2010 Australian Open: Analyzing the Top 16 Women's Seeds at Melbourne

With the seeds for the 2010 Australian Open in place, here's a look at the top 16 women and how they're likely to fare in Melbourne next week.

 

No. 1 Serena Williams

Williams will be taking part in her 11th Australian Open as she looks to win the first slam of the calendar year for the fifth time overall and for the third time in four years. The younger Williams sister will be entering the event as the top seed and the No. 1 player in the world for the second time overall—the first time since 2003.

Williams knocked off three top-10 seeds in Melbourne last year (Kuznetsova, Dementieva, and Safina) en route to the championship and she holds a lifetime 44-6 record at the event.

Williams’ prowess on the faster hard courts of Melbourne is well documented, and in 2009 she reached the semifinal in all five of the hard court tournaments she participated in through until the start of the spring’s clay court season.

The 28-year-old made light work of Spain's Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez in the second round of last week’s Medibank Invitational in Sydney, and she crushed Vera Dushevina in one of the most clinical displays you will see on a court. She was pushed to the limit against Aravane Rezai on Thursday, but don’t worry too much about that.

Serena's 2009 ended with five straight wins at the end-of-season Tour Championship and her 2010 has started with a trip to the finals in Sydney. Things are looking auspicious for Williams, and there is no reason to believe she won’t be in the finals here too.

There’s no reason to think Urszula Radwanska, ranked No. 71, will upset her, and it appears as though her first real test could come against No. 32 Carla Suarez Navarro in round three or Victoria Azarenka in the quarterfinals. Williams has only met Radwanska once, beating her in straight sets at the second round of Wimbledon two years ago.

 

No. 2 Dinara Safina

Last year’s finalist will be looking to go one better in 2010. With her No. 2 seeding, she is safe in the knowledge that any encounter with Serena Williams would be reserved solely for finals day.

While Safina will be playing in her eighth Australian Open, 2009 was the first time the Russian had any real success at the tournament. Between 2003 and 2008, Safina failed to make it past the third round, losing twice in the first round, including in 2008 when she disappointingly crashed out to Sabine Lisicki after finishing 2007 in the top 20 for the third consecutive season.

Safina has improved in each of the past four years and she will have her eye firmly on regaining the No. 1 spot she held for exactly half of 2009. While she won her 10th, 11th, and 12th Tour singles titles at Rome, Madrid, and Portoroz last year, Safina still has the monkey of never winning a Grand Slam on her back.

Safina has lost in the final of the Australian Open once and in back-to-back years at Roland Garros, so until she finds a way to produce on the biggest stages, she will have trouble holding on to any top spot for an extended period of time. Add to that the fact that her game is more suited to clay and you get the impression she may not break her duck here.

Safina struggled in her second round match in Sydney last week, dropping the first five games of the match to Agnieszka Radwanska before powering through the next seven on her way to a 7-5, 6-4 victory.

The victory against Radwanska—the highest unseeded player in the strong draw at No. 10 in the world—showed her fighting spirit, but she followed that up by offering little resistance to world No. 5 Elena Dementieva.

Safina will need to gain confidence from her early round matches in the first week of the tournament if she wants to have a solid chance of making an impact in week two. If she is a factor by the time the quarterfinals roll around, look for her to avenge the embarrassment of last year’s final.

She could have been given an easier draw than Slovakian No. 44 Magdalena Rybarikova in round one, although she will favour her potential third round match with Kateryna Bondarenko, who Safina has a 5-1 lifetime record against. Maria Sharapova could be a banana skin in the fourth round, but if injury hits Sharapova, Safina could be coasting to the quarterfinals without too many problems.

No. 3 Svetlana Kuznetsova

Kuznetsova has very rarely made the impact at the Australian Open that many thought she might have ever since winning her first Gland Slam at the US Open some five-and-a-half years ago.

She has failed to make it past the quarterfinals at the event, and in three of the last four years she has not advanced past the fourth round. The 24-year-old Russian had her chances in 2009, leading by a set and 5-3 before crumbling to eventual winner Serena Williams. She lost 10 of the final 11 games and will no doubt be looking to right the ship this time around.

Her preparations, much like last year, have not been perfect though. Remember that she had to pull out of Sydney last year ahead of her quarterfinal match against now-retired Ai Sugiyama with an abdominal strain.

This year she crashed out to Dominika Cibulkova in straight sets after an inability to win points on her second serve (4-of-25).

While a clay-courter by trade, Kuznetsova, with her sweet double-handed backhand, has shown she has the ability to win on the hard surfaces before, most notably at Flushing Meadows, but also in Beijing last October and as a semifinalist in Miami.

Her first round matchup will be a repeat of last year when she beat the adopted Aussie Anastasia Rodionova 6-2, 3-6, 6-3. Kuznetsova is 3-0 lifetime against Rodionova, so don’t expect it to be so close this time out.

No. 4 Caroline Wozniacki

The Danish teenager has improved each year on the tour and 2010 could be the season that Wozniacki makes her final major breakthrough by winning a major title.

She made it to the third round or better in each of the Grand Slams in 2009, culminating in becoming the first Dane to reach a Grand Slam final in the Open Era when she lost to Kim Clijsters at the U.S. Open.

Wozniacki had more main draw match victories than any other woman on the tour last year, so expect another strong showing from the 19-year-old.

Don’t read too much into her first round exit in Sydney against Na Li. She dominated the first set before the wheels started to come off later in the match. It all starts with the serve, and it was the serve that let her down against Li. It was her first match of the year after deciding not to compete in Brisbane, so put it down to rust.

Her first round opponent, Aleksandra Wozniak, is no stranger to her. They’ve met six times in the last 18 months, including four times since last summer. I watched them battle it out at Eastbourne last year and Wozniak was very solid until the Dane took over in the latter stages of the second set. The No. 34 shouldn’t pose too much of a problem, so expect to see Wozniacki in the second round.

No. 5 Elena Dementieva

Dementieva finished 2009 in the top five for the second consecutive year, but the talk will be about whether she can make the final leap and claim a Grand Slam title.

Her strong baseline game, powered by flat forehand strokes, coupled with her reluctance to approach the net, makes her game—in theory—particularly well suited to the hard court of Melbourne.

But all 14 of her tour singles titles have come in Premier or International tournaments, what was previously known as the old Tier I, II, III, and IV events. Of these, only one has been at a “Premier Five” tournament (Toronto), although she did make the final of Indian Wells several years ago when it was still a Tier I competition.

2009 may have been Dementieva’s best chance at Australian Open glory. She rode a 15-match winning streak into the semifinals of the tournament with impressive wins over Vesnina in the finals at Auckland as well as the top two seeds in Sydney, Serena Williams and Dinara Safina.

With a chance to be world No. 1 if she won the Australian Open, Dementieva fell short in her semifinal 6–3, 6–4 defeat to Serena Williams despite leading 3-0 in the second set.

Dementieva started slowly in the Hopman Cup at the start of 2010, losing to Sabine Lisicki in the round robin before winning her next two contests against Yaroslava Shvedova and British youngster Laura Robson.

Dementieva looked in good form last week in the run-up to the Slam, defeating Francesca Schiavone, Daniela Hantuchova, No. 2 Dinara Safina, and Victoria Azarenka at the Medibank International.

Her quarterfinal victory looked especially smooth against Safina, and she needed just 68 minutes against Azarenka to book her place in the final against Serena Williams. With a favorable draw, there is nothing to suggest that Dementieva won’t be heavily in the mix come the second week.

She has a tough road ahead of her, starting with compatriot Vera Dushevina. Dementieva never lost against Dushevina in three attempts, although Dementieva did have to come back from a set down at the 2008 French Open. More pressing is her likely second round match with wildcard Justine Henin or third round encounter with Jelena Dokic.

Dementieva is 2-9 lifetime against Henin, although they have only played three times since 2006. (Henin leads 2-1)

No. 6 Venus Williams

While Venus has won three doubles titles at the Australian Open, she has yet to see her name engraved on the singles trophy.

Although the big-serving older sister prefers the grass of Wimbledon, make no mistake that her abilities transfer well to any surface. Her ground strokes can blast most women off the court and her serve is a weapon that is as dangerous on the hard courts of the Australian and U.S. Open as anywhere else.

The 29-year-old was the only top-10 ranked player to miss the Medibank Open in Sydney, so it remains to be seen how she will come out of the blocks in her opening contests.

Remember that in 2009, Williams passed up on the chance to get some sets under her belt and lost at the Australian Open to Carla Suarez Navarro 2-6, 6-3, 7-5 in the second round, having led 5-2 in the third set and missed match points at 5-4.

If Williams gets in to her stride early, there is nothing to say she won’t still be in the draw by the time the fourth round comes to a close. A first round match with Lucie Safarova will be no walk in the park though. The last two times they met, the No. 41 pushed Venus to three sets. Anabel Medina Garrigues likely awaits in round three, with a potential clash with No. 10 seed Agnieszka Radwanska in the fourth.

Williams embarrassed Radwanska in the quarterfinals of Wimbledon last year, and may have the chance to repeat what Serena does against Agnieszka’s sister Urszula in round one.

No. 7 Victoria Azarenka

Twenty-year-old Azarenka could make some serious noise in the tournament this year.

She finished 2009 inside the top-10 for the first time, and her No. 7 ranking is well deserved, especially considering how quickly she is improving on the hard surfaces.

Last year, she won her first three singles titles, all on hard courts, including Brisbane, Memphis, and Miami, where she claimed her first scalp over a reigning No. 1 player by defeating Serena Williams.

She reached the fourth round in last year’s Australian Open as the No. 13 seed, but she was forced to retire with illness and dizziness down a set and a break to Serena.

Azarenka is also a competent doubles player, having won mixed doubles titles at Roland Garros (2008) and the U.S. Open (2007). She has a nice touch around the net and above-average court coverage. Her backhand is one of the best on the tour, although she will need pinpoint control on a less-than-dominating first serve if she is to really challenge the biggest stars in the game.

The noisy Belarusian was pushed the distance in her first three matches in Sydney this week, beating Sabine Lisicki, Kimikio Date Krumm, and Dominika Cibulkova. While she is seeing a lot of time on court to put the finishing touches to her preparation, I’m sure she would have preferred not to have played so much tennis is such a short period of time. If fatigue is an issue in Melbourne, the seven hours of action at the Medibank International is the reason why.

She defeated all four of the current top seeds at some point last season, so don’t be fooled if you know little about her. You’ll hear her coming, and she could be a dangerous proposition for anyone.

She faces Frenchwoman Stephanie Cohen-Aloro in round one, likely Melinda Czink in the second, and possibly Vera Zvonareva, who she has never taken a set off in four attempts, in the fourth round.

No. 8 Jelena Jankovic

The former world No. 1 failed to build on a successful 2008 last season, but she has all the tools to cause problems in Melbourne.

Her footwork and defensive tenacity keep her in more points than seems logical, and her stamina serves her well, not only in longer matches, but in the two-week Grand Slam events too. She can mix-and-match her game to adapt to opponents and she can nail her double-handed backhand from anywhere on the court.

Her serve has been criticized in the past as being a big chink in her game, and it was less than stellar against world No. 40 Agnes Szavay in Sydney this week. Jankovic only won 50 percent of the points on her first serve and she was broken 10 times by a player who has seen a drop in fortune since being ranked as high as 13th just 20 months ago.

Jankovic has seen a reasonable amount of success at the Australian Open over the last three years, reaching the fourth round twice and losing in the semifinals in 2008. She may not be the dominant threat she was in 2007 and 2008, but she is still capable of knocking off anybody on the tour.

Jankovic is in a pretty nice section of the draw which includes two qualifiers and just one seed inside the top 16. She faces the easy prospect of No. 102 Monica Niculescu of Romania in round one, and possibly Ukranian Alona Bondarenko in the third, who Jankovic has defeated nine times since 2006.

No. 9 Vera Zvonareva

Zvonareva reached her first Grand Slam semifinal at Melbourne Park last year and she will be looking to climb back towards the No. 5 position she held just last February.

With her ankle injury apparently not behind her, it remains to be seen just how far a healthy Zvonareva can go. If she is fit in time for the Australian Open, the next question is how long it takes before her mental fragility kicks in. Her temperament has cost her before, but if she keeps her emotions in check, her flat backhand and counterpunching style of play could see her progress to the second week of the competition.

Zvonareva was always a doubt heading into Sydney this week after reaggravating her oft-injured ankle against Ayumi Morita in the Hong Kong Tennis Classic at the start of the year.

Thirty-nine minutes into her first round match at the Medibank International and the answer was clear. She had to retire at 3-3 against compatriot Elena Vesnina, putting Zvonareva's Australian Open participation in doubt.

When her game is on, she can be very good—especially on hard surfaces. Look no further than her 7-6(5), 6-2 victory over Ana Ivanovic at the Indian Wells final last year to know what I mean.

She will meet 109-ranked teenager Kristina Kucova in round one, who she has never met before. Should injury strike, it will provide a big boost to the other players in her section, specifically Ana Ivanovic and Victoria Azarenka.

No. 10 Agnieszka Radwanska

Radwanska has yet to make the breakthrough into the world’s top five, but she has the tactical guile and all-surface game to cause the best players in the world problems.

Compared once to Martina Hingis, the 20-year-old Pole crafts well-worked points and has the ability to hit her inside-out forehand for winners.

After reaching the quarterfinals of the Australian Open as the No. 29 seed in 2008, Radwanska, seeded ninth last year, crashed out to No. 59 Kateryna Bondarenko in the first round.

Radwanska lost in last week’s Medibank International in the second round to No. 2 seed Dinara Safina. Radwanska took a 5-0 lead in the first set against the Russian before losing the next seven games in a row. With her confidence shattered, Safina wrapped up the match in one hour and 48 minutes, 7-5, 6-4, although there were a lot of positives to take from the defeat.

No. 72 Tatjana Malek is Radwanska's first opponent—they have met once before in Stockholm in 2007 where Radwanska won in straight sets 6-2, 6-1.

No. 11 Marion Bartoli

Bartoli produced one of the upsets of last year’s tournament when she knocked out No. 1 seed and pre-tournament favourite Jelena Jankovic 6-1, 6-4.

Bartoli is seeded five places higher this year and her unorthodox technique is likely to catch the eye of casual spectators. She hits both her forehand and backhand hard with two hands, and she likes taking the ball early before it reaches the peak of its bounce.

Bartoli did not compete in Brisbane, where she was the runner-up last January, or Auckland, and she also gave Sydney a miss in an attempt to be well-rested for the Australian Open. She hasn’t played competitively since last November after failing to make it through to Doha, so I think it’s safe to say she’s fresh.

She beat three different top 10 players in 2009, including world No. 6 Jelena Jankovic and then-No. 3 Venus Williams on the hard surface of Stanford in the run-up to the U.S. Open, so watch out for her.

The draw has not been unkind to her, so there is every chance of success. She has never lost to first round opponent Rossana De Los Rios (Ranked No. 97) and she has only dropped four games over their last two meetings. At last year’s U.S. Open, Bartoli destroyed her 6-1, 6-0.

She will potentially meet her first seed in the third round—Maria Jose martinez Sanchex, who she has only played twice.

No. 12 Flavia Pennetta

Pennetta had a breakthrough year in 2009, cracking the top 10 and finishing the year as No. 12. She went on a 15-match win streak during the summer hardcourt season, winning her seventh and eighth titles at Palermo and LA. She made the third round of the Australian Open and Wimbledon, and advanced to the last eight at the U.S. Open for the second straight year.

For Pennetta, 2010 started promising with a finals appearance as the No. 1 seed in Auckland, but a lackluster performance saw her lose in straight sets to Yanina Wickmayer. This week, she made the quarterfinals in Sydney before crumbling against Aravane Rezai 6-3, 6-0. Her first serve percentage was at just 49 percent and she won only 9-of-31 points (29 percent) on her second serve. It’s surprising the 60 minute match lasted as long it did.

Pennetta is the only top 16 seed never to make it past the third round at the Australian Open, and she has been handed an awful draw. While Anna Chakvetadze shouldn’t be too difficult for starters, No. 18 Virginie Razzano in round three isn’t the best draw. Then things really get difficult. Should she make it into round four, she will likely face one of either Elenba Dementieva, Justine Henin, Jelena Dokic, or Alisa Kleybanova. Ouch!

No. 13 Samantha Stosur

The highest-ranked Aussie in the draw, Stosur will be looking to improve on her breakthrough 2009 year which saw her vault into the top 20 and finish the season at No. 13 in the world.

As the No. 30 seed, she made it to the semifinals at Roland Garros, although she failed to make it past the third round here last year.

Stosur, making her 10th appearance at Melbourne Park, will be entering as a seed for just the second time after being seeded No. 24 three years ago.

She lost to No. 4 seed Elena Dementieva in 2009 but she will not have to face anyone in the world’s top eight until potentially the fourth round (Serena Williams). With the home crowd behind her, a run to the start of the second week is not impossible.

A disappointing first round exit to Flavia Pennetta in Sydney this week won’t do her confidence any good, but it’s amazing how far the roar of a jam-packed Rod Laver Arena will take you when you need it.

Stosur also has the benefit of being the highest-seeded player to draw a qualifier in round one. Sabine Lisicki in round three looks like her first real threat, although she had defeated her all four times they have met, all since 2008.

No. 14 Maria Sharapova

The fifth Russian inside the world’s top 16 was forced to withdraw from the Australian Open in 2009, prompting a drop outside the top 10 for the first time in more than four-and-half-years.

She missed hard court singles events in Paris, Dubai, Indian Wells, and Miami, and she was forced to pull out of events in the European clay court season (Rome and Madrid) because of ongoing shoulder problems.

After a quarterfinal exit at Roland Garros and a second round loss at Wimbledon, Sharapova made the semis at Los Angeles and the final in Toronto in the run-up to the U.S. Open, where she was ranked No. 29.

A win in Tokyo was a nice way to end her injury-plagued season, and finishing the season at No. 14 should be considered a success when you think that she fell outside the top 100 before winning 31-of-40 matches upon her return.

Sharapova, when healthy, can give anyone a run for their money, but I think a grueling two-week tournament in the heat of Melbourne will prove too much for the 22-year-old to handle.

She has not met first round opponent Maria Kirilenko since 2006, but there should be little doubt that Sharapova has the edge over the fellow 22-year-old Russian when fit. The glamour tie of the first round, indeed.

No. 15 Kim Clijsters

The former world No. 1, 15th-seeded Clijsters could possibly make serious waves in this year’s tournament. Fresh off her 2009 U.S. Open success and 2010 title last week in Brisbane, few people will be happy to see her in their quarter of the draw.

She is strong from the back of the court and her athletic ability gives her a great defensive base for when she needs to slide to reach difficult balls. The 2004 runner-up knows what it takes to reach the finals at Melbourne Park, so expect nothing less than the best when she takes center stage.

Wins over Tathiana Garbin, Alicia Molik, Lucie Safarova, Andrea Petkovic, and Justine Henin have left Clijsters in perfect position to make a good run here at the start of the new year.

With a new-found maturity to her game, why shouldn’t she be one of the favourites to triumph?

Clijsters will face a qualifier in round one, probably Tamarine Tanasugarn in round two, and Nadia Petrova in the third. If the draw pans out for her, a quarterfinal showdown with either Justine Henin or Elena Dementieva could be one of the matches of the fortnight.

No. 16 Na Li

Li had her first top-20 finish in 2009 and she will be rewarded with a top 16 rank in Melbourne.

The start of last year was unkind to the 27-year-old from China, as she had to withdraw from Brisbane, Sydney, and the Australian Open with a right knee injury.

She reached the quarterfinals at the U.S. Open for the first time but lost to eventual winner Kim Clijsters, and she made the finals of Monterrey and Birmingham. 2010 started on the wrong note for Li, as she lost in the first round of Auckland to Estonian Kaia Kanepi and second round of Sydney to Flavia Pennetta.

Li, currently ranked No. 17 in the world, would have been seeded one position lower, but No. 16 Yanina Wickmayer was forced to enter the tournament through qualifying after not receiving permission to enter the tournament until after the cut-off date.

Li will lock horns with virtually-unknown Marina Erakovic in the first round. She is ranked No. 252 in the world, so don’t expect to see anything but Li’s name in the second round where she will probably play Hungarian Agnes Szavay, who I think could upset the No. 16 seed.