Predicting the Top 10 Men's Tennis Players at the End of 2017

With Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal returning to the 2017 ATP tour, Australia takes center stage in January. It will be a competitive and transitional period beginning with the Novak Djokovic-Andy Murray rivalry and sprinkling in veteran star contenders.

Above all, 2017 could very well see the breakthroughs from talented young stars who know that the aging Big Four legends are more vulnerable. The men's tour will be a very different landscape in another year.

The following is the first time we attempt a preseason forecast for which players will compose the top 10 after a full year from Melbourne to London. There will no doubt be unforeseen injuries, upsets and plot twists in big tournaments, but we will try to project the stories and results to rank the best players of 2017.

Missing the Top 10

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There are several top-10 talents who could remain or get there if they play up to their potential. But for one reason or another, we’re going to list the following as on the outside looking in:

Stan Wawrinka: The Swiss has one major title for each of the past three years and usually finds the No. 4 ranking to his liking. But he’s also erratic and aging, and with new rising stars the field will be deeper. It makes for more difficult draws for Wawrinka, who does not have Murray’s consistency. By autumn, and if he does not defend his U.S. Open title, he could miss the top-10 cut entirely.

Marin Cilic: I like Cilic’s talent and athleticism, but I also wonder if collapsing three times in important five-set matches since Wimbledon won’t take its toll the next times he’s in big matches. He should be better in more important tournaments, the proof being championships at the 2014 U.S. Open and 2016 Cincinnati Masters, but he has not been able to string together more performances like those.

Dominic Thiem: Another strong, rising player who is a force on clay and first-timer at the World Tour Finals. He faded from too many matches in the second half of 2016, and he will need to pace himself better and break through opportunistic matches against the biggest stars.

Gael Monfils: After a career year and improved patience, the Frenchman will find it hard to match or improve on this in 2017. His history has been mottled with injuries and uneven play.

Tomas Berdych: Long a top-10 fixture, Berdych had his moments in 2016 but like David Ferrer is a better bet to fade rather than rise. A lot of wear and tear and still difficulties in big matches.

David Goffin, Lucas Pouille, Grigor Dimitrov: All contenders for the top 10 for sure. Goffin just doesn’t have the big weapons, Pouille might be another couple of years away and Dimitrov’s flash needs to come together week by week with improved commitment.

10. Juan Martin Del Potro

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Maybe Juan Martin del Potro’s spirited comeback in 2016 has already peaked. Just as the giant Argentine warrior became a Grand Slam contender with victories over Djokovic, Murray, Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori, the warning light is already on with his troubled left wrist.

Del Potro announced this week that he will not play in the Australian Open. “What I need is to have someone get me physically fit enough to last the whole year,” Del Potro said in Sky Sports.

And that’s the worry about his chances to win a major and compete in enough big tournaments to be a top-10 player. He could very well strike for a couple of huge results, as he did in defeating Federer for the 2009 U.S. Open, but it’s more likely he will be sidelined or pace himself from time to time.

But the best of Del Potro for 10 to 12 big tournaments scattered through the year could lead to a Masters 1000 title or another U.S. Open title. He could get into the top five or fail to get enough quality matches to crack the top 20. We’re going to project a top-10 ranking with a few memorable tournament runs.

Look for his best chances at Indian Wells, Miami, Canada, Cincinnati and the U.S. Open. He’s had clay-court success in the past, but he is less likely to grind as well with the physical issues. He might be shut down late in the year, but if he’s still healthy for Paris it’s a great sign that he could make it to the World Tour Finals.

9. Borna Coric

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One of the most intriguing teenage talents fell back a bit in 2016, but not without his share of highlights. Croatia’s Borna Coric will be great; it’s just a matter of when. He’s got those intangibles, that edgy presence and swagger to be a superstar. He’s highly confident but not brash. He understands pressure and he loves to perform on the big stage, vanquishing the likes of Nadal and Murray before he turned 20.

"First of all obviously I think I'm very good," Coric said in a 2015 CNN profile by Chris Murphy and Ursin Caderas. "I think everyone's goal is to be No. 1 in the world. I think that's normal. I am very far away (so) I need to work so much harder. I need to work very hard just to get there, but that's my goal.”

Coric has a well-balanced attack led by his strong backhand and determination to hold the the inside of the baseline. Now it’s a matter of putting all that talent and fight together, to surge forward with a couple of big tournament results and to back it up from week to week.

Too early? Actually, Coric has already paid his dues from big wins, disappointing upsets, Davis Cup heroics and recent knee surgery that has him plenty rested to conquer the ATP tour in 2017.

He’s going to flourish on slow hard courts and clay, so a strong spring could launch him toward the top 20 from his current No. 48.

Coric has talent similar to Dominic Thiem, a little less power but greater consistency on both wings and a strong sense of ambition. By the end of 2017, he could be flexing his muscle and showing he will be the future star that some have predicted.

8. Roger Federer

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The most important thing for Federer is to get match play and be healthy. Then, he must peak for his summer priorities at Wimbledon, Cincinnati and the U.S. Open. The challenges will be his day-to-day recovery to be at his best. It’s not easy being one of the best players in the world at age 35.

I don’t bet against the Swiss Maestro, and by all accounts he’s excited and ready to compete. There’s no bigger winner in tennis, so even if he is more along the lines of how we last saw him at Wimbledon, he’s a likely semifinalist for most tournaments. That’s good enough for a top-10 ranking, if he gets in enough tournaments.

The ceiling on Federer is greater than where I’m ranking him. He could finish in the top three if he capitalizes on the fast surfaces and wins big matches. He might not have 2015 Djokovic to block his path, so there’s a chance he could win Wimbledon.

The worst scenario would be a repeat of 2016, fighting knee and back injuries. If so, he might slip out of the top 20 altogether.

Federer fans will also need to be patient. There’s a good chance he doesn’t match his 2016 semifinal showing at the Australian Open. If he only makes it to the fourth round, he would drop 540 points and fall to somewhere around the No. 24 ranking. He will then need time and results to get through tougher opening rounds at tournaments and rebuild his ranking.

7. Rafael Nadal

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Next up is the other half of Fedal. It’s no longer news to report that the Spaniard must battle through recent injuries and setbacks, but of course he’s an “old” 30-year-old warrior with more chapters and verses than The Iliad.

What we can expect is fresh legs for springtime tennis on clay. That’s where he will rack up points and what represents his best chances at big titles. Most of all, he’s still one of the top contenders to win the French Open as he showed last year, even with the left wrist injury that became too much to play through after sweeping his first two matches.

New coach and friend Carlos Moya should give him added enthusiasm and possibly shore up some of the encroaching weaknesses in his game. If Moya can help Nadal attack better with his serve and forehand, perhaps his defensive retrievals will be enough even if it’s no longer 2008.

I like Nadal’s chances to take Monte Carlo, Barcelona and Madrid or Rome. I picked him to get to the French Open final. With that success, and even if his body falls apart in the summer and autumn, he should be a top-10 player and good enough to make it to London’s year-end feature.

But it’s hard to see Nadal winning hard-court tournaments in 2017, even though he looked good winning the Mubadala World Tennis Championship in Abu Dhabi in December with wins over Tomas Berdych, Milos Raonic and David Goffin. We'll project him at the No. 7 ranking.

6. Nick Kyrgios

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Enough already with embarrassing spectacles of the past. Nick Kyrgios has wasted his talent on more than a few occasions, the latest his tanking episode at Shanghai. That will be his label until he decides to work and grind like a true professional.

Kyrgios will prove his worth, at least at some very important tournaments in 2017. He can win a Masters 1000 title behind his awesome serve and special athleticism. At his best, he can create spectacular shots and obliterate a grinder on fast surfaces. And he likes to play big matches.

He’s our pick to win Wimbledon, and he’s going to be a major obstacle for the other top contenders.

The reality is that Kyrgios will not grow up all at once and be the perfect gentleman on court. He’s not going to be consistent like Murray, and he may have continued lapses in his self-directed training.

That said, watch him flash some greatness. Then time will tell if he can turn into a long-term superstar and produce a brilliant career.

5. Milos Raonic

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Although the 26-year-old Raonic is younger than Federer and Nadal, he has also been wracked by injuries multiple times in the past few years. He still managed an Australian Open semifinal, Wimbledon final and strong showing at the World Tour Finals in 2016, and he stands at a career-high No. 2 ranking.

It won’t be easy to stay there in 2017 unless he can win Wimbledon or a few other big titles.

Raonic might be the most likely player for this Grand Slam breakthrough. He’s got that huge serve, improved net play ,and he works hard with his groundstrokes and defense. His upside is still to come.

But there’s a lot of competition in the middle of the top 10, and a few younger players could get into the mix. It will be harder to hold off his pursuers even while the older veterans are unwilling to concede an inch.

He will probably be more consistent than the more talented Nick Kyrgios, but he still ranks far below Murray and Djokovic in being dependable to compete at the highest level on a week-to-week basis.

Raonic will need a couple of big performances in majors and Masters 1000 tournaments to stay inside the top five. Perhaps new coach Richard Krajicek can rub some of his 1996 Wimbledon magic on Raonic. He was Raonic before Raonic back in the 1990s when his big serve and fearless net attacks derailed Pete Sampras for the legend's only Wimbledon loss in eight tries from 1993-2000.

4. Alexander Zverev

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Granted, this is a lot to put on rising teenager Alexander Zverev, who just won his first title in September 2016. But the lanky German has all the tools to be a superstar, and he looks ready to fight for the top trophies in tennis right now.

Zverev can play on any surface, and a strong Australian Open and early spring could see him move up the charts rapidly from his No. 24 ranking. He’s got energy, big groundstrokes and serve and has already shown he can compete with stars like Nadal and Wawrinka.

He has a cool head and won’t get overwhelmed by the moments ahead. He’s got terrific upbringing, including elder brother and ATP veteran Mischa, so he understands the commitment and life on tour.

Zverev will soon establish some big rivalries, and it would be a tennis delight to see a few big faceoffs against Djokovic. Zverev has the offense and firepower to make this a compelling link between current and future champions. He's already growing from diverse competition on tour, and he has the fire in his eyes to take that step sooner than later.

There could be a couple of Masters 1000 titles and enough growth to win the U.S. Open. He would probably need that competition if he is to live up to a possible bid for the top five. And while No. 4 seems absurdly high for 2017, he’s got a chance to get there if he puts it all together.

3. Kei Nishikori

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While Djokovic, Murray and a healthy Nadal are the obvious favorites to win the French Open, Kei Nishikori has a few advantages that could see him lift the Musketeers Cup near the Eiffel Tower.

He’s got speedy, younger legs. He will play with fewer expectations. He’s defeated the best players in big matches, and there’s no reason he can’t put it all together with quick-strike groundstrokes and as much grinding as it takes.

It would be a noteworthy upset, but I think Nishikori will win the French Open. I like his consistency, composure, professionalism and talents. He's ready for the big one.

He’s also very good on hard courts, and even a fast surface like the U.S. Open allows him to redirect his opponents' shots with extra power and pressure. Nishikori could win five or six titles and challenge for the top three spots in the rankings.

The next couple of years could be his peak. He’s experienced and has the vigor and recovery powers necessary to compete all year, if he can avoid some of the nagging injuries of the past. But he’s been stronger lately and should be a force in 2017.

2. Andy Murray

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The world No. 1 could win a major or two in 2017, but it could also get crowded at the top. Murray will probably be Murray, which means a lot of competitive grinding and more honest efforts than anyone on the planet. Will it be enough to stay at the top and get his fourth career major?

He’s got great momentum since his reunion with coach Ivan Lendl last June, and he took advantage of the half-year window when Djokovic played subpar tennis. He’s also become an excellent clay-court contender, and his range of winning from slow to fast courts has only been surpassed by Djokovic in recent years.

Murray also has done a lot of extra grinding, from Davis Cup heroism in 2015 to the Olympics and a torrid autumn in 2016. It won’t be easy to stay at this level, and other players are getting better.

The Australian Open will set the tone. It’s his best chance to knock off past disappointments in Melbourne when Federer and Djokovic were usually too much. Win the title, and he should be able to lock up No. 1 for the next half-year.

But watch out for a hungry Djokovic and plenty of younger stars who could be in play for that one great match against the Scot. Murray will be 30 in May, so it’s not going to feel easier. He might not get that fourth major, even if he gets his expected handful of Masters 1000 titles.

1. Novak Djokovic

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This is not the end of the legendary version of Novak Djokovic. No way. The current king of tennis slipped after the French Open and Murray passed him at the top of the rankings, but the Serb will be ready for another epic 2017.

Two major titles in 2017? Four or five Masters 1000 titles? Djokovic is perhaps the best and most complete player of all time, and when he rolls he is very difficult to stop. We could be witnessing a renaissance along the lines of Nadal in 2013 or Federer in 2009, a proud superstar who is ready for another great splash with an autumn summer.

Top five most likely tournaments for Djokovic to win (besides all that he enters):

1. Australian Open
2. Indian Wells
3. Rome
4. French Open
5. Shanghai

Of course Djokovic could be the heavy favorite at Miami and a slight favorite at Monte Carlo or Madrid.

The other tournaments will be more competitive if Murray, Federer, Zverev, Raonic, Kyrgios and others are on top of their games. He would love to redeem his third-round debacle at Wimbledon in 2016 and finally win Cincinnati’s Western & Southern Open, the only Masters 1000 trophy he has not collected. And of course the World Tour Finals usually brings out his best.

A couple of things to look at in 2017: Will Djokovic lean more on longtime coach Marian Vajda after splitting with coach Boris Becker in December, or will he decide to go without another coach? Most importantly, is Djokovic willing to devote himself 100 percent to the grind and effort of the tour, sacrificing family time and other time off the court?

If Federer, Nadal and Murray all rise up, there’s nothing that will motivate Djokovic more than to surpass them once again and leave no doubt who is the best player for 2017.