ATP World Tour Finals 2016 Showdown: Murray vs. Djokovic Preview, Prediction

Andy Murray vs. Novak Djokovic is the matchup most people wanted to see in the final of the ATP World Tour Finals in London. It's also the ending this topsy-turvy season deserves.

This marks the first time the year-end No. 1 ranking will be determined in the finale of the ATP finals, between the top two players. 

With the year-end No. 1 ranking on the line, Sunday's final between these familiar foes will bring the 2016 tennis season to a dramatic end. It's a winner-take-all scenario for Murray and Djokovic.

Murray is trying to win his first ATP final and 24th consecutive match. Djokovic is trying to finish No. 1 for the third year in a row. 

Saturday, in the semifinals, Murray defeated Milos Raonic in an epic 5-7, 7-6 (5), 7-6 (9) battle. Djokovic cruised by Kei Nishikori 6-1, 6-1. 

After his win, an exhausted Murray told the BBC's Piers Newbery, "I didn't expect to play a long one with someone with a serve like Milos. I'm tired. I've played so much tennis over the last few months. I'll give it my best effort—the best of what I have."

The final will feature the former No. 1 Djokovic, the guy who dominated the first half of the season, and Murray, the man who chased him down this fall.  

Will Murray, the newly minted No. 1 player, retain his place at the top, or will Djokovic, the most dominant man on the tour for the last two years, reset his reign?   

The following is a preview and prediction for the ATP final. 

Murray at the Finals

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Andy Murray remains tense during a third-set tie breaker in the ATP World Tour Finals.

The semifinals match between Raonic and Murray featured more twists and turns than an Formula One race. It was a tight contest, with both men finding it hard to penetrate the other's serve. That was until the third set.

Raonic broke Murray, who was serving for the match at 5-4. Then after getting another break at 5-5, Murray was broken again. The match went into a tiebreak, where Murray outlasted Raonic 11-9. It was the longest three-set match in Murray's career. 

Friday, needing only to win a set to reach the semifinals, Murray defeated Stan Wawrinka 6-4, 6-2 in his third round-robin match. 

Despite his No. 1 ranking, Murray appeared to land in the tougher side of the draw, in the John McEnroe group with Marin Cilic, Wawrinka and Nishikori. 

Djokovic at the Finals

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Novak Djokovic smiles after defeating David Goffin at the 2016 ATP World Tour Finals.

Meanwhile, Djokovic landed in a group with two players—Gael Monfils and Dominic Thiem—who were making their ATP finals debut. He ended up facing a third, David Goffin, who replaced Monfils after the Frenchman withdrew with an injury. 

Djokovic breezed by Nishikori in the semifinals. His toughest match was a 7-6 (6), 7-6 (5) win over the big-serving Raonic, who squandered a set point. 

Djokovic has been steady, except for a couple of emotional outbursts. After his win over Raonic, Djokovic told ESPN's Nicolas Atkin, "I have never felt unbeatable and I never will...I don't feel vulnerable." 

Who Has the Historic Edge?

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Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray shake hands after a match at the 2015 Shanghai Masters.

Djokovic leads the head-to-head 24-10. Their last match was at the 2016 French Open, where Djokovic captured his first title at Roland Garros with a 3-6, 6-1, 6-2, 6-4 win over Murray. 

It was just a few weeks after Murray had defeated Djokovic at the Rome Masters. Djokovic has won five of their last six meetings. The last time Murray beat Djokovic two times in a row was back in 2012, the year Murray reached the final at Wimbledon and won the U.S. Open. 

Djokovic is 5-0 against Murray on indoor hard courts. 

Biggest X-Factors

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Andy Murray signs autographs after winning his semifinals match at the 2016 ATP World Tour Finals in London.

The British crowd will be a huge X-factor. Murray enjoys playing for and in front of his countrymen. 

It just depends on how he handles the crowd. The Brits and coach Ivan Lendl in the stands could provide calming support for Murray when he faces tough situations, such as when he dropped his serve twice against Raonic while trying to serve it out. 

Or the pressure for playing for country could make him tight. As Tennis.com's Steve Tignor wrote, "The UK native is always wound a little more tightly at the World Tour Finals in London. Something about the crowd, the court and the competition never allows him to relax."

Fatigue could also be a big factor. Murray has played far more tennis than Djokovic in the second part of the year and just finished a grueling semifinals match. Meanwhile, Djokovic waltzed into the final.  

Murray Will Win If...

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Andy Murray hits a forehand during the semifinals of the 2016 ATP World Tour Finals in London.

Murray has to stay aggressive. If he gets too passive, Djokovic will lull him into endless baseline rallies, which could magnify any issues with fatigue. 

Murray has to put more power behind his second serve, an improved weapon that has been instrumental in his rise to No. 1.

Speaking of the serve, Murray has to get at least 60 percent of his first serves in. Djokovic is a much better returner than Raonic and will pounce on any second serve. 

He also needs to sneak in a few drop shots when Djokovic is glued to the baseline. Djokovic hates being forced out of a rhythm, and mixing it up will give Djokovic more to think about. 

Djokovic Will Win If...

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Novak Djokovic serves during a match at the 2016 ATP World Tour Finals in London.

For the first time in a long while, the pressure will not be on Djokovic.

If Djokovic keeps that in mind and comes out loose and swinging, he could put Murray on his heels right away.  

Djokovic must attack Murray's second serve. He also has to ignore the noise coming from the crowd, which will be solidly behind its favorite son. 

The 12-time Grand Slam champion has a 24-10 record against Murray for a reason; it's a good matchup for him. He needs to remember that, play his game and dictate play. 

Prediction

Kirsty Wigglesworth/Associated Press

Andy Murray celebrates his win over Milos Raonic in the semifinals of the ATP World Tour Finals.

Murray has never won an ATP finals title. It's his first trip to the final.

Djokovic is trying to win his fifth consecutive title. 

Djokovic has never lost to Murray on indoor hard courts and is 3-1 against Murray this year. Those stats point to a lock for Djokovic, right? 

Any other year, maybe, but although this has largely been Djokovic's season, it's Murray's time.

In a year in which the Cleveland Cavaliers came back from a 3-1 deficit to win the NBA Championship and break a city-wide title curse and the Chicago Cubs ended a 108-year-old drought, it's Murray's chance to do the improbable.

It will be tight, but Murray will prevail and remain No. 1.