NHL Power Rankings: B/R Experts' Week 16 Poll
As January draws to a close, the stage has been set for exciting races in every division that involve nearly every NHL team.
In the East, all 16 teams are within five points of a playoff spot, and the teams at the bottom all have reason for hope. The Tampa Bay Lightning and Buffalo Sabres have been battered by injuries, but with good health and a little internal growth from young players, they could be better down the stretch. The New York Islanders also have a young roster, and this week turned to Doug Weight in the hopes a new coach could turn things around.
In the West, there are a couple of finished teams, but 12 of the 14 clubs are within four points of the postseason. For those dozen teams, playoff hopes still drive things.
At the top of the league, five teams are withing three points of first place. The list includes the red-hot Washington Capitals, a team that has collected 23 of a possible 24 points over its last 12 games. The surprising Columbus Blue Jackets, expansion cousins the Minnesota Wild, the defending champion Pittsburgh Penguins and the reliable Blackhawks are all still in the hunt too.
To break everything down, we've turned to our panel once again. Adrian Dater, Steve Macfarlane, Allan Mitchell, Lyle Richardson, Carol Schram and yours truly ranked the league's 30 teams, with the combined results going into this list.
Read on to see where your team stands against the ever-shifting NHL landscape.
30-26: Colorado Avalanche-Detroit Red Wings
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30. Colorado Avalanche (last week: 30)
It’s hard to believe now, but 18 games into the season, the Colorado Avalanche were a .500 team after going on the road and knocking off the Minnesota Wild and Columbus Blue Jackets—two of this season’s best teams—in succession. The Avs are 4-20-2 in the 26 games since. They haven’t won in regulation since December 11, when Semyon Varlamov stopped 51 of the 52 shots he saw in a game against the Toronto Maple Leafs.
29. Arizona Coyotes (last week: 29)
The bottom tier of the NHL is two teams, the Arizona Coyotes and the Avs. The difference is that Arizona occasionally gets goaltending, as it did in Saturday’s win over Tampa Bay. Mike Smith made 45 saves, almost twice as many as the Ben Bishop-Andrei Vasilevskiy tandem did at the other end of the rink. The club is only 3-12-1 in its last 16 games, but that’s good enough not to be the worst team in the league.
28. Dallas Stars (last week: 21)
The Dallas Stars have problems, problems they’re only occasionally able to outscore. In their three January wins, the Stars’ average score has been 6-4. In their seven January losses, the average score has been 4-2 the other way. The consistent item in all this is the team’s inability to thwart goals against. The .900 save percentage mark remains an ongoing struggle for Antti Niemi (.902) and Kari Lehtonen (.899) behind a green Dallas defence.
27. Tampa Bay Lightning (last week: 22)
The Lightning are not the team of the last few years or even the team of the first 20 games of this season. After starting the year 12-7-1, the club has posted a miserable 9-15-4 record. The six-game road trip the Bolts are on would have been a test for even a good team, so it isn’t a big surprise to see Tampa Bay stuck at a 1-2-1 record four games in. Goaltender Vasilevskiy has been particularly bad of late; he’s 0-6-0 with a .877 save percentage in January.
26. Detroit Red Wings (last week: 27)
The Detroit Red Wings' results in January have been dramatically different depending on where the Red Wings played. So far, they’ve gone 1-3-3 over seven road games and 3-0-1 over four home games. This is marked shift from the first months of the season, when Detroit had a solid away record and terrible numbers at Joe Louis Arena. It’s also a healthy reminder that sometimes a weird home/road split doesn’t mean a thing.
25-21: Buffalo Sabres-New York Islanders
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25. Buffalo Sabres (last week: 28)
The Buffalo Sabres aren’t making a lot of headway in the standings, but they’re doggedly refusing to fall. A month ago, the team was 12-12-8, and it has won seven of 13 games since then. This is despite a nasty run of injuries that left the team dressing five right-shot defencemen in Saturday’s win over the Montreal Canadiens—with the lone lefty, Justin Falk, playing just 12:47 on the night. Pending free agent Cody Franson scored a goal in that game and has taken advantage of the opportunity to reassert himself as a top-four defenceman.
24. Winnipeg Jets (last week: 24)
Ondrej Pavelec has played two games since being recalled from his AHL exile, and he has recorded two wins, making 30-plus saves in both outings. Those victories ended a four-game losing streak for the Winnipeg Jets, bringing them close to the playoff cut line—though by points percentage, they’re still well back of the pack. A victory over the Anaheim Ducks on Monday would give the Jets their longest winning streak of the year. This is the ninth time they’ve won two in a row, but they have yet to win three straight.
23. New Jersey Devils (last week: 25)
The New Jersey Devils have been on a bit of a roll lately, winning four of their last five games, including a road win against the Minnesota Wild on Tuesday. A return to form from two of last season’s standouts has helped drive the recent success. Goaltender Cory Schneider has a 4-2-2 record and .936 save percentage in January after falling below .900 in both November and December. Kyle Palmieri, meanwhile, has seven goals in his last 15 games after scoring just four in his first 30.
22. Florida Panthers (last week: 18)
The Florida Panthers' gains of last week (when the team went 3-1-0) were erased during a three-games-in-four-nights stretch in Western Canada. The Panthers dropped regulation decisions to the Calgary Flames and Vancouver Canucks and picked up a point in an overtime loss to the Edmonton Oilers. The loss to the Canucks kicked off a long idle stretch that sees the team play just four games in 19 days.
21. New York Islanders (last week: 26)
The Islanders dismissed longtime head coach Jack Capuano on Tuesday, replacing him behind the bench with former NHLer and team executive Weight. The firing came on the heels of a 4-0 win over the Boston Bruins and was followed by victories over Dallas and the Los Angeles Kings. New York failed to hold a 2-0 lead on the Philadelphia Flyers Sunday, falling in overtime, but a 2-0-1 run under the new guy is a pretty decent start.
20-16: Philadelphia Flyers-Los Angeles Kings
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20. Philadelphia Flyers (last week: 19)
Things went sour for the Flyers shortly before Christmas, and there’s still precious little sign of recovery. After a five-day break this week, Philadelphia lost to New Jersey on Saturday and fell behind to the Islanders 2-0 before rallying on Sunday. That drops the team to 3-9-3 over its last 15 contests, a run that has virtually erased the gains made during the club’s 10-game winning streak. Claude Giroux has just a single goal over those 15 games, and his line has only scored on four of the 108 shots it has taken at five-on-five.
19. Carolina Hurricanes (last week: 13)
The red-hot Carolina Hurricanes entered the week facing a real test: four straight games against Columbus, Pittsburgh and Washington. Three games into that test, they’ve lost three times, including a 7-1 debacle against the Penguins, during which they surrendered 41 shots. After Monday’s contest in Washington, seven of the Canes next 10 games will come at home, and the caliber of opposition will decline considerably. They’ll need to take advantage of that stretch if they are to win a wild-card slot in the East.
18. Vancouver Canucks (last week: 23)
The Canucks have been an interesting team post-Christmas. A six-game winning streak after the holiday break was followed by four straight losses—but with Vancouver picking up three points in those defeats. This week the team won two of three games, and the Canucks are in a vicious dogfight with Calgary, Los Angeles and the St. Louis Blues for the final two wild-card spots in the West. Their minus-19 goal differential suggests that the standings flatter their performance, but that won’t matter if they can keep picking up points over their 34 remaining contests.
17. Calgary Flames (last week: 16)
After climbing back into the thick of the playoff race with a six-game winning streak, the Flames have spent the last two months watching their gains slowly erode. The team’s 8-9-1 record since that run wasn’t bad enough to kill its playoff hopes outright, but it has made an optimistic situation much gloomier. A 7-3 loss to provincial rival Edmonton on Saturday was Calgary’s fourth defeat in five games. The immediate future doesn’t look much brighter, with the Flames on the road for 11 of their next 14 contests.
16. Los Angeles Kings (last week: 14)
One wants to like the Kings. The team is doing its usual thing of dominating the shot clock and has the best Fenwick rating in the Western Conference. Unfortunately, finishing ability is not a strength, and that, combined with a backup goaltender whose nickname could be Automatic Loss, has L.A. in tough for a playoff berth. This week was particularly disappointing in that Los Angeles faced two beatable foes and a divisional rival but collected zero points.
15-11: St. Louis Blues-Toronto Maple Leafs
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15. St. Louis Blues (last week: 15)
There isn’t anything wrong with the St. Louis Blues that a goaltender couldn’t fix, and on Saturday, the club turned to farmhand Pheonix Copley to try to stop the bleeding in net. Five goals and one loss later, he doesn’t look like any more of a solution than sub-.900 save percentage goalies Jake Allen and Carter Hutton. On a positive note for Copley: five goals was the fewest the Blues surrendered in a game this week, with the team having previously allowed six against the Ottawa Senators and seven versus Washington.
14. Boston Bruins (last week: 10)
The Bruins are absolutely maddening. Boston has fired 30-plus shots in 10 straight games while only surrendering more than 30 once in its last dozen contests. An awful power play has hurt, but the real problem is that the team has the second-worst shooting percentage in hockey and also has just a single win all season recorded with anyone other than Tuukka Rask in net. Rask left Sunday’s loss to Pittsburgh early, and the team has to hope he’ll be able to play again soon. Zane McIntyre didn’t inspire confidence even before allowing three goals on 14 shots.
13. Ottawa Senators (last week: 17)
A five-day break at the start of January has coincided with a change in fortunes for the Senators. Ottawa fell in a thrilling 7-6 overtime decision to the Blue Jackets on Sunday but still finished the week 3-0-1 and is 5-2-1 since coming off a hiatus. Mike Hoffman scored twice in the loss to Columbus, continuing his recent tear; he has seven goals in his last seven games.
12. Nashville Predators (last week: 20)
The Nashville Predators have been an enigmatic club this season, one with exalted expectations and erratic performances. They do seem to have turned a corner, though. Sunday’s win over Central Division-leading Minnesota was Nashville’s sixth win in seven games, a spell that has seen the team climb from outside the postseason to a perch just above the wild-card race.
Injuries have been part of the problem, and it’s hard to overstate how critical healthy defenceman Ryan Ellis has been in keeping the club afloat. He picked up primary assists on two goals Sunday, including the winner, and he has five points in his last three games.
11. Toronto Maple Leafs (last week: 12)
A 1-1-1 stretch isn’t exactly what the doctor ordered for a team on the playoff bubble in the East, but given that the Leafs had won three of four leading up to it and still have games in hand, we can cut them a little slack. This is particularly true since the team didn’t have linchpin defender Morgan Rielly for the two losses, which is probably part of the reason Martin Marincin logged more than 21 minutes in his first game in more than a month. Winger James van Riemsdyk has been doing his part, at least, with a total of 14 points over a scoring streak that runs 14 games.
10. Anaheim Ducks
5 of 14
Record: 26-14-9, 61 points
Last week: 6
Big Picture
The Anaheim Ducks had three winnable home games over the last eight days, plus a toughie against the Wild. Though they came out of that stretch with a 2-1-1 record, it is hard not to feel they underperformed—losing to St. Louis and only squeaking past the injury-riddled Lightning and miserable Avalanche. Nevertheless, points are what matter, and the Ducks collected just enough to scratch out a one-point lead on the San Jose Sharks and Edmonton Oilers for first in the Pacific.
By the Numbers
Corey Perry led the league in goals in 2010-11, scoring 50 with a career-best 17.2 shooting percentage. He has just nine through 49 games this season, which if it holds, would be the worst goals-per-game ratio of his career, even including his rookie campaign. The biggest reason is shooting percentage. At 6.6, it's half his career average. He’s getting his shots, but they just aren’t finding the back of the net.
9. Edmonton Oilers
6 of 14
Record: 26-15-8, 60 points
Last week: 9
Big Picture
We just looked at the Ducks, and Edmonton’s record is identical save for a substitution of a single regulation loss for an overtime loss. That puts the Oilers one point behind Anaheim, though the club has certainly done its best to gain ground lately, with a 5-0-1 record over its last six contests.
By the Numbers
Edmonton has been making hay even as its big summer free-agent addition fights through a long slump. Milan Lucic scored a goal on Friday, ending a 12-game drought. He’s still looking to pick up the scoring at even strength, though. Friday’s power-play marker did not end a 21-game run without an even-strength goal, and he only has two even-strength helpers over that stretch.
8. Montreal Canadiens
7 of 14
Record: 28-13-7, 63 points
Last week: 4
Big Picture
It’s going to be a while before the Canadiens have anything to worry about; the club still boasts an eight-point lead on Ottawa in the Atlantic Division. The team has slipped a little bit of late, though, with star goaltender Carey Price going through an uncertain stretch. Montreal’s franchise netminder has lost eight of his last 11 starts, recording an ugly .887 save percentage in during this span.
By the Numbers
The Habs have been getting good production from some unlikely sources lately. Artturi Lehkonen and Phillip Danault scored both of the team’s goals against Buffalo on Saturday. Lehkonen now has 11 goals as a rookie, within five of his total in Sweden last year. Danault’s 10th of the season is more than double what he managed last year and is within three of his career-high number, set in the AHL in 2014-15.
7. New York Rangers
8 of 14
Record: 30-16-1, 61 points
Last week: 8
Big Picture
Despite winning two of three games this week, the New York Rangers remain stuck in fourth place in the Metropolitan, with a seven-point gap separating them from first. A wild-card slot seems likely, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing; the odds are good that whichever team finishes fourth in the Met will get to swing over to the weaker Atlantic Division for the playoffs.
By the Numbers
Mika Zibanejad returned this week after a lengthy stint on injured reserve and had an immediate impact. In his first game since November, he fired seven shots and scored two goals in just over 18 minutes of ice time against Dallas.
6. Chicago Blackhawks
9 of 14
Record: 30-14-5, 65 points
Last week: 7
Big Picture
The Chicago Blackhawks went three-for-three in their games last week, closing to a tie with the Wild atop the Central Division. Minnesota has three games in hand and won a recent meeting between the two clubs, so Chicago must be regarded as an underdog for the top spot. With a 12-point lead on the third-place Predators, there isn’t much fear of slipping lower.
By the Numbers
There isn’t likely to be an outright goaltending battle, but the Blackhawks may want to send a few more starts in the direction of Scott Darling. The nominal backup has a 12-4-2 record and .928 save percentage on the season. Starter Corey Crawford, meanwhile, has had some struggles in January, going 4-3-0 with a .886 average.
5. San Jose Sharks
10 of 14
Record: 29-16-2, 60 points
Last week: 11
Big Picture
Four straight wins have restored the San Jose Sharks to their rightful place inside the top 10 after a couple of mediocre weeks. By points percentage and goal differential, they’re the best team in the Pacific Division, though the standings are tight enough that they can’t afford Edmonton or Anaheim any advantage the rest of the way. Thursday’s game against the Oilers is likely to be San Jose’s most important individual contest between now and mid-March.
By the Numbers
It’s starting to look like Joel Ward might be back. After a tough start to the year the versatile veteran winger has eight points in his last nine games—after recording only 10 points in his first 36 contests. Head coach Peter DeBoer slashed Ward’s ice time down to under 15 minutes per game in December but has added a full minute of responsibility to Ward’s workload in January.
4. Columbus Blue Jackets
11 of 14
Record: 32-10-4, 68 points
Last week: 3
Big Picture
The Jackets were momentarily becalmed in the aftermath of their franchise-record winning streak but appear to have wind in their sails again after winning three times in four tries this week. They are tied with Washington for first in the Met, with a three-point lead on the third-place Penguins. Winning the division matters a ton, mostly because it allows the victor to dodge what is sure to be a brutal first-round series between whichever clubs finish second and third.
By the Numbers
Scott Harrington picked up the first goal of his NHL career in a wild 7-6 win over Ottawa on Sunday. The 2011 second-round pick, who twice represented Canada at the World Juniors, is with his third NHL organization. Sunday’s game was his 31st in the big leagues, but it isn’t a surprise that a defensive defenceman playing third-pairing minutes took a while to score.
3. Pittsburgh Penguins
12 of 14
Record: 30-11-5, 65 points
Last week: 5
Big Picture
Pittsburgh picked up its fourth consecutive win on Sunday, scoring its 24th goal in that run in the process. The Pens have nearly two wins for every loss on the season but still find themselves three points back of the lead in the ridiculous Metropolitan Division.
By the Numbers
Sidney Crosby picked up three points in Sunday’s win while Evgeni Malkin recorded two. They have 32 and 33 points respectively in the 23 games they have played since December 1. Each has 54 points and sits two back of Edmonton’s Connor McDavid for the NHL lead, though both have superior points-per-game ratios.
2. Minnesota Wild
13 of 14
Record: 30-11-5, 65 points
Last week: 2
Big Picture
Minnesota missed an opportunity to take sole possession of first in their division in Sunday’s loss to Nashville, but with three games on hand over the Blackhawks, the team is still the favourite to win the Central. The Wild’s plus-46 goal differential is three times as good as Chicago's.
By the Numbers
By goal differential, the Wild are the NHL’s second-best team at five-on-five despite ranking 22nd by shot differential. It’s all about the percentages. Minnesota scores on 10 percent of its five-on-five shots (third in the NHL), while its opponents score on just six percent of theirs (also third in the NHL). The team’s combined shooting percentage and save percentage, commonly referred to as PDO, is 103.6 which will be the best performance of any team by that metric in the analytics era if it holds.
1. Washington Capitals
14 of 14
Record: 31-9-6, 68 points
Last week: 1
Big Picture
The Caps are 11-0-1 in their last 12 games yet only find themselves tied for first in the Met. That’s been a common theme for weeks at the top end of these power rankings. The NHL’s three best teams by points this season all play in one division, and it’s conceivable that there will be no performance gap between the club that wins the Presidents' Trophy and one that starts the playoffs without home-ice advantage.
By the Numbers
Minnesota’s PDO was a topic of the last slide, so it’s only fair to mention the situation in Washington. The Capitals have better shot metrics than the Wild and play in a tougher division, but they are getting just as big a boost from the percentages. Washington ranks first in the NHL by both five-on-five shooting percentage and save percentage, and their combined total of 104.1 will be unprecedented if it holds.
Statistics used here courtesy of Hockey-Reference.com, Corsica.Hockey, Stats.HockeyAnalysis.com, Puck On Net and the NHL.
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