NFL MVP 2022 Odds: Aaron Rodgers Favored over Tom Brady; Joe Burrow Enters RaceJanuary 3, 2022
Aaron Rodgers locked up the No. 1 seed in the NFC on Sunday and perhaps the NFL MVP with it.
Rodgers is now the overwhelming MVP favorite at DraftKings Sportsbook, coming in at -400 ($400 bet wins $100) after a Week 17 home win over the Minnesota Vikings. Tom Brady, the favorite for most of the regular season, dropped to +500 after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers needed a last-second touchdown to beat the lowly New York Jets.
Rodgers has come on strong over the final stretch of the season, throwing for 14 touchdowns without an interception to lead the Packers to five straight victories. It's unlikely Rodgers will play in a meaningless Week 18 game, meaning he'd conclude the season with 3,977 yards and 35 touchdowns against four interceptions. He has not thrown a pick since a Nov. 14 win over the Seattle Seahawks.
Brady's numbers, by contrast, dwarf Rodgers in nearly every category. Brady has thrown for 4,990 yards and 40 touchdowns against 12 interceptions while leading the Bucs to a 12-4 record, just one fewer win than Rodgers' Packers. The Packers only would win a tiebreak over the Bucs due to in-conference record if both finished at 13-4.
It's hard to find a tangible reason why the narrative has shifted against Brady. Aside from an ugly shutout loss to the New Orleans Saints in Week 15, Brady has led the Bucs to six wins in their last seven games to clinch the NFC South while consistently putting up stellar numbers.
Rodgers has been more efficient on a per-pass basis and turned the ball over less, but Rodgers also has a far superior running game with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon.
Joe Burrow, meanwhile, has entered the outskirts of the conversation after a pair of monster games to help the Bengals clinch the AFC North. Burrow has thrown for 971 yards and eight touchdowns without a pick in wins over the Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs, deciding several fantasy championships in the process.