Alabama Football: Who's Missing from the Tide's 2012 SEC Schedule?

As an avid 'Bama (and therefore SEC) fan, today is a banner day.

The SEC schedule has been released, and I've already got my eyes on a few games as "season-makers."

The biggest question I had coming into today was, who will the new kids have to play?

Alabama is entering next year with an experienced quarterback, but a less-experienced defense.

In 2010, that was the equation for a three-loss season. Let's take a look at the schedule and see if that's the case in 2012.

Sept. 15: @ Arkansas

The conference-opener will again be played against Arkansas.

And just like 2011, the season can be made or broken with this game.

A commanding win in 2011 certainly got my hopes up, and a win here would do the same thing.

Arkansas will be a test for this defense. Passing that test will prove that they have learned to play together in just the first two games of the season.

If they do that, the Tide have a great chance of learning fast enough to make it to Atlanta.

Sept. 29: Vs. Ole Miss

After only winning two games in the 2011 season, I don't see Ole Miss breaking off a win over Alabama in 2012.

Do they have the tools to make it happen? Possibly—we know they've got the quarterback skill to do it.

Hugh Freeze seems to be committed to this team for the long haul, so this will be a glimpse into his way of thinking. If he can get the Rebels to buy into his philosophy early on, this could be a trap game for Alabama.

Oct. 13: @ Missouri

After a 7-5 regular season, Missouri capped off their last year in the Big 12 with a bowl win over UNC.

Missouri can thank the SEC for one thing: at least 'Bama has to come to their house in Year 1.

The Tigers will take a couple of years for their SEC status to reap the recruiting benefits necessary to contend in their new conference. They have a rushing attack that places them in the middle of the SEC pack already, but 'Bama should be able to slow down their productivity enough to come away with the win.

In any case, if 'Bama doesn't go undefeated in 2012, I don't think Missouri will be the Tide's undoing.

Oct. 20: @ Tennessee

This will most likely be Dooley's make-or-break year at UT.

I don't want to see him fail; he's a great person and a good coach with the potential to be great.

However, I don't want to see him succeed at Alabama's expense.

This will most likely be a closer game than 2011 was, but that's not really saying much. The Crimson Tide should force the Volunteers into another loss on this particular day.

Oct. 27: Vs. Mississippi State

Mississippi State always seems to come up with a way to scare the top-tier programs in the SEC with its defense.

I don't see a seasoned A.J. McCarron being stopped by this defense in 2012, especially two solid months into his second season. He will have a couple of teams to solidly get his feet under him early in the year, and he should be shining brightly by the Tennessee game.

Another "W" for 'Bama.

Nov. 3: @ LSU

LSU doesn't have a conference game Oct. 27, 2012, which is consistent with a bye week. (It's not definite, but I doubt that's a non-conference game.)

That means LSU has two weeks to prepare for Alabama, and Alabama has only one week to prepare for LSU.

This should have almost every pundit in the nation calling for the head of Big Al.

I'm not going to say it's a definite win. To me, LSU was the most losable game in 2011. I also think that's the case in 2012.

I think that the media should play a huge part in this being another "Game of the Century."

And I don't think Saban will lose three regular-season games in a row to anyone.

Ultimately, LSU loses their two quarterbacks, but keeps their defense largely intact. Alabama brings back a starting quarterback, but loses quite a few on defense.

It will be a 'Bama advantage to have this game late in the season. Plus, if you believe in statistics, LSU is playing with home-field disadvantage this year:

LSU vs. 'Bama in Louisiana: 10-24-3      

'Bama vs. LSU in Alabama: 21-16-1

Seven of Alabama's home losses to LSU have come since 1991; the disadvantage has recently become more meaningful.

Nov. 10: Vs. Texas A&M Aggies

Welcome to the SEC West, Aggies!

This means games against Arkansas, LSU and Alabama every year.

The biggest threat A&M poses to the Tide this year is in recruiting. With some of the best high school football in the nation, Texas is a huge crop to harvest every year.

I don't see Saban being outdone in recruiting, but the SEC leverage is now in the state of Texas. Nick Saban still has all the leverage he needs, but I will definitely be watching the recruiting boards carefully.

Saban has Alabama, NFL draftees, National Championships—everything he needs to recruit.

But the Aggies now have just enough to be a perennial annoyance to the Tide's recruiting efforts.

'Bama wins this one in 2012.

Nov. 24: Vs. Auburn Tigers

Rivalry weekend, the Iron Bowl and the third tiger mascot of the season for the Tide.

I'd like to see all three Tigers sitting above the mantle as the boys in crimson head off to Atlanta.

Time will tell if I get my wish.

Regardless of the other outcomes, the 'Bama D will have all the experience they need to win the 2012 Iron Bowl.

Who IS Missing?

Short answer: the SEC East.

Having to play everyone in your division to qualify for a conference championship game means that 'Bama has to play all six of their division-mates.

The conference schedule consists of eight games, so this leaves two games against SEC East teams.

Tennessee was part of the Missouri deal. (That's actually the main reason Missouri went to the East.)

That leaves one game to schedule an SEC East team that's not Tennessee—and the powers chose Missouri this year.

That means that Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, Vanderbilt and Kentucky get away from the Tide in 2012.

In fact, Georgia doesn't have to play Arkansas, Alabama or LSU in 2012, either—except in the SEC Championship in Atlanta.

Go ahead and place your bets on Georgia for the SEC East again since everyone else has to play one or more of the West's top three.