Serena Williams Leaving No Doubt She's the US Open Favorite

So far so good for Serena Williams following her second-round victory over fellow American Vania King at the 2016 U.S. Open. The 6-3, 6-3 score might not have been her finest performance, but it was much more important for other reasons.

Serena, ranked No. 1 in the world for 186 weeks and counting, had to shoulder a few concerns about her health and readiness to win the U.S. Open. While she is typically the favorite at any tournament, she particularly enjoys the fast, hard courts at Flushing Meadows that enhance her big serve and powerful groundstrokes.

The biggest question was whether her sore right shoulder that had troubled her at the Olympics a few weeks ago would be healthy to deal her usual heavy heat. She had skipped Cincinnati’s prestigious Western & Southern Open to gain more rest and recovery, but the only way to allay the doubts was to play a couple matches with strong serving and great recovery from day to day.

It appears all is well. Serena said after the match, according to ESPN: "[The shoulder] is stable. I've just got to keep it like that. It's two matches in, and usually you want to be able to play seven matches. It's not even close to the halfway point. I definitely want to keep it as good as it can be."

For proof, Serena served up 13 aces and crushed 38 winners against King’s four winners. That’s the critical factor for her moving on as the favorite to win the championship. She needs to be able to dominate with her serve physically, which also gives her the psychological boost and confidence to hit through her opponents.

She’s answered the bell and is the unquestionable favorite.

Apple in 2015 to Oranges in 2016

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It’s important to contrast 2015 U.S. Open Serena to 2016 U.S. Open Serena. The outlook is more favorable now.

In 2015, Serena had seemed nearly invincible in big matches, winning the year’s first three majors, holding her second “Serena Slam” (meaning that she held all four majors at once including the 2014 U.S. Open) and looking like she could sweep the field.

She famously fell in the semifinals to veteran Roberta Vinci, but it had been a rocky road just to get to the semifinals. Looming like ominous rain clouds was the historic pressure of getting the calendar Grand Slam and living up to her tour domination.

Serena struggled to get through inspired challenges from qualifier Kiki Bertens in the second round, grind through fearless Bethanie Mattek-Sands in the third round, beat back talented future star Madison Keys in the fourth round and survive a hard-fought three-setter over big sister Venus in the quarterfinals. The toll had clearly extracted a lot of her emotional energy.

Then the shocking upset to the slight Vinci who created all manners of short shots, underspin, net play and slower changes of pace. Vinci had nothing to lose, and Serena clearly felt the weight of trying to ride out a lackluster performance that was anything but her usual confident self.

The coin has flipped. Serena came into the 2016 U.S. Open with media and fans wondering more about her shoulder. She’s responded with two easy matches that have effectively allowed her to regain more timing and match preparation without burning her stamina.

In a strange way, the shoulder might have given her something practical to overcome as she has made her way back to being the undisputed favorite. She’s able to comb through the details of playing smart tennis and fighting like an underdog. Coupled with her superstar talent, it’s a nearly unbeatable combination, provided the shoulder problem does not reappear.

"[The serve] was the best part of my game today," Williams added in ESPN, "So seeing that's what I did the least [well] coming into this tournament, it's a really good sign [that I was] able to serve well and [I'll] hopefully gain momentum with that."

The Open Road

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Looking ahead, Serena will be a heavy favorite in the next two rounds against Johanna Larsson and either Yaroslava Shvedova or Shuai Zhang (the surprising Zhang, ranked No. 51, resurrected her career in defeating Simona Halep and Madison Keys on her way to the Australian Open quarterfinals). That’s a much better proposition than last year.

Furthermore, Serena’s first two matches have left plenty of reserve. Her legs are likely fresh from time off after the Olympics, her shoulder is responding well in matches, and easy victories in the first week will pay dividends when the second week’s big matches occur. Freshness and energy could be doubly important for her 34-year-old body next week.

Serena’s going to need her serving and optimum recovery to hit through (likely) No. 5 Simona Halep in the quarterfinals. Rather than the fan and media expectations of 2015 when she was supposed to crush her opponents, Serena will be ready to take on the more directly competitive challenges of dueling with Halep and other possible semifinal and final opponents.

By then, there would be renewed talk of Serena’s opportunity to fend back Angelique Kerber and Garbine Muguruza for the No. 1 ranking. She could have the strength and timing to redeem 2015 and perhaps get major No. 23, moving past the legendary Steffi Graf for sole ownership of tennis’ most hallowed record.

Serena’s advantages are enhanced in North America, specifically New York, where she is beloved and where her top opponents must deal with boisterous fans, American foods and other idiosyncrasies that Serena has conquered.

Oh, and Serena has won the U.S. Open before—six times.

If she gets a seventh title in New York and 23rd career major, we might see her beaming smile and the relief of one more great career fulfillment. Five more matches to go.