US Open 2016 Men's Semifinals: Wawrinka vs. Nishikori Preview, Predictions
When the 2016 U.S. Open began, many experts and fans projected reigning Wimbledon and Olympics champion Andy Murray to soar to another final. Playing the best tennis of his career, he was challenging Novak Djokovic for "top dog" status and the No. 1 ranking.
The sizzling Scot appeared well on his way to making those visions a reality. Until he ran into Kei Nishikori.
In a wacky quarterfinal that featured a rain delay, random noises from the stadium's PA system and a rogue moth (yes, that actually happened), Nishikori held his nerve and outlasted Murray 1-6, 6-4, 4-6, 6-1, 7-5 in a thrilling war of attrition.
They traded breaks back-and-forth throughout, but it was Nishikori who secured the last one as he catapulted into his second U.S. Open semifinal in three years.
He'll face the No. 3 seed Stan Wawrinka, who's also no stranger to this stage. Working his way past a resurgent Juan Martin del Potro in a match that lasted well beyond midnight, Wawrinka triumphed 7-6 (5), 4-6, 6-3, 6-2.
In those early-morning hours, Stan the Man summoned enough energy to keep the crowd on its feet. Del Potro eventually ran out of steam, and Wawrinka pounced on the Argentine.
“It was about being tough mentally, staying in the match and doing the right thing," David Waldstein of the New York Times quoted him as saying afterward.
His showdown with Nishikori will present a different type of challenge.
Here's what to expect when these two collide.
Nishikori at US Open 2016
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Nishikori didn't get off to the smoothest of starts to begin this tournament, needing four sets in each of his first three matches to get by Benjamin Becker, Karen Khachanov and Nicolas Mahut, respectively.
Avoiding the upset bug, he dug deeper against the deadly serves of Ivo Karlovic in the fourth round, securing a much-needed straight-sets win. It's good Nishikori conserved some energy there because he'd be in for a taxing quarterfinal.
Coming into his match with world No. 2 and title hopeful Murray, he brought a 1-7 record against the Scot. In all those meetings, Nishikori had only managed to win four total sets.
From the start, it looked like history would repeat itself when Murray took the first set 6-1. But Nishikori heeded the wake-up call of that lopsided score, and benefiting from a rain delay in the second set, he surged back into the match.
Playing more aggressively and frustrating Murray by coming to the net frequently, Nishikori broke serve nine times, including three crucial ones in the final set.
After nearly four hours, Nishikori raised his arms in celebration in front of a stunned Arthur Ashe Stadium.
“There were many up and downs, but I tried to [stay] calm," Nishikori told ATPWorldTour.com. "I think that's the most important thing I did today. Even though there were many up and downs I tried to stay tough."
That fighting spirit now has him on the verge of his second U.S. Open final in three years.
Wawrinka at US Open 2016
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Handed a tricky draw, Wawrinka has successfully navigated around several potential stumbling blocks and overcome his own inconsistency these last two weeks.
In the first round, he downed Fernando Verdasco (who's given him trouble in the past) in straight sets. Wawrinka followed up that win with a tougher-than-expected one over Alessandro Giannessi in his following match.
His stiffest test came in the third round when underdog Daniel Evans extended him to five sets. In a duel that spanned over four hours, Wawrinka benefited from 16 Evans double-faults, even saving a match point in the fourth-set tiebreak.
Battling himself as much as his opponent, Wawrinka edged out a 4-6, 6-3, 6-7 (6), 7-6 (8), 6-2 victory.
"It wasn't easy to stay calm with myself," Wawrinka told ATPWorldTour.com. "But in general, I think that was the key to the match."
Not his sharpest against Illya Marchenko in the fourth round, Wawrinka squandered a chance to serve out the match in straight sets. Eventually, he regained his footing and advanced in four sets.
Taking on equally big-hitting del Potro in the quarterfinal, Wawrinka targeted the backhand side and used his own to take control. As they traded body blows from the baseline, Wawrinka played the cleaner match and ended del Potro's run.
Just one more win separates him from a third major final.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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While Wawrinka and Nishikori have only played five previous times, their rivalry's been a competitive one.
And they already have history here in New York.
Wawrinka holds a 3-2 advantage, though his last win in the series came at the 2015 Australian Open. On hard courts, they're tied at two apiece, with Nishikori's most memorable victory coming on these very courts two years ago.
In their 2014 U.S. Open quarterfinal, Nishikori won a 3-6, 7-5, 7-6 (7), 6-7 (5), 6-4 marathon that lasted well over four hours. Coming on the heels of a daunting win over Milos Raonic in the previous round, Nishikori found enough strength to outlast Wawrinka and make his first (and only) Grand Slam final.
Recently, Nishikori overcame Wawrinka 7-6 (6), 6-1 in the Rogers Cup semifinals. By the middle of the second set, a physically hampered Wawrinka looked like he wanted to jet off the court.
Here's Wawrinka's opportunity to make amends for that gloomy day and get payback for their previous U.S. Open battle.
Biggest X-Factors?
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Nishikori may be the fitter player, but he also endured a more grueling quarterfinal.
Does he have enough energy in the tank for another physical match?
Against Wawrinka, he'll have to be ready for some long rallies as he scrambles and slides to neutralize his power. If Nishikori's legs are feeling heavy because of his epic win over Murray, Wawrinka could catch fire and hit him off the court. When he's in the zone, the Stanimal can make anyone look feeble.
The Swiss will have to worry about his own serve, however. Coming into this match, Nishikori's secured a staggering 30 breaks in five matches. Those stellar return numbers will put further pressure on a notoriously streaky player like Wawrinka.
Nishikori Will Win If...
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Once Nishikori figured out that he had to take the fight to Murray and not be as passive, he truly soared.
He'll have to do the same to stop Wawrinka.
Instead of getting pinned too far behind the baseline, Nishikori needs to hold his ground and try to win the battle of court positioning. He won't have to redline his shots, but staying consistently aggressive should coax errors from Wawrinka.
One area that helped carry Nishikori over Murray was his net play. Up there, he won 27 of 39 points. Whether through serve and volleys or approach shots, Nishikori inflicted damage by moving forward and letting his deft racket skills take over.
That would be a smart tactic to employ again to keep Wawrinka guessing.
Wawrinka Will Win If...
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With the ease in which Nishikori has broken his opponents' serve at this U.S. Open, Wawrinka is going to be under constant pressure to hold. Failure to do so could result in a rout if he's not careful.
So far, he's done a magnificent job with his serve through five rounds. In each of his previous matches, Wawrinka won at least 73 percent of points on his first serve and over 50 percent of all his second serves.
Surrendering only nine total breaks, he's done well in pressure situations and upped his power when necessary. Getting free points against a nimble returner like Nishikori is difficult, but it's vital for him to do so.
Shorter points favor the high-risk, high-reward style Wawrinka often employs. While Nishikori will try to take away his timing, Wawrinka has to stay on the constant offensive and avoid the lapses of concentration that plagued him when they met earlier this summer in Toronto.
Prediction
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If their last meeting here in New York is any indication, we should be in for quite a treat.
The power of Wawrinka versus the technical wizardry of Nishikori will provide a nice contrast in styles and keep the match entertaining. Only one man can prevail and play for the U.S. Open title.
This one is a tough call, but give the edge to Nishikori. He's played more consistently the last few months, and that win over Murray is the type of confidence booster you can't put a price on.
All tournament, Nishikori's frustrated opponents with his relentless defense, which he's now complementing with first-strike tennis. Perfect (5-0) against top-10 opponents in New York, he'll keep that streak going with a five-set win over Wawrinka.
It won't be easy, but Nishikori will advance to his second Grand Slam final and have another shot at taking home a career-defining prize.
All statistics are courtesy of ATPWorldTour.com unless otherwise noted.
Joe Kennard is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report.
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