Roberto Luongo, Vancouver Canucks' Goalie: Overrated or Over-Criticized?

Buried within arbitrator Richard Bloch's 20-page decision regarding Ilya Kovalchuk's contract situation, there was a mention of Vancouver Canucks' goalie Roberto Luongo.

Bloch implied that Luongo's recently signed 12-year, $62 million extension could still be rejected by the NHL.

Such a decision would make the All-Star goalie an unrestricted free agent, a prospect that at first glance would seemingly terrify the Canucks faithful.

Or maybe not.

Bloch's decision has set off a firestorm of debate regarding whether a rejection of Luongo's contract would actually be a good thing for Vancouver's future.

The main argument? Luongo is overrated and overpaid for his current production.

NHL.fanhouse.com hockey blogger Monte Stewart even posited that the Canucks would be better off with former Chicago Blackhawks' goalie Antti Niemi or young prospect Cory Schneider as starting goalie, due to their smaller cap hits.

These type of arguments have flooded the hockey blogosphere over the past week.

So is Roberto Luongo not actually an elite NHL goalie? Would the Canucks be better off using his $5.33 million annual cap hit on another part of the roster?

The answer is a resounding no to both questions; Roberto Luongo is still a fantastic goalie.

The main arguments against Luongo are as follows.

First, that he is a choker in high-pressure situations. Second, that his current statistical numbers do not match his reputation. And third, that paying top dollar for a goalie is not a blueprint for championships in the "New NHL".

Let's take a look at these arguments, one at a time.

No. 1—Luongo is a choker.

Luongo has been in three postseasons as a member of the Vancouver Canucks, and the Canucks have yet to win a championship.   

Because Luongo is the highest profile player on the team, their inability to break through has been blamed on him. Their misguided decision to name him captain likely has also contributed to criticism, as his leadership ability is constantly called into question as well.

In addition, he's had a few particularly terrible playoff games that have cost the Canucks.

But let's take a look at Luongo's actual playoff statistics and compare them to his regular season numbers.

Career Regular Season Statistics: 2.57 GAA, .918 save percentage

Career Playoff Statistics: 2.46 GAA, .919 save percentage

So, Luongo actually puts up slightly better numbers in the postseason than the regular season. Definitely a sign of a choker.

The numbers are a bit inflated by his stellar 2006-07 postseason. But Luongo has played very well against all opponents in the postseason with the exception of one: Chicago.

In five out of his 12 playoff games versus the Blackhawks, Luongo has allowed five goals or more. He certainly struggles against Chicago in the playoffs.

But is that a result of Luongo choking, or simply because Chicago has been a better team than Vancouver over the last two seasons?

The "Luongo vs. Blackhawks" matchup is very similar to Peyton Manning's struggles against the New England Patriots. Manning couldn't beat them, and was labeled a choker.

Then, the Colts built a better, deeper overall roster than the Patriots, and Manning beat them.

Expect the same to happen to Luongo, especially now that Chicago has been ravaged by cap hell.

Oh, and by the way: he just earned a gold medal as starting goaltender for Canada in the Olympics. Seems to me a true choker would have found a way to screw that up.

No. 2—Luongo's stats aren't that impressive.

This one actually has some validity.

Luongo's 2003-04 was his best season as a professional goalie, as he finished with a .930 save percentage for the Florida Panthers. Considering the quality of his defense in front of him, it may have been one of the best seasons by a goalie in recent hockey history.

He has not matched that number since, averaging a .917 save percentage in his next five seasons.

His .913 save percentage in 2009-10 was his lowest since his rookie year.

However, what Luongo brings to the table as an elite goalie is consistency.

Since the lockout, Luongo has the fourth-best save percentage of goalies who have started each season for their respective teams. He only trails fellow elite goalies Tomas Vokoun, Henrik Lundqvist, and Martin Brodeur.

Luongo has not led the league in save percentage once since the lockout. But his value comes from his ability to put up borderline-elite statistics year after year.  No one worries about Luongo having a "Niklas Backstrom circa 2009" type season. And don't forget, the Canucks' defense is far from stellar.

In fact, to further the Peyton Manning analogy, Manning has not led the NFL in yards, QB Rating, or touchdowns since 2006. But he is still considered the preeminent passer of his generation because he is always in the top five or 10 in each of those categories.

One year wonders may put up better numbers on occasion. But he's always near the top. 

The same goes for Luongo.

No. 3—Teams with high-paid goalies don't win Stanley Cups in the post-lockout NHL.

This has become a particularly popular theory recently, with both the Chicago Blackhawks and Philadelphia Flyers riding cheap goalies to the Stanley Cup Finals.

Hockey fans have noticed that teams with the highest profile goalies—like New Jersey, Vancouver, Calgary, and the New York Rangers—have been unable to win championships in the post-lockout NHL.

The teams that win Cups, the theory proposes, did not waste big money on a goalie. With the extra cash, they were able to build a deeper overall roster that allowed them to win the Cup.

It seems logical. It's also completely and totally wrong.

Saving money on a goalie and using the extra cap space on defense could very well work. The problem is, the teams that supposedly succeeded with a cheap goalie actually spent lots of money on the position.

They just weren't using their most expensive goalie in the playoffs.

Take the most recent champions, the Chicago Blackhawks.

Antti Niemi was a huge bargain at a $826,875 cap hit. However, Chicago did not use the money they didn't spend on a franchise goalie to improve their defense. They were already spending it on their backup goalie, Cristobal Huet, who has a mammoth $5.625 million cap hit.

The 2007-08 champion Detroit Red Wings were paying backup Dominik Hasek more than playoff starter Chris Osgood. Same with the 2005-06 champs, the Carolina Hurricanes, who paid Martin Gerber more than playoff hero Cam Ward to sit on the bench.

The other two post-lockout champs, the Pittsburgh Penguins and Anaheim Ducks, spent about $5 million in cap space to pay their franchise goalies during their Stanley Cup seasons.

In fact, on average, Stanley Cup champions in the cap era have spent $4.754 million on the goaltender position. Makes Luongo's $5.33 million cap hit a bit less difficult to swallow, doesn't it?

It's certainly possible to win a Cup with a cheap starting goalie, as teams like Chicago, Detroit, and Carolina have proved in the salary cap era.  However, those teams did not win it all because of some gigantic savings at the goalie position. 

The Canucks have failed to win the Cup, not because of an albatross of a goalie contract, but because they have not had a strong enough roster to compete with the true elite teams in the Western Conference.

Luongo is basically being paid market value for an elite NHL goaltender, a title which he still deserves.  And with the Canucks improving their defensive depth in the offseason, this could finally be the year that he sheds the undeserved "choker" label once and for all.