NHL Free Agents 2011: Why Brad Richards to the Rangers Could Be a Disaster

The New York Rangers lured the cream of the crop to the Big Apple, signing the number-one free agent, Brad Richards, on July 2.

Richards has played in 772 games, scored 220 goals (0.29 goals per game), registered 496 assists (0.64 assists per game), and tallied 716 points (0.93 points per game) to go along with a Stanley Cup and Conn Smythe in 2003-04 with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

After hearing each team's offer on July 1, Richards and his agent settled on New York and a nine-year, $60-million, front-end-loaded contract with a no-movement clause re-uniting him with his former head coach in Tampa Bay, John Tortorella.

That $60 million is just his NHL salary as Richards will be making an additional $28 million in signing bonuses, making his nine-year deal now worth $88 million, or $9.8 million per year. (Richards will make $42 million of his $88 million during his first two seasons.)

When comparing Richards’s production and salary to those of other top-end players in the NHL, one begins to scratch his head.

Alexander Ovechkin makes on average $9.5 million a season over his 13-year contract ($300,000 less than Richards) but has already scored more goals than Richards (301) and is only around 100 points behind (614) in 297 fewer games played (1.3 points per game).

Ovechkin has not won a Stanley Cup, but he has won the Calder Trophy, Hart Memorial Trophy, Art Ross Trophy, Richard Trophy, and Lester B. Pearson Trophy.

Pittsburgh stars Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin on average have $8.7 million salaries ($1.1 million less) and have won a Stanley Cup to go along with a Calder Trophy, Art Ross Trophy, Hart Memorial Trophy, and Lester B. Pearson Trophy.

Crosby almost has scored as many goals as Richards (215) and has recorded 572 points (only 144 behind) in 360 fewer games (1.4 points per game).

Newly signed Steven Stamkos ($7.5 million average) in three seasons has only 101 fewer goals and 484 points while playing 529 fewer games.

Is Richards, based yearly on total salary worth more than those four players?

Even at his $6.67 million cap hit, is he worth more than the Sedin twins ($6.1 million; two Art Ross trophies, Hart Memorial Trophy, and Lindsay Trophy), Jonathan Toews ($6.3 million; Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup), Mike Richards ($5.75 million; Selke Nominee, Captain, and 30 goal-scorer) or Jeff Carter ($5.27 million; 40-goal scorer)?

Last year Ilya Kovalchuck was the top free agent and eventually signed a 15-year, $100 million deal ($6.67 million average) with the New Jersey Devils.

The first attempt was deemed to have circumnavigated the salary cap and cost the Devils a first-round draft pick. It also pushed the Devils over the cap, so they had to dress fewer than 18 skaters for some games.

The pressure of the big contract got to Kovalchuck as he started off very slow. Even though he eventually caught on by the end of the season, he still finished 12 goals and 20 points below his average while he was in Atlanta.

The Rangers went down this road before in 2007 when they first started the front-end loading of contracts in the post-lockout era.

Chris Drury was coming off a 37-goal, 69-point campaign with the Buffalo Sabres and had a Stanley Cup on his resume, making him one of the top free agents in the summer of 2007.

Scott Gomez had a down year, scoring 13 goals and 60 points, but the season before he had scored 33 goals and 84 points. Plus, he has two Stanley Cups to his name.

On July 1^, New York signed both players, with Drury signing a 5-year, $35.25 million deal ($7.05 million cap hit) and Gomez a 7-year, $51.5 million deal ($7.36 million cap hit).

Gomez’s deal was the first front-end loaded contract, starting at $10 million in the first year and ending at $4.5 million in the final year.

In Drury’s first season on Broadway, he scored 25 goals and 58 points. The following season he scored 22 goals and 56 points. In 2009-10 Drury dropped to a career low of 14 goals and 32 points.

Last season in only 24 games due to injury, Drury scored just 1 goal and 5 points.

It would seem the pressures of New York and a big contract got to Drury and led to the Rangers' buying out the final year of his contract, the team owing him just over $5 million and having $3.717 million of that count against the salary cap next season.

During Gomez’s first season at Madison Square Garden, he recorded the second-highest point total of his career (70), but scored just 16 goals.

The next season Gomez again scored 16 goals, but he only registered 58 points, all while making $8 million.

In the offseason of 2009, the Rangers were able to unload Gomez’s $7.36-million cap hit and more than $30 million owed (for 5 more seasons) along with prospects to Montreal for Chris Higgins and prospects.

The Rangers threw big-time money at two players who they thought would be able to lead the team deep into the playoffs.

After two years one was traded, and four years later the other was bought out.

Fast forward from 2007 to 2011, and the Rangers again threw lots of money to a top free agent in hopes of having him get the team over the hump.

Will history repeat itself?

Richards will be re-united with Tortorella, where he won a Stanley Cup and was named the Conn Smythe winner in 2004 with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

But one has to look at the team and who was on it.

The Lightning had the Art Ross Trophy, Hart Memorial Trophy, and Lester B. Pearson Trophy winner in Martin St. Louis.

Cory Stillman scored 25 goals and had 80 points. Vincent Lecavalier scored 32 goals.

Fredrik Modin had 29 goals, and Dave Andreychuk scored 21 while Ruslan Fedotenko had 17.

On the blue line, Dan Boyle had 39 points and Pavel Kubina scored 17 goals to go along with 35 points.

In goal Nikolai Khabibulin went 28-19-7 with a 2.33 GAA and a .910 save percentage. Backup John Grahame went 18-9-1 with a 2.06 GAA and a .913 save percentage.

The 2003-04 Lightning were one of the best teams assembled in the 2000s, scoring 245 goals in the dead-puck era.

Do the New York Rangers have those kind of players and team at their disposal?

Richards was traded to Dallas during the 2007-08 season, was the focal point of the offence, and had 15 points in 18 playoff games.

However, in the three seasons that followed, he could not lead the Stars to the playoffs.

What’s going to be the difference in New York from Dallas?

In his three-plus seasons in Dallas, the Stars had goal scorers in Mike Ribeiro (27, 22, 19, 19), Brenden Morrow (32, 20, 33), Mike Modano (21), Niklas Hagman (27), Louis Eriksson (36, 29, 27), Steve Ott (19, 22), James Neal (24, 27, 21), and Jamie Benn (22, 22) along with Richards, and it got them nowhere.

In that same time frame, the Rangers had goal scorers in Jaromir Jagr (25), Chris Drury (25, 23), Brendan Shanahan (23), Nikolai Zherdev (23), Markus Naslund (24), Ryan Callahan (22, 19, 23), Marian Gaborik (42, 22), Vinny Prospal (20), Brandon Dubinbsky (20, 24), Derek Stepan (21), and Brian Boyle (21).

There isn’t much difference between the two teams offensively in terms of how much Richards will be counted on.

There is also the concussion issue that forced Richards to miss 10 games last season, and once a player has received a concussion, no matter how serious it may be, there is no telling when another may occur.

There is no denying that Brad Richards has talent and a proven track record, but there is never a sure thing.

To give that much money to Richard—making him the highest-paid player in the NHL over better players—may have the Rangers kicking themselves as they did with Drury and Gomez.

As the saying goes, only time will tell.