Serena's Stunning 2016 US Open Upset Ends Her Reign as No. 1, but for How Long?

Serena Williams never gives in, even when she’s hobbling on an injured left knee in the semifinals of the 2016 U.S. Open. There she was, trying to get to the final over big-serving upstart Karolina Pliskova, but her body was unable to cooperate two straight nights against two top young players in the WTA.

On a muggy New York evening that topped 80 degrees, Serena’s streak of 186 consecutive weeks as the world's No. 1 player finally came to an end. (No. 2 Angelique Kerber ascended the throne before her warm-ups in the semifinal at Arthur Ashe Stadium.)

Oddly enough, the Serena streak will remain in the record books alongside Steffi Graf’s 186 weeks at No. 1, as will her 22 career major titles. (There’s still time for Serena to get at least one more major.)

There’s a lot to admire about Serena’s No. 1 streak, and now is the best time to step back and appreciate just how dominant and determined she was for more than three-and-a-half years.

Will Serena make it back to No. 1 soon and perhaps get another mini-streak to catch Graf’s 377 weeks, or will she bow out with 309 career weeks at the top?

The Serena Streak of 186

Go back to February 18, 2013. Serena replaced Victoria Azarenka for the No. 1 ranking, and the top 10 players were listed as follows, according to WTA Tennis:

1. Serena Williams
2. Victoria Azarenka
3. Maria Sharapova
4. Agnieszka Radwanska
5. Li Na
6. Angelique Kerber
7. Sara Errani
8. Petra Kvitova
9. Samantha Stosur
10. Caroline Wozniacki

It’s staggering to note that Azarenka and Sharapova are currently not playing on the WTA tour. Li Na retired in 2014, and Kerber was not even on the radar as a future No. 1 player.

To put in perspective Serena’s 186 weeks at No. 1, none of the other top 10 players from that day's rankings would stay inside the top 10 every week during Serena’s stranglehold at the top.

In February 2013, most tennis fans had not even heard of Simona Halep, Garbine Muguruza, Madison Keys, Eugenie Bouchard or Karolina Pliskova.

Serena Williams won nine Grand Slam titles that were instrumental in her time at the top, beginning with Wimbledon and the U.S. Open in 2012, both of which were the foundation of getting her back to the top for the sixth time in her career. That’s nine of 18 majors stretching back to 2012 Wimbledon, including a second "Serena Slam" when she held every major title from the 2014 U.S. Open through 2015 Wimbledon.

There have been other great major streaks, such as Martina Navratilova winning 14 majors in six years (1982-87), Steffi Graf winning eight majors in nine attempts (1988-90) and winning 10 of 15 majors (1993-96) and Monica Seles winning seven majors in nine attempts (1991-93), even though she skipped 1991 Wimbledon.

Serena's streak is unique because she started it at age 31; she turns 35 years old in two weeks. Even the ageless Navratilova had peaked by age 31.

Serena’s streak was 186 of her 309 career weeks at the top. That’s 60 percent of her career weeks at No. 1. It’s safe to say that nobody will ever demonstrate this kind of durability and dominance in her mid-30s ever again.

Dominant and Durable

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Take Serena’s world-class talent and add in her ability to play under pressure and win big matches. Be sure that she is able to train and improve her fitness and training in her 30s—a time when most athlete superstars have trouble with injuries and recovery.

Make no mistake, Serena has dealt with all kinds of injuries, but she’s been resilient. She has kept playing and competing, not allowing anyone to approach her excellence.

Injuries and other factors finally caught up to her otherwise spectacular run once again in 2016, and a little luck could have kept the streak alive:

• Had she not lost a tight 2016 Australian Open final to Kerber, the No. 1 ranking would still be Williams', and perhaps the German would not have gained the momentum that pushed her to the top. (Kerber also erased a match point in the first round. Had she lost that point, her story would not be written.)
• If the rains had not washed away a couple of days at Roland Garros, Serena would not have been depleted in the French Open final after playing four days in a row. That’s more important to an older player and was certainly a factor for Muguruza’s title, though we should take nothing away from the Spaniard.
• Suppose Serena had not played in the Olympics and come away with a sore shoulder that cost her 1,000 points by not playing the Western and Southern Open at Cincinnati.
• Or maybe Serena did not have to play with a sore left knee at the U.S. Open and take on Pliskova just a night after a grueling match against Halep.

All of this illustrates just how awesome and durable the Serena story has been. To get to No. 1 is a rare achievement. To stay there for 186 consecutive weeks takes more than just talent. Her heart and will is the standard of the WTA and equally responsible for her legend.

Return to No. 1?

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Serena can return to No. 1, perhaps very soon, but there are a few things to watch.

• If Kerber loses the U.S. Open final to Pliskova, her margin over Serena will be 980 points. If she wins, she will lead by 1,680 points.
• Serena does not have any points to defend over the next two months, but Kerber picked up a modest 1,215 points in 2015.
• Kerber will be either 50 or 750 points ahead of Serena for the Road to Singapore, meaning that if the American comes in and wins a couple of big titles like Beijing and the year-end tournament at Singapore, she can finish the year at No. 1.
• Look to Serena’s injuries and motivation. Will she take the next two months off as she did one year ago? Will she want to chase after No. 1, or will she rest up and pace herself again for the majors in 2017? There’s a good chance that she will choose not to chase Kerber all the way to Singapore.

The U.S. Open still needs to crown either Kerber or Pliskova, and the future of the No. 1 ranking is a bit uncertain with so many of the other contenders like Muguruza and Halep either inconsistent or unable to sustain the physical and mental demands of being dominant, let alone being "Serena dominant."

It’s been a long journey as the No. 1 player, and it might have temporarily come to an end, but that takes nothing away from her historical accomplishments.

Serena’s approaching 35 years old, but when healthy and rolling, she is still the best player in the game and the standard others will be held to in the decades to come.