NFL: Week 15 Picks by WhatIfSports.com

Each Tuesday morning, we will preview every NFL game in the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and links to our preseason preview, are located here.

The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers team and player ratings adjusted for strength of schedule, and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position. To see other picks like our Upset and Locks of the Week, as well as our season-to-date performance, click here.


Game of the Week: Bengals 20 @ Chargers 24

The Colts clinched a first-round bye back in September, it seems, and just last week locked up home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The other first-round bye is up for grabs in San Diego this weekend, as the Bengals visit the Chargers in a huge AFC showdown with major playoff implications.

With a win and a Denver loss, the Chargers win the AFC West; the Bengals can take the AFC North and control their playoff seed destiny with a win here.

With games against Kansas City and the Jets closing out the season, a win in San Diego could be crucial for the Bengals, especially coming off a loss in Minnesota.

We simulated the Chargers vs. Bengals 10,001 times to find the most likely winner; the Chargers won 57.2 percent of the time, by an average score of 23.5-19.5.

The Chargers will win with the help of Philip Rivers, who has yet to lose a December matchup in his NFL career.  In our simulations, Rivers threw for an average of 267 yards and 1.7 TDs per game. The running game will likely fall flat for the Chargers, but credit Mike Zimmer's stellar run defense for that. Tomlinson and Sproles combined for under 70 yards on average in our simulated faceoffs.

Meanwhile, the Bengals' three-headed running game will likely be used to their benefit. Cedric Benson, Bernard Scott, and Larry Johnson carried the ball a combined 28 times for 125 yards in our mock matchups. But the Bengals' passing game struggled, as it has for most of the season.

Click on the Boxscore below to the average results from 10,001 simulations of that game. Or click on Simulate Game to play the game once and view stats and play-by-play from that simulation.

NFL Week 15
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
Atlanta Falcons	13.2	12	Boxscore
@ New York Jets	86.8	27	Simulate Game
Oakland Raiders	14.5	12	Boxscore
@ Denver Broncos	85.5	26	Simulate Game
Chicago Bears	16.0	14	Boxscore
@ Baltimore Ravens	84.0	28	Simulate Game
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	30.5	16	Boxscore
@ Seattle Seahawks	69.5	24	Simulate Game
Miami Dolphins	33.8	17	Boxscore
@ Tennessee Titans	66.2	25	Simulate Game
Green Bay Packers	35.2	22	Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Steelers	64.8	28	Simulate Game
Dallas Cowboys	39.7	25	Boxscore
@ New Orleans Saints	60.3	30	Simulate Game
Cincinnati Bengals	42.8	19	Boxscore
@ San Diego Chargers	57.2	24	Simulate Game
San Francisco 49ers	49.0	19	Boxscore
@ Philadelphia Eagles	51.0	22	Simulate Game
Indianapolis Colts	53.2	23	Boxscore
@ Jacksonville Jaguars	46.8	22	Simulate Game
Minnesota Vikings	54.1	25	Boxscore
@ Carolina Panthers	45.9	24	Simulate Game
Cleveland Browns	54.8	22	Boxscore
@ Kansas City Chiefs	45.2	21	Simulate Game
Houston Texans	55.0	22	Boxscore
@ St. Louis Rams	45.0	21	Simulate Game
New York Giants	61.7	20	Boxscore
@ Washington Redskins	38.3	18	Simulate Game
New England Patriots	63.9	20	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bills	36.1	18	Simulate Game
Arizona Cardinals	67.3	24	Boxscore
@ Detroit Lions	32.7	21	Simulate Game

Other Notable Games in Week 15

The Colts and Saints both remain unbeaten 14 games into the season.  Our simulations have the Colts beating the on-the-playoff-bubble Jaguars in their Week 15 matchup by an extremely slim margin of 23.1-22.1.  Peyton Manning threw for an average of 250 yards and the Colts ran for 125 total yards, winning 53.2 percent of the simulated matchups.

The Saints handed the Cowboys their third straight December loss 60.3% of the time by an average score of 30.4-25.1.

We predict the Steelers will snap a five-game losing streak by beating the Green Bay Packers; the Steelers won 64.8 percent of our matchups. The Titans should stay alive in the AFC playoff picture, beating the Dolphins 66.2 percent of the time in simulation.

Other Notable Names in Week 15

In Baltimore, Ray Rice and Joe Flacco look to put up huge numbers against the Bears. Rice had 94 yards rushing (0.9 TD) and 36 yards receiving while Flacco threw for almost 235 yards in our matchups. These promising performances vault both into our top 12 of our Fantasy Football Projections for Week 15.

Joshua Cribbs helped the Browns win their second straight game, running for 77 yards and posting 17 receiving yards on average (0.7 and 0.1 TDs respectively). Cribbs is our top ranked WR (based mostly on his rushing stats) and 29th overall.

WhatIfSports.com is a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in fantasy football simulation analysis and football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, we can be reached at [e-mail]. Thanks!