Grading Rafael Nadal's 2016 Season and Looking Ahead to 2017

Three years ago, Rafael Nadal was the best tennis player in the world, but 2016 may as well be another career.

It’s too easy to say that the 30-year-old Nadal is only a shell of himself because of aging and injuries. The Spaniard has never been easy to solve, neither for his opponents nor for the millions who have watched his legendary career. There were many who backed him as the greatest player of all time, but these arguments have all but evaporated in the midst of swirling late-career adversity.

Which is why 2016 has revealed enigmatic highs and lows that cannot be easily written as either an obituary or an ensemble of hope for tennis’ Dark Knight.

It’s clear that Nadal cannot fight off his adversaries through relentless training and carefully plotted priorities. The forces that created him—relentless desire and nonpareil resilience—have left him mortally weakened. He once ruled the world on damaged knees, but in 2016, he was cruelly and ironically cut down by his own injured left wrist. His greatest weapon became his fatality.

Rising confidence and topspin briefly surfaced as echoes from the Dark Knight’s legacy. There were a few golden weeks, like winning Monte Carlo and Barcelona.

More often, he suffered brittle collapses, like the crushing at Cincinnati and fading at the U.S. Open. Eventually, he was forced back to his Batcave to reassess shattered ambition.

In the end, it was all too familiar, with the latest chapter in his decline listing him as more of a footnote as the No. 9 player in the world after missing the World Tour Finals.

Nadal's 2016 tennis season is the second of our weekly offseason superstar profiles that count down six contenders in men's tennis. For a look at last week’s profile on Roger Federer, you may review it here.

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Grade: C+

The Dark Knight was knocked flat on his back by super-rival Novak Djokovic in a 6-1, 6-2 beatdown in the Doha final that began 2016. He couldn’t pick himself up for the Australian Open, where he was kicked aside in the first round by Fernando Verdasco, a player he had famously outlasted seven years earlier.

There were no moral victories with semifinal showings in South America and Indian Wells; a first-round loss and retirement in Miami had him on the fast track from nowhere to his red-clay European stomping grounds.

Monte Carlo would prove to be his crown jewel in 2016. He knocked out Dominic Thiem, Stan Wawrinka, Andy Murray and Gael Monfils (half of the top year-end competitors at the World Tour Finals), showing that he could win grueling street fights with the patience and precision that had struck fear through Gotham City.

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Nadal conquered two-time defending champion Kei Nishikori at Barcelona, proving that he was the rightful ruler with his nine championships. He had peaked at something resembling his last great run in spring 2014, and he had a puncher’s chance at defeating Djokovic and winning the French Open.

Then he lost to Murray in Madrid and Djokovic in Rome. Eight losses in a row to the Serb might have left him with more than a few doubts, but it would turn out to be much worse. Madrid instigated the inflamed tendon in his left wrist, and Rome exacerbated it.

The Dark Knight won two convincing matches at Roland Garros, but he was wounded beyond repair. He shockingly withdrew from his most fabled tournament because he could no longer conjure up his deadly topspin without pain. Maybe the biggest surprise was that something like this had not happened years before with all the angry torquing that wrist had endured.

He missed Wimbledon, came back for a triumphant doubles gold medal with Marc Lopez at the Olympics and narrowly lost in the singles semifinals to the resurgent Juan Martin del Potro. Quite a story for a mini return that would pretty much spell the end of 2016.

Nadal would no longer don his dark cave, but instead limped along with a pedestrian 6-4 record in North America and China. In mid-October at Shanghai, following a loss to Viktor Troicki, he packed up his equipment bag and announced he would not be able to play through his injuries for the duration of 2016.

It’s certainly not a bad year by the standards of most players on tour, but Nadal's 39-14 record, two titles and a doubles gold medal were a far cry from the dominance he once showed. He simply could not hold up for more high-intensity matches, even when he was able to play.

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Outlook for 2017

The Dark Knight will rise again, or at least that’s what his coach and uncle, Toni Nadal, recently remarked in an interview with the agency EFE, via Mundo Deportivo (translated by Tennis World):

"

They don't bother me, people can say and think what they want. It's normal they have doubts because we have them as well, even if we think that we will do well. My sons also ask me if Rafael will win a Grand Slam title again and I say yes, because I am convinced and I believe we will do it. We want to do as much as possible although we know it won't be easy.

"

Of course, Toni Nadal made similar remarks late in December 2015 to Mark Hodgkinson of ESPN.com, insisting his nephew could win the Australian or French Open or even Wimbledon.

Yes for 2017? Well, it’s possible, but not probable. The Dark Knight will need the perfect storm of superhero strength and health, optimum timing and ultimate confidence. He needs to rediscover his long-lost forehand that formerly bludgeoned his opponents. He needs to hold his serve with far greater regularity. Somehow, he must run and not be tired and track down impossible shots with greater quickness and defense.

Yeah, he probably needs a red cape with an "S" shield.

Then there’s the reality of a younger, bolder ATP tour with plenty of fearless players who can batter Nadal’s defense. Thiem, Alexander Zverev, Lucas Pouille and Nick Kyrgios have already gone toe-to-toe with the aging Dark Knight.

He will also have to defeat the likes of Nishikori, Wawrinka, Del Potro, Djokovic and new No. 1 Murray. At this time, Nadal is looking up at all of them. And maybe Federer comes back with a vengeance.

Even Nadal's most likely chance at a 15th major title, the French Open, requires him to be a much better player than he was at Monte Carlo and Barcelona in 2016. It probably would not even be enough to play like it’s French Open 2014.

Realistically, Nadal will hope to be healthy to play between 60 and 70 matches, snag a Masters title at Monte Carlo, Madrid or Rome and have a great draw, fresh legs and Lady Luck to steer him on French Open clay for one more trip down memory dominance.

It doesn’t seem likely at this moment, but there’s always hope with a legend, especially the Dark Knight, whose entire history means coming back from the dead for one more epic victory.