US Open 2016 Women's Final: Pliskova vs. Kerber Preview, Predictions

The 2016 U.S. Open women's final features a player who will be the WTA Tour's new world No. 1 against a first-time Grand Slam finalist. 

Angelique Kerber, the provisional No. 1, defeated Caroline Wozniacki 6-4, 6-3, while Karolina Pliskova upset Serena Williams 6-2, 7-6 (5) in semifinals action Thursday night at Flushing Meadows, New York. 

At age 28, Kerber becomes the oldest player to debut at No. 1 and the first German to hold the top spot since Steffi Graf. She's also the fifth player to reach her first three Grand Slam finals in one year. The last to do so was Martina Hingis in 1997.

If she defeats Pliskova, Kerber would finish the year with two Grand Slam titles, joining Serena and Venus Williams, Maria Sharapova, Victoria Azarenka and Svetlana Kuznetsova as the only active singles players on the tour with more than one major title. Hingis, who has five Grand Slam titles, only plays doubles.

After her win over Wozniacki, Kerber told Pam Shriver on the ESPN broadcast that she hopes to get revenge against Pliskova.

Meanwhile, the Czech Republic player gets a chance to take out two world No. 1s in one tournament. 

Per WTA Tennis, Pliskova said: "If I play Kerber tomorrow I'll know her very well. We played a lot of times. I lost to her; I won. So I will be ready for anything. That's a final of a Grand Slam, so anything is possible. Of course, probably nerves from both sides...But I will just do anything to win the title here."

No matter who wins, someone's making history; either Kerber will have her first U.S. Open title or Pliskova will become a first-time Slam champion.

Pliskova at the US Open

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Karolina Pliskova clinches fist during semifinal win at the 2016 U.S. Open.

Pliskova paved her road to the finals with a series of firsts. It was her first time defeating Venus or Serena Williams, and she beat them both in one tournament. It was also her first trip beyond the third round at a Grand Slam. 

In the semifinals, Pliskova shocked the 22-Grand Slam champion, taking the first set 6-2 without giving up a break point. After Williams mounted a comeback in the second set, the Czech remained calm and forced the tiebreak. 

Previously, she demolished Ana Konjuh, 6-2, 6-2 in the quarterfinals. 

Pliskova's toughest test came in the fourth round against Venus Williams. The world No. 11 was down 1-3 in the second set, having dropped the first 4-6. She faced match point at 4-5 in the third but forced the tiebreak where she finished Venus off.

Kerber at the US Open

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Angelique Kerber hits a backhand during a match at the 2016 U.S. Open.

Kerber never allowed Wozniacki the upper hand in their semifinal. The German jumped out to a 4-0 lead in the first set before her opponent won three games in a row to close the gap to 3-4. 

Kerber dominated long rallies and kept the pressure on Wozniacki's serve; the Dane never stood a chance. 

In her quarterfinal, Kerber defeated Roberta Vinci, who was a finalist last year. After winning a tight first set, 7-5, Kerber clinched the second without conceding a game.  

In the fourth round, the German made routine work of two-time Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova, who loomed as a serious threat when the draw came out. However, Kerber won 6-3, 7-5.

Kerber dropped just two games in total during her first two matches.

Who Has the Historic Edge?

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Karolina Pliskova and Angelique Kerber shake hands after competing in the finals at the 2016 Western and Southern Open.

Kerber leads the head-to-head 4-3. However, Pliskova scored a big win over the German at the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati last month. A win there would have given the 28-year-old the world No. 1 ranking then. 

Pliskova vanquished Kerber, 6-3, 6-1, in shocking fashion. The Australian Open champion appeared exhausted, having just competed at the Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro where she reached the gold-medal round.

Pliskova, meanwhile, skipped the Olympics to rest up for a run at the U.S. Open.

The Biggest X-Factors

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Karolina Pliskova serves during a match at the 2016 U.S. Open.

The biggest X-factors will be Pliskova's serve and Kerber's nerves. 

The German will be playing in her third Grand Slam final this year, and the first without Serena Williams across the net from her. How she handles being the front-runner will be vital. Previously this year, she succumbed to the weight of the moment against Pliskova in Cincinnati and against Monica Puig in Rio.

Against Williams, she had nothing to lose because few expected her to win—pressure is different when you're the favorite. 

How Pliskova serves will impact how much pressure Kerber feels. If the 24-year-old comes out firing aces and winners like she did in Cincinnati, she could force her opponent into taking more chances on her second serve. And Kerber got a bit tight when serving for the match against Wozniacki.

Pliskova Will Win If...

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Karolina Pliskova serves during a match at the U.S. Open.

Pliskova's biggest weapon is her serve, and she leads the WTA with most aces. She gave up just one break point in her match against Serena Williams. 

Ed McGrogan of Tennis.com wrote: "If I had asked you before the match which player would convert 20 of her first 22 first-serve points, the answer wouldn’t just have been obvious; the question would have been insulting. Only someone who possesses the serving prowess of Williams could record such numbers. Yet it was Pliskova...who dominated from the stripe, winning 84 percent of her first-serve points on the evening."

If her serve is on point, it puts so much pressure on her opponent. She has to continue serving as well as she did against Serena Williams.

Pliskova must also avoid getting into long rallies with Kerber, who is faster and healthier than Serena. The big serve, quick winner, one-two punch gives the Czech her best chance against Kerber.

Kerber Will Win If...

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Angelique Kerber sprints to the ball during a match at the 2016 U.S. Open.

Kerber is the more experienced player—and the better athlete. Despite being the favorite and new world No. 1, she has to get off to a quick start.

Pliskova never backed down against arguably the greatest closer in tennis history, and she beat Kerber just a few weeks ago. 

Kerber can't control whether Pliskova goes on an ace-serving roll, but she can dictate play with her speed and groundstrokes. The German needs to exploit her opponent's poor lateral movement.

If she can get Pliskova on the run and extend rallies, the Czech is more likely to blink first.

Prediction

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Angelique Kerber celebrates winning her semifinals match at the U.S. Open.

Kerber has a chance to close out the Grand Slam season by besting Williams in the rankings, the singles race and in major tournaments won this year. 

She faltered against Pliskova in Cincinnati, but don't expect her to do that here. The German is on fire and playing with confidence. 

Getting a break against the Czech won't be easy, but it can't be tougher than overtaking Serena Williams as world No. 1 and reaching three Grand Slam finals in one year.

Expect plenty of hard-hit winners and spectacular passing shots from both women—and Kerber to win in three sets.