2008 French Open Picks: Bet on Rafael Nadal

Here are my 127 picks (with explanations) for the 2008 French Open. Anyone who reads the entire thing gets a cookie.

FIRST ROUND

Roger Federer (1) def. Sam Querrey

Federer has reached the final here the past two years and beat Querrey in straight sets in the only meeting between the two.

Albert Montanes def. Kristof Vliegen

Both reached the third round last year, but Montanes got that far in 2006 as well and the Spaniard is playing better this season.

Victor Crivoi def. David Marrero

Crivoi should win this battle of the qualifiers. He beat Marrero twice in straight sets on clay in 2006.

Mario Ancic def. Andreas Seppi (31)

Ancic beat Seppi in a hard court event this year in Croatia and the unseeded player reached the quarters in Paris two years ago, while the Italian has never made it out of the first round.

Ivo Karlovic (20) def. Alejandro Falla

The Croatian’s big serve is neutralized on the clay, but Karlovic has still managed to reach the second round the past two years here and I don’t think 106^thranked Falla is the man to end that streak.

Julien Benneteau def. Vincent Spadea

The Frenchman reached the quarterfinals in 2006, while the American has never gotten past the third round. Benneteau takes this one.

Paul Capdeville def. Mischa Zverev

Capdeville is a qualifier who’s been here before and therefore has more experience on the red clay of Paris than the German who has never played here before.

Juan Monaco (13) def. Robin Soderling

The two have split a pair of clay court meetings in their careers, but Monaco reached the fourth round at the French last year, while the Swede hasn’t won a match here since 2005.

Stanislas Wawrinka (9) def. Philipp Kohlschreiber

This is a good first round match-up between two of the top 35 players in the world.  Wawrinka’s best finish in Paris is the third round but that was in 2005, while Kohlschreiber has reached the second round the past two years.  I’ll go with the ninth seed because he’s been playing better this season.

Marin Cilic def. Robin Haase

Cilic is 0-1 in his career at the French Open, but Haase has never even played in the event. I’ll go with the Bosnian player because he won a meeting between the two earlier this year in India.

Filippo Volandri def. Pablo Andujar

The Italian reached the Round of 16 last year so he’ll have enough experience to beat the qualifier Andujar, whom he beat on clay in Turin last year.

Fernando Gonzalez (24) def. Pablo Cuevas

Gonzalez has beaten Cuevas twice this year, but their only clay court meeting was a tight one that went to three sets and involved two tiebreakers.  I’ll take the seeded player but it won’t be easy.

Igor Andreev (27) def. Potito Starace

The Russian hasn’t dropped a set in two clay court meetings with the Italian.

Robby Ginepri def. Donald Young

At least we know one American will make it to the second round of the French Open this year. I’ll take Ginepri because he’s playing better this year and is the only one who has competed here before.

Victor Hanescu def. Dudi Sela

Hanescu reached the quarters in 2005, while Sela has never won a match here.

Florent Serra def. Richard Gasquet (8)

This is a match-up between two Frenchmen who now live in Switzerland.  Both have won at least one match here, but not much more over the past three years and each player is playing .500 tennis in 2008. I’ll take the upset because Serra beat Gasquet in their only career ATP contest back in 2006.

Nikolay Davydenko (4) vs. Thomas Johansson

Davydenko reached the semi-finals last year and has beaten Johansson in their last two meetings. He’s also 29-9 in 2008.

Marat Safin def. Jean-Rene Lisnard

Safin usually plays well enough at the French to at least beat a qualifier in the first round.

Diego Junqueira def. Adrian Mannarino

Neither has played a main draw match this year, so I’ll go with the qualifier.

Ivan Ljubicic (28) def. Eric Prodon

The Croatian was a semi-finalist two years ago, while the Frenchman has never won a match here in two tries.

Juan Carlos Ferrero (23) def. Marcos Daniel

The 2003 champ has never lost in the first round at the French Open.

Jurgen Melzer def. Peter Luczak

Melzer has had some moderate success in the past here, while Luczak has never won a match.

Gael Monfils def. Arnaud Clement

This is a match-up between two Frenchmen going in opposite directions.  The younger Monfils has reached at least the third round the past two years, while the older Clement has won just one match here since 2003.

Scoville Jenkins def. Luis Horna

I wanted to take Jenkins over the 14th seed Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, but after Tsonga pulled out due to an injury and was replaced by Horna, my Jenkins pick is less impressive.

Tommy Robredo (12) vs. Guillermo Coria

The 2004 runner-up has dropped to 733^rd in the world and hasn’t played a Grand Slam event since the ’06 US Open. Coria beat Robredo on clay three times between 2001 and 2004, but that was a lifetime ago. I’ll take the three time  quarter finalist this time but it may be a lot closer than people think.

Marc Gicquel def. Viktor Troicki

There’s not a lot of experience in this one. Troicki has never played here and Gicquel has gotten out of the first round just once. That’s enough for me.

Jesse Huta Galung def. Jiri Vanek

Vanek hasn’t won a Grand Slam match in two years, but the last one came at Roland Garros. Still, I’ll take the qualifier who will have a few matches on clay already under his belt this week.

Radek Stepanek (21) def. Gilles Simon

Stepanek hasn’t lost a first round match here since 2004, while Simon just picked up his first ever French victory last year.

Lleyton Hewitt (25) def. Nicolas Mahut

Mahut is 0-6 during his career in Paris, while Hewitt hasn’t missed the third round since last millennium. This is an easy one.

Agustin Calleri def. Mardy Fish

Calleri hasn’t won a match here in seven years, but Fish has never advanced to the second round of the French Open. I’ll take the more experienced clay courter.

Fabrice Santoro def. Florian Mayer

Neither one has had a whole lot of recent success at Roland Garros, but Santoro has been playing in this event since I was six, so that’s got to be worth something.

David Ferrer (5) def. Steve Darcis

Ferrer has never lost a first round match here. Darcis has never been in a first round match here.

James Blake (7) def. Rainer Schuettler

Blake’s won more matches on clay this year than Schuettler has won on all surfaces combined.

Ernests Gulbis def. Simon Greul

Latvia’s great hope reached the second round last year and should be able to again this year.

Thierry Ascione def. Bobby Reynolds

Ascione won his first round match last year, proving he can win at the French.  That’s more than can be said about Reynolds.

Janko Tipsarevic (32) def. Nicolas Lapentti

Tipsarevic already beat Lapentti this year on clay at the ATP Masters Series event in Monte Carlo. But it was a close match, as this one probably will be.

Marcos Baghdatis (17) def. Simone Bolelli

Baghdatis proved he can win on clay last year when he reached the fourth round here.

Juan Martin Del Potro def. Josselin Ouanna

I thought Del Potro would lose to Fabio Fognini, but after the Italian pulled out, I’ll take Del Potro to beat his lucky loser replacement.

Michael Llodra def. Olivier Patience

They both reached the third round last year but Llodra is 15-10 this season, while Patience is just 1-5.

Tomas Berdych (11) def. Robert Smeets

Berdych beat Smeets twice in Australia last year and the Aussie has never played in the French.

Carlos Moya (16) def. Eduardo Schwank

The 1998 champ has only dropped one first round match here, while his opponent has never even participated in one.

Marcel Granollers def. Michael Berrer

In a match-up of two French Open rookies, I give the edge to the Spaniard who’s playing much better this year.

Oscar Hernandez def. Ivo Minar

Hernandez beat Minar in four sets in the first round of the Australian Open this year and he’s even stronger on clay.

Paul-Henri Mathieu (18) def. Gustavo Kuerten

The 140^thranked Kuerten is not the same player who won this event three times about a decade ago. Mathieu should have no problem here.

Guillermo Canas (29) def. Wayne Odesnik

Canas has reached the quarters three times, including last year. Odesnik has never played here.

Hyung-Taik Lee def. Jonas Bjorkman

Lee beat Bjorkman on clay last year in Monaco and he should be able to do it again in France.

Miguel Angel Lopez Jaen def. Frank Dancevic

The qualifier has the advantage of already playing a few matches on the red clay.

Novak Djokovic (3) def. Denis Gremelmayr

Last year’s semi-finalist should have no problem with the French Open rookie.

David Nalbandian (6) def. Carlos Berlocq

Nalbandian’s never gone one and done at Roland Garros and Berlocq is 3-10 this year.

Frederico Gil def. Jeremy Chardi

Gil’s playing well this year, including his run through this week’s qualifiers.

Sergio Roitman def. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez

They’ve split two career meetings, but Roitman won the only match-up on clay.

Dmitry Tursunov (30) def. Daniel Brands

Tursunov has enough clay success to convince me he can best the qualifier.

Nicolas Almagro (19) def. Boris Pashanski

Almagro just dominated Pashanski 6-2, 6-3 on clay in Brazil.

Olivier Rochus def. Sebastian Decoud

Rochus has reached the third round twice here. That experience should be enough to get past the qualifier.

Jose Acasuso def. Dominik Hrbaty

Acasuso’s won all three career meetings between these two.

Andy Murray (10) def. Jonathan Eysseric

Murray’s never won a match at the French but he has gone 5-4 on clay this year and should have enough to get past the wild card.

Mikhail Youzhny (15) def. Benjamin Becker

Youzhny beat Becker in a two tiebreaker affair last year. That, and the fact that he reached the fourth round in 2007, convinces me he’ll win this match-up.

Maximo Gonzalez def. Roko Karanusic

Gonzalez won a clay meeting between the pair of qualifiers two years ago.

Juan Ignacio Chela def. John Isner

The 2004 quarterfinalist should have enough to beat the first timer from America.

Fernando Verdasco (22) def. Santiago Ventura

Verdasco advanced to the Round of 16 last year, while Ventura’s never won here.

Jarkko Nieminen (26) def. Marc Lopez

Nieminen got lucky when his scheduled first round opponent Nicolas Kiefer pulled out. The Fin should be able to get past this lucky loser.

Martin Vassallo Arguello def. Feliciano Lopez

Lopez hasn’t won a match at the French since advancing all the way to the fourth round in 2004. Vassallo Arguello has won just one Grand Slam match since reaching the Round of 16 in 2006 here. The Argentine has had more recent success in Paris, so I’ll give him the slight edge.

Chris Guccione def. Nicolas Devilder

Guccione reached the second round back in 2005, while Devilder is 0-1 in his career at the French. The Aussie (11-6) is also playing a lot better this year.

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Thomaz Bellucci

Nadal’s never lost at Roland Garos. I don’t think the qualifier is going to change that.

SECOND ROUND

Roger Federer (1) def. Albert Montanes

Federer beat Montanes in straight sets in their only ever clay court meeting back in 2005.

Mario Ancic def. Victor Crivoi

One win is enough for the qualifier. The 2006 quarterfinalist should move on.

Ivo Karlovic (20) def. Julien Benneteau

Karlovic has never reached the third round at the French, but I think he breaks through this year against a guy with less success on clay in 2008. This should be a great match.

Juan Monaco (13) def. Paul Capdeville

Monaco beat Capdeville in a qualifier last year and he should do the same again next week.

Stanislas Wawrinka (9) def. Marin Cilic

Wawrinka is 3-0 against Cilic in the past two years, including a couple wins on clay.

Fernando Gonzalez (24) def. Filippo Volandri

Gonzalez is 3-1 in his career versus Volandri, including a 2-1 record on dirt.     

Igor Andreev (27) def. Robby Ginepri

Ginepri should be happy with his first ever French Open win. The ’07 quarter finalist moves on.

Victor Hanescu def. Florent Serra

Hanescu reached the quarters in 2005 and he’ll look to make another run in 2008.

Nikolay Davydenko (4) vs. Marat Safin

Davydenko is 3-2 in his career against Safin, but 2-0 on clay.

Ivan Ljubicic (28) def. Diego Junqueira

The 2006 semi finalist should be able to get past the qualifier.

Juan Carlos Ferrero (23) def. Jurgen Melzer

Ferrero has beaten Melzer four out of five times in their careers, including once on clay.

Gael Monfils def. Scoville Jenkins

Monfils reached the fourth round two years ago, so he shouldn’t have trouble with the qualifier.

Tommy Robredo (12) def. Marc Gicquel

Robredo and Gicquel split a pair of matches last year, neither of which was on clay. So I’ll go with the three-time quarter finalist over a guy who’s never gotten out of the second round.

Radek Stepanek (21) def. Jesse Huta Galung

I’ll take Stepanek to reach the third round for the third time in his career over the qualifier.

Lleyton Hewitt (25) def. Agustin Calleri

Hewitt has won two of three meetings between these two, including the only one played on clay.

David Ferrer (5) def. Fabrice Santoro

They’ve split two career meetings on hard courts so I’ll go with the guy who’s won a match here over the past three years.

James Blake (7) def. Ernests Gulbis

Blake got to the third round two years ago. I think he can do it again.

Janko Tipsarevic (32) def. Thierry Ascione

They’ve split four lifetime matches, but Tipsarevic won the one on clay.

Marcos Baghdatis (17) def. Juan Martin Del Potro

Del Potro beat Baghdatis on hard courts last year in Miami, but I think the Cypriot has the advantage on the red stuff.

Tomas Berdych (11) def. Michael Llodra

Berdych has never lost to Llodra, including a match played on clay in 2005.

Carlos Moya (16) def. Marcel Granollers

Moya beat Granollers on the clay of Barcelona last year.

Paul-Henri Mathieu (18) def. Oscar Hernandez

Mathieu beat Hernandez in straight sets on clay in 2005.

Guillermo Canas (29) def. Hyung-Taik Lee

Lee beat Canas in straight sets at the US Open last year, but I think it will be a different story on Canas’ favorite surface.

Nova Djokovic (3) def. Miguel Angel Lopez Jaen

The qualifier shouldn’t be any match for last year’s semi-finalist.

David Nalbandian (6) def. Frederico Gil

Nalbandian destroyed Gil 6-1, 6-2 on clay in 2006.

Dmitry Tursunov (30) def. Sergio Roitman

Roitman’s never won a match here. I’ll give him one, but not two. Tursunov reaches the third round like he did in 2006.

Nicolas Almagro (19) def. Olivier Rochus

Almagro has made the second round three straight years. With a 27-9 record this season, I think 2008 will be the year he breaks through to the third round.

Jose Acasuso def. Andy Murray (10)

Acasuso won three matches during the 2005 French Open. That’s three more than Murray’s won here in his life.

Mikhail Youzhny (15) def. Maximo Gonzalez

Youzhny reached the fourth round here in 2007. He should be able to get past a guy who hasn’t won a tour match this year.

Fernando Verdasco (22) def. Juan Ignacio Chela

This could be the best match of the second round. They’ve split six lifetime meetings, with Chela holding a 3-2 advantage on clay, but Verdasco won their first round clash at the 2006 French Open. The Spaniard has had more recent success at Roland Garros, so I’m going to give him the nod in what should be a tight five setter.

Jarko Nieminen (26) def. Martin Vassallo Arguello

The Argentine is 1-7 this year, so Nieminen should be able to slip by.

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Chris Guccione

Guccione actually has a 1-0 career record against Nadal after the second-ranked player retired in the first set of a match they played in Sydney last year. But this is the French Open, and Rafa doesn’t lose here.

THIRD ROUND

Roger Federer (1) def. Mario Ancic

Federer holds a 4-1 lifetime record versus Ancic, including a straight set victory at the ’06 French.

Juan Monaco (13) def. Ivo Karlovic (20)

Karlovic should be pleased with his first third round appearance at the French, but he won’t go any further.

Fernando Gonzalez (24) def. Stanislas Wawrinka (9)

When did Wawrinka become a top ten player? It won’t matter here because Gonzalez holds a 4-0 lifetime record head-to-head with the Swiss player, with all of the matches coming in 2006.

Igor Andreev (27) def. Victor Hanescu

This should be a great match. They’ve split a pair of career clay court meetings and both have reached the quarterfinals of this event. The only difference is that Andreev did it last year, while Hanescu hasn’t won a match at the French since turning the trick back in 2005.

Nikolay Davydenko (4) def. Ivan Ljubicic (28)

They’ve split six career meetings, but Davydenko has won both of the matches contested on clay, including a 6-4, 6-1 drubbing in Hamburg this year.

Juan Carlos Ferrero (23) def. Gael Monfils

I say Ferrero gets back to the fourth round for the first time since he won the whole thing back in 2003.

Tommy Robredo (12) def. Radek Stepanek (21)

Stepanek won the last meeting, but Robredo won the previous five, including all three played on clay.

David Ferrer (5) def. Lleyton Hewitt (25)

Hewitt hasn’t played a single match on clay this year. Not a good way to tune up for the French.

Janko Tipsarevic (32) def. James Blake (7)

Tipsarevic already beat Blake on clay this year and he should do it again next week.

Tomas Berdych (11) def. Marcos Baghdatis (17)

They have similar credentials, but Berdych is playing slightly better this year.

Carlos Moya (16) def. Paul Henri-Mathieu (18)

Mathieu hasn’t reached the fourth round since 2002. He won’t get back there this year going up against the 1998 champ.

Novak Djokovic (3) def. Guillermo Canas (29)

Djokovic has won both career meetings, but they were both on hard courts. Still, the number three player in the world is good enough on all surfaces to beat Canas for a third time.

David Nalbandian (6) def. Dmitry Tursunov (30)

Nalbandian came back from two sets down to beat Tursunov in this round at the ’06 French. Expect a similar result here.

Nicolas Almagro (19) def. Jose Acasuso

Almagro has won the last six meetings, including five straight on clay.

Fernando Verdasco (22) def. Mikhail Youzhny (15)

Verdasco won easily during a previous meeting on clay this year.

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Jarkko Nieminen (26)

Nadal’s 4-0 lifetime against the Fin, including two matches on clay.

FOURTH ROUND

Roger Federer (1) def. Juan Monaco (13)

Federer beat Monaco on clay just last year.

Igor Andreev (27) def. Fernando Gonzalez (24)

I feel a little uncomfortable picking a Russian to beat a player from Chile on clay, but since he did it twice last year, I’m going to go ahead and do it.

Nikolay Davydenko (4) def. Juan Carlos Ferrero (23)

Two Russians in the quarters of the French?  Sure, when Davydenko has been there twice in the past three years.

David Ferrer (5) def. Tommy Robredo (12)

Ferrer’s won the last three meetings with two being on clay this year.

Tomas Berdych (11) def. Janko Tipsarevic (32)

Berdych has never been to the quarters here, but Tipsarevic has never even reached the round of 16.

Novak Djokovic (3) def. Carlos Moya (16)

They’ve split four career matches with each winning one on clay and one on hard courts.  Djokovic beat the elder Moya in straights at last year’s US Open and I think he’ll do the same here. Beat him, that is, not necessarily in straight sets.

Nicolas Almagro (19) def. David Nalbandian (6)

They’ve played four sets on clay this year.  Almagro has won them all.

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Fernando Verdasco (22)

Another guy Nadal’s never lost to.

QUARTER FINALS

Roger Federer (1) def. Igor Andreev (27)

Federer beat Andreev on clay in 2004. He’s also the best player in the world.  That’s enough for me.

Nikolay Davydenko (4) def. David Ferrer (5)

Davydenko beat Ferrer last year.  I say he does it again to reach the semis for the second straight year.

Novak Djokovic (3) def. Tomas Berdych (11)

Berdych’s run ends here as Djokovic returns to the semis.

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Nicolas Almagro (19)

Nadal completes the dream final four with his third clay win over Almagro in three tries.

SEMI-FINALS

Roger Federer (1) def. Nikolay Davydenko (4)

12 career meetings. 12 wins for Federer. Make it 13.

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Novak Djokovic (3)

Nadal just beat Novak on clay in Hamburg. Look for him to do it again.

FINALS

Rafael Nadal (2) def. Roger Federer (1)

Federer picked up his first career win on clay over Nadal last year, but since then, Rafa has taken two more clay finals at Monte Carlo and Hamburg in 2008. It would be a great story if Roger, mired in his worst year since becoming the top player in the world, could somehow beat his nemesis to complete the lifetime Grand Slam and supplant his spot as the greatest player of all time. I hope it happens, but I don’t think it will. 

Until someone beats Nadal at the French, I’m picking him to go all the way every time. Look for the same result as the last two years: Nadal over Federer in the French Open final. Rafael takes home his fourth straight Roland Garros title.