Men's Tennis' Big 4 Are More Vulnerable Than Ever Heading into 2017

When Novak Djokovic announced an elbow injury forced him to withdraw from Beijing’s China Open, it was another sign the World No. 1 is not ready to assume the dominance that destroyed the ATP for five major titles from 2015 through French Open 2016. Add the elbow to the sore left wrist and hurt right shoulder that ultimately factored in his loss at the U.S. Open final.

Meanwhile, Wimbledon champion Andy Murray should be hot on Djokovic’s tail for the year-end No. 1 ranking. He trails by 2,055 points in the Race to London, and a torrid finish ahead could snatch this honor away from an ailing Djokovic.

Except Murray strained his thigh during Davis Cup competition a couple of weeks ago, and he might be more likely to limp down the stretch to the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals.

Spanish legend Rafael Nadal is now three years removed from winning the year-end title. These days he’s trying to hold on to the No. 8 position to qualify for the WTF. All considered, he has done a fine job just making it back after being sidelined for more than two months between the French Open and Olympics, but even his biggest fans might no longer see a silver lining with encouraging efforts.

And Roger Federer? Wimbledon was the end of his injury-troubled year that included knee surgery and back problems. He won’t be back until Australia 2017, at the earliest.

Tennis has enjoyed more than a decade of legendary exploits from this quartet of modern champions, commonly known as the Big Four, but their time is fading into the sunset. Even the reigning Djokovic has come face-to-face with his own mortality.

Nobody’s ready to write their obituary, but collectively they are more vulnerable than ever. How will the last tournaments of 2016 be an omen for the future?

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The Conundrum Facing Novak and Andy

Djokovic is the king of the ATP, and health permitting, he could win several more major titles to add to his dozen giant trophies. But his slender frame has spent more than a decade sliding and scrambling with an offensive and defensive combination that has never been seen. He’s a race car refusing to slow down. There has to be a price for this, and the warning light is now on.

The Serb has never been one to back away, even with threatening injuries, and he especially does not want to relinquish his throne to rival Murray. The problem is, the harder he pushes to stay ahead of Murray in the upcoming weeks, the more mileage he racks up, possibly wearing down his recovering body before he can defend his favored Australian Open in January.

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Murray has been the ultimate pursuer for an entire decade, willing to stay in the race but ever trailing the greater accomplishments of Federer, Nadal and Djokovic. He chases down shots with reckless persistence and gets back on track after tumbling into sideboards of disappointment that would have finished off lesser talents.

Now he’s inched closer to Djokovic, but he needs a pit stop. Will he throw caution to the wind and force his fatigued body to play near-perfect tennis for a chance at chasing down No. 1?

They keep one eye on each other, and this has elevated their training and commitment to be great champions, but maybe they are destined to destroy each other. Will they suffer the consequences of more fatal wounds and diminish their chances to dominate 2017?

Swan Songs for Rafa and Fed

Nadal’s troubled 2015 could be summed up by his rapidly declining results and struggles with confidence. By his illustrious past, he was a bust in the majors, and it drove him to finish the post-U.S. Open tour through Asia and Europe with deep runs at Beijing, Shanghai, Switzerland, Paris and the WTF. Then he refused to sit still in December, and he went after exhibition cash in the showcase International Premier Tennis League.

By early 2016, Nadal had some ups and downs. He won Monte Carlo and Barcelona, and he looked strong at the French Open until his left-wrist injury forced him out of action.

Should Nadal have paced himself late last year?

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The most important takeaway is he might want to reconsider just how much tennis he is willing to play in October 2016. Another December touring Asia’s IPTL is probably not the wisest choice if he wants to compete for the Australian Open title and ultimately hoist up a few more clay-court titles in the spring. The 2017 French Open might be his last chance to ride off into the sunset with major No. 15.

But he could jeopardize that chance if he endures too much wear and tear to close 2016.

Federer’s problem could be too much rest and not enough youth in his 35-year-old body. Will his knee, back and body hold up to get the conditioning and timing he needs to realistically compete at the 2017 Australian Open?

Furthermore, the Swiss will be hurt by lower seedings at tournaments. While he might relish the challenge of knocking off tough players earlier in draws, the accumulative effects could be fatal for his chance to win Wimbledon 2017. The right amount of work and energized health will be crucial if he is to challenge for one last major title.

Younger Pack Ready to Close In?

Of course the tour does not entirely consist of four players, even if it seems everyone else is orbiting their star. Veteran Stan Wawrinka bruised his way to the U.S. Open title at Djokovic's expense, and he remains a giant big-match player for the upcoming year.

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While nobody is holding their breath, the future could arrive for Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori, Dominic Thiem, Nick Kyrgios, Alexander Zverev or even the underachieving Grigor Dimitrov. They have paid their dues to various degrees, and they know the Big Four are weakening, if only to give them more hope they can compete for the major prizes in tennis.

So the Asian swing in October just might foreshadow who can make a pitch to take on the Big Four in 2017 and topple their fading dynasties.

Most of all, it will depend on Djokovic’s health and confidence. If he is at his best, all bets are off. If he stumbles, the footsteps trailing his legend could become a merciless stampede.