Novak Djokovic Faces a Long Road to Return to Dominance

Many tennis observers believe world No. 2 Novak Djokovic is still the best player in the world even as rival Andy Murray takes all the late-year spoils with his incredible play. It’s part of the puzzling Djokovic narrative garnering increased attention and scrutiny.

Consider Djokovic’s domination from 2015 through to the French Open 2016 was possibly the greatest streak of the Open era for a six-majors period. The response from media and tennis fans was often indifferent or underappreciated. Many complained that it was all too easy for the Serb and that he was boring for tennis. He had eradicated all rivalries.

But the "Fall of Djokovic" has suddenly become a much more interesting story to the public than his heroics in defeating Roger Federer and Murray on his way to holding the Grand Slam. Longtime respected tennis writer Peter Bodo of ESPN called it a "great unraveling," citing evidence from the Serb’s more impatient tennis to his motivational struggles. 

The decline came so unexpectedly, like a thief in the night. Nobody predicted a precipitous drop at Wimbledon, a first-round defeat at the Olympics, an injury-riddled loss at the U.S. Open final and the evaporation of his Asia-Paris-London trifecta.

How could the decline and fall of the Djokovic empire occur? Will he reestablish his reign?

What Goes Up Must Come Down

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Last June, many thought Djokovic would continue his legendary pace, perhaps for a few more years on the way to surpassing Federer’s 17 career major titles.

Our outlook at Bleacher Report was more cautious. Three days after Djokovic won his 12th major on his long-suffering podium at Roland Garros, we asked some tough questions in "How Long Will Novak Djokovic's Grand Slam Window Stay Open?":

• "Djokovic probably still has bottles of French champagne sitting in the ice bucket, but that does not mean it will be easy for the major titles to keep flowing into his trophy case. He is focused and loves to win, but there’s only so long a champion can remain the greatest."
• "...it’s ridiculous to believe Djokovic will simply add six or eight more of these majors.”
• "There’s always a Jiri Vesely waiting in the opening rounds or a tireless Murray pushing so hard to get that next huge win."
• "Getting that very next major championship might prove to be the most difficult one yet for Djokovic just when it seems like he cannot be beat.”
• "But it’s more likely he (Djokovic) will slow down. Maybe he only wins one major in 2017 and 2018.”
• "There’s a long way to go, even until Wimbledon when misfortunes can turn as quickly as a misstep on slick grass. Will he stay healthy and fresh? Can he escape poor matches and hot opponents? Will he be playing pantheon tennis by 2017 or even by September’s U.S. Open?"

The lesson is that things are never that simple in tennis, and anything can turn on a dime. But even recent history has told this tale all too often to be ignored.

Pete Sampras was suddenly too old to keep up with Marat Safin and Lleyton Hewitt at the dawn of the new millennium; Federer dismantled Murray in the 2010 Australian Open final to extend his last wave of dominance, but would only add one major trophy more than two years later; and Rafael Nadal’s blistering 2010 was quickly doused by the rise of Djokovic’s first peak.

Is there a chance Djokovic has one more echo of dominance, something akin to Federer 2009 or Nadal 2013?

Yes, but it won’t be easy and will likely be a briefer period, perhaps two or three more majors finals before his body slows down and a younger king inevitably rises.

Return to Glory

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On the surface, Djokovic’s return to dominance is filled with formidable opposition. Murray is at his peak and for the first time has the upper hand for No. 1.

The Scot can pad his lead at the top if Djokovic does not win the Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, Madrid and the French Open. Unless Murray suffers injuries or becomes afflicted with his own bouts of burnout, the former world No. 1 will likely be chasing him to July.

There are other big hitters who are making it tougher on Djokovic and Murray. Stan Wawrinka is no stranger to winning big matches; Juan Martin del Potro is poised for a top-10 run in 2017; world No. 3 Milos Raonic could be ready to win his first major; and one or more younger stars like Dominic Thiem, Nick Kyrgios and Alexander Zverev might rise to the ranks of major contenders.

Djokovic knows the stakes better than anyone, per his comments to the ATP World Tour:

"

Nothing is eternal. I know there are other players coming up and present players that are getting stronger. I'm trying to do the same thing. Sometimes it works. Sometimes it doesn't. All in all, it's one great lesson that you have to accept and move on hopefully as a wiser person and as a better player.

"

But there’s also plenty of optimism for Djokovic fans. Even when he’s struggled, the talent and shotmaking is there. He’s had plenty of promising streaks with recent wins over Thiem, Raonic and Kei Nishikori. Imagine when he gets back into the zone and plays with renewed energy and purpose?

Djokovic has a brief offseason to train and lock in for another surge. He will be rested and motivated after feeling the pain, and perhaps embarrassment, of letting up. He knows he can’t take this for granted, and he’s going to fight with every inch of his elastic frame. He’s got the mind of a champion and has often come back in the past after periodic lulls (2012-14).

Best of all, he’s got his favorite part of the year coming up, including January’s Australian Open, to get him on track once again.

While Murray takes his bows and becomes the new target, Djokovic can plot his return with esoteric bullpen sessions and appeals to the one critic he must answer most of all—himself.