NFL Week 17 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game (Plus Playoff Scenarios)

With every team facing an opponent within its division this week, we'll be watching a lot of games with postseason implications for one or both teams. It'll be fun.

I'll also outline some of the playoff scenarios that teams on the bubble need to reach "the tournament," as Bill Parcells always called it. You'll be seeing a lot of "Denver or Oakland" this week, as the winner or the AFC West might be knocking one other wild-card candidate into an early offseason. For the sake of brevity, I'm not including scenarios that feature ties, because that probably won't happen now that Donovan McNabb is out of the league.

My picks saw a return to mediocrity last week, as I went 8-8 in picking Week 16 against the spread. That leaves me with a record of 111-118-11 on the season. I can still finish above .500 on the season if I go 13-3 with this week's picks. I'm not holding my breath on that, but it's a goal.

Let's get to it. 

PHILADELPHIA -8 over Washington

The Eagles will miss the playoffs for only the third time since 2000, which happened to be Andy Reid's second year in Philadelphia. It's clear how much the team missed Michael Vick; they're 3-0 since his return, with an average margin of victory of 18 points in those games.

The Redskins will close out their season on the road after getting skunked in their home finale against Minnesota. At 5-10, they have neither playoff positioning nor draft pick positioning for which to play. And don't forget Vick's six-TD game against Washington last November. We could see more of that this weekend. 

ATLANTA -11.5 over Tampa Bay

The Falcons have clinched a wild-card berth in the NFC playoffs, and the Buccaneers have lost their last nine games and 10 of their last 11. That said, 11 points is still a lot to cover here. Do you take the team with nothing to play for over the team that hasn't shown signs of life since October?

Atlanta plays well at home; they're 5-2 in the Georgia Dome this season, but only 3-2-2 in those games against the spread. They pushed against Minnesota (laying 10) last month, but covered handily against Jacksonville (laying 13) two weeks ago. The concern is whether or not Matt Ryan will stay in the game long enough to make this a blowout. I'm saying he will.

San Francisco -10.5 over ST. LOUIS

I thought about the possibility of the Niners resting their starters for the playoffs, and the idea of resting Alex Smith made me laugh out loud. In truth, Smith and company will get that week off with a win or a Saints loss this weekend, giving San Fran a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs.

Rams quarterback Kellen Clemens is finally answering the question of whether he can play in the NFL (the answer is no), having thrown for a Tebow-esque 9-for-24 against the Steelers last week. San Fran blew St. Louis out four weeks ago when they were starting A.J. Feeley, and like most sequels, this will be strikingly similar to the original.

One caveat: Alex Smith is awful in the red zone. Just awful. Stats site TeamRankings has the Niners 30th in red-zone touchdown scoring, which is the biggest reason why David Akers became such a big offseason pickup for them. This will almost certainly bite them in the playoffs, but they should be fine this weekend. 

MINNESOTA -1 over Chicago

Remember last season when the Bears were in the NFC Championship game and Jay Cutler was called out for not being tough enough to finish the game? Kind of ironic that he missed the last month of this season, no?

What about the season before that, when the Vikings and Brett Favre lost to the Saints, thanks in part to an illegal substitution penalty? Man, that seems like forever ago. 

GREEN BAY +3.5 over Detroit

You read that right...the Packers are getting points at home. The Pack have clinched the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs and really have nothing to play for other than to protect their fans from getting stomped on by Ndamukong Suh. The Lions could take the No. 5 seed with a win this weekend, meaning that they would face the Cowboys or Giants instead of the Saints or 49ers.

How much will Aaron Rodgers play this weekend, if at all? Green Bay has a guaranteed week off with that first-round bye, but they're also working with a patchwork offensive line that was exposed in the team's loss to Kansas City two weeks ago. I'm expecting (or guessing, really) that Rodgers will at least play the first half.

Expect a similar strategy from the Lions and Matthew Stafford. "Fat Stafford" amazingly has started all 15 games this season after missing sizable chunks of games in his previous two. The Lions face as great a risk at losing their quarterback as the Packers do, so while Vegas is saying no to the Packers, I'm saying yes. 

Carolina +8 over NEW ORLEANS

Drew Brees presents another quarterback conundrum: He broke Dan Marino's single-season passing record on Monday night, but the Saints still need a win (or a Niners loss) to lock up a first-round bye. If the Saints lose, they'd welcome Atlanta back to the Superdome for Wild Card weekend instead of getting that week off. Is that win worth Drew Brees playing the entire game?

It seems stupid to pick against Drew Brees at home, but the Panthers are 9-6 against the spread and have no reason whatsoever to pull Cam Newton early. This game also has the highest total of the day at 54.5, so I'm more inclined to take the eight points. 

HOUSTON +3 over Tennessee

The Texans appear locked in as a No. 3 seed in the AFC despite having lost their last two games. Meanwhile, the Titans need one of two scenarios to play out.

They need to win, and (a) need Cincinnati to lose, the Jets to win and either Oakland or Denver to lose. Or they need to win, and (b) need Cincy to lose, the Jets to lose and either Oakland or Denver to win.

The fun part of all of this is that if Tennessee wins here and Scenario A plays out, these two teams will face each other again in Houston next week. 

Baltimore -2 over CINCINNATI

The Bengals managed to avoid a blackout for this game, only the second time they've done so this season. If Cincy wins, they're in. If Baltimore wins (or Pittsburgh loses), the Ravens will clinch a first-round bye.

The Bengals will finish just their third winning season in over 20 years, which explains why there's so little fanfare from the city, whose generous lease of Paul Brown Stadium had yet to produce a proven winner in Cincinnati. Having grown up in "The 'Nati," I'm totally biased here. I don't want to see the Bengals rewarded for the organization's cheapskate ways. 

Pittsburgh over CLEVELAND (no Line)

I couldn't find a line on this game, but you could give me Cleveland-plus-the-Cuyohoga-River and I'm still taking the Steelers. Ben Roethlisberger's foot is probably being held to his leg with nothing but trainer spit and duct tape, but hey, whatever works.

If the Steelers win here and the Ravens lose, they'll clinch a first-round bye. And if the Patriots lose on top of that, Pittsburgh locks up the No. 1 seed in the AFC. 

Indianapolis +3.5 over JACKSONVILLE

When will Vegas learn to embrace the power of OFFICIAL COVERING MACHINE (tm) Dan Orlovsky? The Colts are 4-0 against the spread with Orlovsky starting under center, including outright wins against Tennessee and Houston. YOU CANNOT GIVE THIS MAN POINTS, LAS VEGAS. HE WILL ONLY CHEW THEM UP AND SPIT THEM OUT AS ANGRY BLUE FIRE! 

New York Jets +2.5 over MIAMI

Todd Bowles probably won't get a good look to stay in Miami for 2012, and that's fine. That organization is so busy trying to be the L.A. Lakers of the NFL that they don't deserve a quality candidate like that. Let them have Jon Gruden and watch them go 8-8 every year.

The Jets need to find a way to beat a Dolphins team under Bowles that trounced Buffalo at home and took New England to the wire in Foxborough. Oh, and they also need losses from Cincinnati, Tennessee and either Denver or Oakland to get into the playoffs. After losing to the crosstown Giants last week, another letdown here could leave Rex Ryan on the proverbial hot seat in 2012. 

Buffalo +11 over NEW ENGLAND

I'm buying big on the Tom Brady non-throwing shoulder injury rumors that came out earlier this week. He missed practice on Wednesday, even though the team reported the absence as "Not Injury Related." Compound that with the Patroits 1-2-1 record against the spread in their last four games, and even Chan Gailey looks sexy enough to give a look on New Year's Day.

Wait, that came out wrong.

San Diego +3 over OAKLAND

Philip Rivers went four games without throwing an interception before last week's loss to the Lions, where he was picked off twice. His Chargers are 3-1 in their last four games; they picked an awful time to start playing well as far as Oakland is concerned.

The Raiders do not control their own playoff destiny. Not only do they need to win, but they also need either a Denver loss or a Cincinnati loss plus either a Tennessee loss or a Jets win. And while Carson Palmer seems to have finally found his stride in California, it might be too little too late. 

KANSAS CITY +3 over Denver

Tebow Time might be over for the 2011 season after this game, unless the Broncos win or if Oakland loses.

Chiefs interim coach Romeo Crennel has brought life back into this much-maligned Kansas City team. Despite losing to Tebow seven weeks ago, the Chiefs are not only to playing to save their jobs, but also to keep Crennel on the headset for next season. With the novelty of Tebow's unorthodox style wearing off, it's difficult to not take the home 'dog here. 

Seattle +3 over ARIZONA

Neither team here can make the playoffs, which seems right considering the woes that both clubs had at the quarterback position this season. Seattle was rolling of late with Tarvaris Jackson; the Seahawks had won six of their last eight before falling to the Niners at the wire last week. Arizona has been starting some guy named John Skelton, who has thrown at least one pick in every game he has played this year, save one.

Even though Arizona is tough to play at home (5-2 on the season), I expect Seattle and their underrated defense to come away with a close 19-17 type of win here. 

Dallas +3 over NEW YORK GIANTS

This Sunday night game is a great way to end the regular season. The winner of this game takes the NFC East and gets into the playoffs. The loser goes home. Unless the loser is the Giants, because technically, they're already home. Guys, that was a joke. Don't email me. 

I like Dallas here because they have better tools on offense and the team doesn't hate their coach's guts. Tom Coughlin might get fired if his team can't beat the Cowboys for the second time in four weeks. But we said the same thing four years ago, and he wound up winning the Super Bowl that season. As long as Jason Garrett doesn't ice his own kicker this weekend, we should be good.