2008 U.S. Open Picks: Rafa Over Djokovic, Roddick Out Early

I did not do as well with my Wimbledon picks as I did with my French Open predictions, so I'm looking for redemption at the U.S. Open.  Here are my 127 picks for the men's singles tournament with explanations for each match.

FIRST ROUND

1-Rafael Nadal def. Bjorn Phau

The new world No. 1 has never gotten past the quarters at the U.S. Open, but he’s also never lost in the first round of a Grand Slam.

Olivier Rochus def. Ryler De Heart

Rochus has won only one match in his last seven majors, but he just won two matches on hard courts at the Olympics, so he should be able to sneak past the qualifier.

Viktor Troicki def. Carsten Ball

Both are Flushing Meadows rookies, but at least Troicki has won a match on Tour this year.

25-Philipp Kohlschreiber def. Luis Horna

Kohlschreiber has beaten Horna twice in his career.  Both in Auckland, New Zealand.  Both in the round of 32.  Both in straight sets.

22-Tomas Berdych def. Sam Querrey

Berdych dropped only three games in a straight-sets victory over the American earlier this year in Miami.

Nicolas Devilder def. Pablo Andujar

Devilder destroyed Andujar in two non-Tour events this year.

Florent Serra def. Rainer Schuettler

Schuettler won a total of five matches in the 16 Grand Slam events he played between the 2004 Australian and the 2008 French.  That’s the same amount of matches he won at this year’s Wimbledon alone.  Can the German keep his momentum going in New York?  I wouldn’t count on it. He’s just 3-7 on hard courts this year and he has an 0-1 lifetime mark versus Serra.

14-Ivo Karlovic def. Jan Minar

Karlovic just reached the semis in Cincinnati so he should be able to get past the qualifier.

9-James Blake def. Donald Young

Amazingly, these two Americans have never squared off, but I’ll give the edge to the more-seasoned Blake, who should be nice and spicy after being unceremoniously ousted from Beijing by Fernando Gonzalez.

Denis Gremelmayr def. Steve Darcis

Gremelmayr beat Feliciano Lopez and Marat Safin on hard courts earlier this month.

Mardy Fish def. Robert Smeets

Fish has won five of his last six opening round matches at this event.

24-Paul-Henri Mathieu def. Sebastien Grosjean

Mathieu beat Grosjean rather easily on hard courts in Moscow last year.

32-Gael Monfils def. Pablo Cuevas

Monfils reached the semi-finals at Roland Garros before skipping Wimbledon.  He should be able to get past the qualifier here.

Robin Soderling def. Evgeny Korolev

Korolev beat Soderling on clay earlier this year, but Soderling is the better hard court player.

Juan Carlos Ferrero def. Brendan Evans

Ferrero isn’t the same player who reached the finals here in 2003, but he’s still good enough to beat a guy who’s never won a match at the Open.

7-David Nalbandian def. Marcos Daniel

If you look at Nalbandian’s picture on usopen.org, you’ll find that he looks a lot like Freak Show from Harold and Kumar.

4-David Ferrer def. Martin Vassallo Arguello

Last year’s semi-finalist should have no problem with a guy who’s never won a match here.

John Isner def. Andreas Beck

Last year’s breakout star feels right at home in Queens.

Ryan Sweeting def. Roko Karanusic

The qualifier should be able to get past the Croatian, whose only match at the U.S. Open was a first-round loss in 2003.

29-Juan Monaco def. Kei Nishikori

Monaco reached the fourth round last year, while the Japanese player has never competed in a hard court Grand Slam.

17-Juan Martin Del Potro def. Guillermo Canas

Del Potro dropped only four games in a straight-sets win over his countryman in Cincinnati last year.

Oscar Hernandez def. Thomaz Bellucci

Talk about luck of the draw.  These guys have a combined 1-20 career record on hard courts, so they’re fortunate they’re playing each other in the first round.  I’ll take the one who holds a lifetime victory on the surface, but not by much.

Michael Berrer def. Jose Acasuso

This one could go either way but I’ll take Berrer because he beat Acasuso in a tight three-setter last year in Russia.

16-Gilles Simon def. Marcel Granollers

Granollers has never played singles here, while Simon has reached the second round the last two years.

10-Stanislas Wawrinka def. Simone Bolelli

Wawrinka just beat Bolelli in straight sets at a hard court tournament in Canada this year, but it was a close match, so I expect the same here.

Wayne Odesnik def. Fabio Fognini

Odesnik obliterated Fognini, 6-1, 6-2, at an Indian Wells qualifier this year.

Nicolas Lapentti def. Yen-Hsun Lu

Lapentti hasn’t won a match here in five years, but Lu’s never been victorious at the Open.

21-Mikhail Youzhny def. Jan Hernych

This is a low seed for a guy who has reached at least the fourth round at five of the last eight Grand Slams, including a semi-final appearance at the ’06 U.S. Open.

Jurgen Melzer def. 27-Feliciano Lopez

Melzer has the better record this year and he beat Lopez, albeit in three tight sets, at a hard court event in 2006.  This should be a good match.

Stephane Bohli def. Jiri Vanek

Vanek’s 0-5 in his career at America’s Grand Slam.

Michael Llodra def. Teimuraz Gabashvili

They split two hard court matches in 2007, but Llodra’s win was a straight sets victory in a main draw.

6-Andy Murray def. Sergio Roitman

This should be an easy win for the Brit.

8-Andy Roddick def. Fabrice Santoro

This is not the easiest of draws for Roddick, who lost to Santoro on carpet last year, but this is the U.S. Open, where the American has reached the quarters in six of the past seven years.

Ernests Gulbis def. Thomas Johansson

Gulbis beat Johansson 6-2, 6-1 on carpet last year.

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez def. Dominik Hrbaty

Look for the Spaniard to pick up his first win in New York against Hrbaty, who’s lost his last six Grand Slam matches and dropped to 389^th in the world.

Hyung-Taik Lee def. 31-Andreas Seppi

Lee reached the fourth round here last year.

20-Nicolas Kiefer def. Ivo Minar

Kiefer is a former quarterfinalist, while Minar has never won a match at Flushing Meadows.

Jarkko Nieminen def. Scoville Jenkins

Nieminen hasn’t had a whole lot of success at the U.S. Open other than a quarterfinal berth in 2005, but Jenkins hasn’t had a whole lot of success, period.

Tomas Zib def. Bobby Reynolds

Reynolds is 0-3 at his home major.

11-Fernando Gonzalez def. Ivan Navarro

Navarro actually holds the only victory in the series between these two, but it was three years ago on clay and Gonzalez has a far better track record at the U.S. Open.

15-Tommy Robredo def. Mischa Zverev

Robredo beat Zverev 7-5 in the fifth in the first round of the Australian this year.  Expect another tight one here.

Marat Safin def. Vincent Spadea

Safin should be able to keep the momentum going from his semi-final appearance at Wimbledon against his fellow veteran.

Carlos Moya def. Aisam-Ul-Haq Qureshi

Moya reached the quarters last year.

19-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga def. Santiago Ventura

Tsonga beat Ventura earlier in 2008 in Casablanca.

30-Marin Cilic def. Julien Benneteau

Cilic has never played the U.S. Open, but he’s had some good success in majors this year and is facing an opponent who is 0-4 at Flushing Meadows.

Robby Ginepri def. Amer Delic

Ginepri has reached at least the third round in each of the past three years, while Delic has never gotten there.

Nicolas Mahut def. Robert Kendrick

Mahut hasn’t had a great deal of success in majors, but it’s enough that I think he’ll be able to get past the qualifier.

3-Novak Djokovic def. Arnaud Clement

This is a tough draw for the number three seed, facing Clement who just reached the quarters at Wimbledon, but Djokovic got to the finals here last year.

5-Nikolay Davydenko def. Dudi Sela

Davydenko has reached back-to-back semis here.

Agustin Calleri def. Austin Krajicek

Krajicek, the 892^nd ranked player in the world, is competing in his first Grand Slam event.

Victor Hanescu def. Albert Montanes

Hanescu just beat Montanes at Indian Wells.

26-Dmitry Tursunov def. Eduardo Schwank

Tursunov has reached the third round here twice, while Schwank has never taken part in a U.S. Open.

18-Nicolas Almagro def. Frank Dancevic

Last year, Almagro got to the third round and Dancevic lost in the first.

Janko Tipsarevic def. Sam Warburg

Tipsarevic beat Warburg in straight sets at Indian Wells two years ago.

Gilles Muller def. Laurent Recouderc

The qualifier has more experience on these courts than the U.S. Open rookie.

Tommy Haas def. 12-Richard Gasquet

This is a bad draw for the number 12 seed.  Haas has reached the quarters here in three of the past four years.

13-Fernando Verdasco def. Igor Kunitsyn

Verdasco has never lost a first-round match here.

Rik De Voest def. Rui Machado

De Voest just took a set off of Tommy Haas.  That’s enough for me in this battle of qualifiers.

Jeremy Chardy def. Frederico Gil

What are the chances of two guys meeting in the first round at three straight Grand Slams?  Chardy goes for the sweep in New York.

23-Igor Andreev def. Marc Gicquel

This should be a good match.  These two split a pair of meetings last year, with Andreev winning on hard courts, which makes sense because he’s the better player on that surface.

28-Radek Stepanek def. Potito Starace

Neither has had a great deal of success at this event, but Stepanek is the better player.

Chris Guccione def. Jesse Levine

Guccione just beat Levine 6-3, 6-4 at the ATP Masters Series event in Cincinnati.

Paul Capdeville def. Thiago Alves

Capdeville has a little more experience in this qualifier showdown.

2-Roger Federer def. Maximo Gonzalez

Federer has an easy first couple of rounds in his attempt to reclaim his status as the best player in the world.

SECOND ROUND

1-Rafael Nadal def. Olivier Rochus

Nadal has won the last three meetings between these two.

25-Philipp Kohlschreiber def. Viktor Troicki

Kohlschreiber reached the third round last year and Troicki is competing in his first U.S. Open.

22-Tomas Berdych def. Nicolas Devilder

Berdych beat Devilder rather easily in Munich last year.

14-Ivo Karlovic def. Florent Serra

I’m not so sure Serra will get past Schuettler in the first round, so I’ll play it safe and pick Karlovic.

9-James Blake def. Denis Gremelmayr

Gremelmayr beat Blake on clay this year, but the American is a more experienced hard court player.

24-Paul-Henri Mathieu def. Mardy Fish

Mathieu beat Fish twice on hard courts last year, but they were both tight three-setters, so expect this match to take a while.

Robin Soderling def. 32-Gael Monfils

In a battle of the top-ranked unseeded player and the lowest-ranked seed, I’ll give the edge to Soderling, who has had more success at the U.S. Open and overall this year.

7-David Nalbandian def. Juan Carlos Ferrero

This is a tough one to pick.  Ferrero destroyed Nalbandian at the Australian earlier this year, but then the Argentine returned the favor at Indian Wells and has been playing better in 2008.

4-David Ferrer def. John Isner

Ferrer beat the American twice on hard courts last year.

29-Juan Monaco def. Ryan Sweeting

Monaco reached the fourth round in 2007.

17-Juan Martin Del Potro def. Oscar Hernandez

Hernandez should be happy just picking up his first U.S. Open victory.  Del Potro moves on.

16-Gilles Simon def. Michael Berrer

Simon is having a break-out year and he should be able to keep it going against Berrer.

10-Stanislas Wawrinka def. Wayne Odesnik

Wawrinka reached the fourth round in 2007, while Odesnik has never gotten past the second.

21-Mikhail Youzhny def. Nicolas Lapentti

Youzhny has won three of four career meetings with Lapentti, including an easy straight sets victory at the 2007 French.

Jurgen Melzer def. Stephane Bohli

Melzer should be able to get back to the third round for the first time since 2004.

6-Andy Murray def. Michael Llodra

Murray defeated Llodra 6-4, 6-3 in Metz, France last year.

Ernests Gulbis def. 8-Andy Roddick

I almost pulled the trigger on a Roddick upset in the first round, and I’m not going to wimp out again.  Gulbis reached the fourth round here last year and has been playing well during the hard court season, defeating No. 29 Jarkko Nieminen and No. 8 James Blake at the Cincinnati tournament a month ago.  Roddick started off 2008 great, winning two tournaments, including a victory over Roger Federer in March, but that was the last time he beat a top 40 player on hard courts.  Since then, he was ousted in the second round of Wimbledon and I believe he will fail to reach a single Grand Slam quarter in a calendar year for the first time since 2000.

Hyung-Taik Lee def. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez

Look for Lee to continue on in his quest to reach the Round of 16 again.

20-Nicolas Kiefer def. Jarkko Nieminen

Kiefer beat Nieminen 6-3, 6-2 on the hard courts of Miami this year.

11-Fernando Gonzalez def. Tomas Zib

Gonzalez should be able to reach the third round for the fifth time in seven years.

15-Tommy Robredo def. Marat Safin

These two have split eight career matches, but Robredo leads 2-1 on hard courts, including a victory in Toronto in 2006.

19-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga def. Carlos Moya

Tsonga has a much better record this year and won the only meeting between these two in 2004, when he was only 19.

Robby Ginepri def. 30-Marin Cilic

Ginepri’s experience at the U.S. Open and the support of the home crowd should give him the edge here.

3-Novak Djokovic def. Nicolas Mahut

Djokovic dispatched Mahut rather easily at a hard court event in 2006.

5-Nikolay Davydenko def. Agustin Calleri

Davydenko is 4-0 lifetime versus Calleri.

26-Dmitry Tursunov def. Victor Hanescu

Tursunov beat Hanescu in straight sets at a non-Tour event last year.

18-Nicolas Almagro def. Janko Tipsarevic

Almagro is 32-13 this year, while Tipsarevic is only 20-16.  The Spaniard also got one round further than his counterpart at the 2007 Open.

Tommy Haas def. Gilles Muller

This is a favorable draw for Haas.

13-Fernando Verdasco def. Rik De Voest

Verdasco should be able to move past the qualifier into round three.

23-Igor Andreev def. Jeremy Chardy

Andreev has won 25 more matches than Chardy has competed in this year.

28-Radek Stepanek def. Chris Guccione

They’ve split two hard court matches this year, but Stepanek won the most recent one in Memphis and he has more experience at the U.S. Open.

2-Roger Federer def. Paul Capdeville

The qualifier should be no match for an angry Federer.

THIRD ROUND

1-Rafael Nadal def. 25-Philipp Kohlschreiber

Nadal is 4-0 versus Kohlschreiber.

14-Ivo Karlovic def. 22-Tomas Berdych

Karlovic has won the last two meetings with Berdych, both on hard courts.

9-James Blake def. 24-Paul-Henri Mathieu

Blake is 2-0 on hard courts against Mathieu in the past two years.

7-David Nalbandian def. Robin Soderling

Nalbandian is 4-1 against Soderling, including a win in their only hard court meeting back in 2004.

4-David Ferrer def. 29-Juan Monaco

Ferrer crushed Monaco 6-2, 6-2 on a hard surface in Miami last year.

17-Juan Martin Del Potro def. 16-Gilles Simon

Simon beat Del Potro in a tight three-setter on hard courts last year, but the 17 seed is the hottest player in the world not named Rafa.  He’s won four straight tournaments and has only dropped two sets in those 20 matches.

21-Mikhail Youzhny def. 10-Stanislas Wawrinka

Youzhny beat Wawrinka in straight sets on hard courts last year in Canada.

6-Andy Murray def. Jurgen Melzer

Murray beat Melzer at Indian Wells this year.

Ernests Gulbis def. Hyung-Taik Lee

After his upset of Roddick, Gulbis should have no problem getting back to the fourth round.

20-Nicolas Kiefer def. 11-Fernando Gonzalez

Kiefer is 3-0 in his career against Gonzalez, including hard court victories in ’06 and ’07.

15-Tommy Robredo def. 19-Jo-Wilfried Tsonga

Tsonga hasn’t played since May, so a fourth round appearance is asking too much.

3-Novak Djokovic def. Robby Ginepri

Djokovic’s recent straight sets victory over Ginepri at the Olympics was his fourth in four career matches with the American.

5-Nikolay Davydenko def. 26-Dmitry Tursunov

Davydenko is 4-0 lifetime in this rivalry, including a 7-5, 6-3 win on hard courts in Doha, Qatar this year.

Tommy Haas def. 18-Nicolas Almagro

Haas has reached the quarters each of the past two years, while Almagro has never got further than this round.

13-Fernando Verdasco def. 23-Igor Andreev

Verdasco is 3-0 in his career against Andreev, including a five-set victory at the 2004 U.S. Open.

2-Roger Federer def. 28-Radek Stepanek

This will be the first real test for Federer, who lost earlier this year in two tiebreakers to Stepanek on the clay of Rome.  But I don’t see the four-time defending champion having his 17 straight Grand Slam semi-finals streak snapped against a guy he holds a 4-2 lifetime mark against.

FOURTH ROUND

1-Rafael Nadal def. 14-Ivo Karlovic

Nadal and Karlovic played three tiebreakers at Queen’s Club this year.  I don’t think the match will be as tight on hard courts, where Karlovic’s serve is less of a weapon.

7-James Blake def. 9-David Nalbandian

Nalbandian has failed to reach the quarters in his last nine Grand Slams.  That’s pretty shocking for the No. 7 player in the world.

4-David Ferrer def. 17-Juan Martin Del Potro

Tough match-up for the red hot Del Potro.  Ferrer hasn’t dropped a set in two meetings this year.

6-Andy Murray def. 21-Mikhail Youzhny

Murray beat five top 46 players en route to the Cincinnati tournament championship.  He’s playing very well on hard courts right now.

20-Nicolas Kiefer def. Ernests Gulbis

Both of these guys have been playing well this summer.  Kiefer has wins over Youzhny, Davydenko, and Blake, while Gulbis has beaten Nieminen and Blake.  I think Kiefer’s experience is too much, though, and Gulbis’s great run ends here.

3-Novak Djokovic def. 15-Tommy Robredo

Djokovic has won the past three meetings between these two.

5-Nikolay Davydenko def. Tommy Haas

Davydenko beat Haas in straight sets in last year’s quarters and then followed that up with another victory at the 2008 ATP Masters Series event in Canada.

2-Roger Federer def. 13-Fernando Verdasco

If Federer can beat Verdasco 6-3, 6-3 on clay earlier this year, then he can certainly beat him on hard courts.

QUARTERFINALS

1-Rafael Nadal def. 7-James Blake

Blake beat Nadal three times on hard courts in 2005 and 2006, but the new best player in the world has closed the gap, defeating the American twice this year at Miami and Indian Wells.

6-Andy Murray def. 4-David Ferrer

Murray and Ferrer split a pair of matches in 2006, with Murray’s victory coming on hard courts.  The Scotsman has been playing great during the hard court season, while Ferrer has lost three straight.

3-Novak Djokovic def. 20-Nicolas Kiefer

Djokovic beat Kiefer twice last year, including a straight sets win on hard courts.

2-Roger Federer def. 5-Nikolay Davydenko

There aren’t many more lopsided rivalries in tennis.  Federer is 12-0.

SEMI-FINALS

1-Rafael Nadal def. 6-Andy Murray

Nadal is 5-0 in his career against Murray, with all the matches taking place in the past two years.

3-Novak Djokovic def. 2-Roger Federer

I really want to pick Federer, but I can’t justify it.  While he won the last meeting between these two tennis greats, that match was played on clay and Djokovic retired in the middle of the second set.  Prior to that, the Serb ended Federer’s streak of 10 straight Grand Slam finals when he beat him in three sets at the Australian.  Furthermore, Djokovic is 11-3 during this hard court season, while the former world number one is only 4-3.

FINAL

1-Rafael Nadal def. 3-Novak Djokovic

These two have already played six times this year in semis or finals, with Nadal winning four times, including a semi-final victory at the Olympics.  It’s difficult to pick against Rafa these days, especially now that he’s proven he can win on hard courts.  I’ll take Nadal in five sets.

Jordan Schwartz is Bleacher Report's New York Yankees Community Leader. His book "Memoirs of the Unaccomplished Man"is available at amazon.com, barnesandnoble.com and authorhouse.com. Jordan can be reached at [e-mail]