference this year.
The Bengals weren't pegged to achieve much this season, considering they divested themselves of veteran wide receivers Chad Ochocino and Terrell Owens, replacing them with rookie A.J. Green and second-stringer Jerome Simpson and chose to start rookie quarterback Andy Dalton rather than trying to negotiate with Carson Palmer. To boot, they also lost star cornerback Johnathan Joseph to free agency.
Despite all of these seeming strikes against them, they've managed to win nine games this year and have elevated the AFC North to the top division in the conference.
Whether Dalton is freakishly accurate for a rookie passer or Green is just that good, the Bengals have been held to fewer than 20 points just three times this year. Their defense has been solid as well, giving up more than 30 points just twice.
For the Bengals to get to the Super Bowl this season, they'll have to face teams they've lost to this year, namely the Pittsburgh Steelers, Baltimore Ravens and Houston Texans. But, with more at stake and a bit of luck on their side, they just could spoil the party for one of the more heavily-favored AFC contenders.
AFC: Houston Texans
4 of 4By just making the playoffs this year, the Houston Texans have beaten the odds. They're AFC South champions for the first time in franchise history, and with it, they've gotten their very first postseason nod.
But they way they did it makes them a major underdog threat in the AFC playoffs this year. They started the season without star wide receiver Andre Johnson, and he's not been in full health since. The Texans also lost outside linebacker Mario Williams for the season with a torn pectoral muscle.
Then, in back-to-back weeks (separated by the bye), both starting quarterback Matt Schaub and backup Matt Leinart went down with season-ending injuries of their own, vaulting 2011 fifth-round draft pick T.J. Yates into the starting role prior to the team's playoff run.
Generally, a team faced with this much adversity would fold. If any other team lost their star wideout, star linebacker and starting quarterback (as well as their backup), there's little chance they'd win very many games, let alone clinch a playoff berth.
Though Yates' inexperience is a strike against them, the fact that the Texans have managed to continue winning—losing just two games with Yates under center—proves that their running game and defense are truly two of the best in the league.
With no true favorite to win the AFC championship—the New England Patriots are on fire offensively, but have a terrible secondary, the Pittsburgh Steelers are just a few key injuries away from being in serious trouble, and the Baltimore Ravens are beholden to the performance of inconsistent quarterback Joe Flacco—it's anybody's game.
Despite Yates' youth and his shortcomings, the Texans are an extremely well-balanced team and could be a surprisingly strong contender in the conference this postseason.


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