Which Tennis Stars Have the Most to Gain by Winning the 2016 Rogers Cup?

The Rogers Cup is missing legends such as Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Serena Williams, but that only opens up more opportunity for the rest of the ATP and WTA fields. This tournament, the Canadian Open, is one of the 10 most important events of the year outside of the four majors.

While the young players have mostly been eliminated, it would be a satisfying trophy for a veteran, and it could mean a lot of momentum for the Olympics and the remainder of the U.S. Open series.

Which players can gain the most? We examine those who are in the top 10 and look at what it would mean for their ranking and career.

Novak Djokovic

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Novak Djokovic does not need the Rogers Cup to enhance his career; he already has three of them lined up on his crowded trophy shelf. He would probably rather win the Western & Southern Open in Cincinnati, the only Masters 1000 tournament he has not bagged.

This is one of the few big tournaments where Djokovic can actually improve his ranking by winning the title. Last year, he lost a grueling three-set match to Andy Murray, played too many doubles matches and was clearly fatigued for his final loss a week later against Federer in Cincinnati.

Now, though, Djokovic is looking at a field that does not have his top rivals, leaving Tomas Berdych, Milos Raonic and Stan Wawrinka as likely obstacles for what could be an easier title, and his first Rogers Cup since 2012.

He could add 400 ranking points for winning, while Murray loses his 1,000 points for not playing. It could help the Serb bolster a healthy 6,000-point lead over the world No. 2.

Kei Nishikori

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For all of his excellent tennis since 2014, Kei Nishikori has still come up short in the biggest 14 tournaments.

He was runner-up at the 2014 U.S. Open after defeating Djokovic. He lost the 2014 Madrid final to Rafael Nadal—no help from a troubled back—and he lost the 2016 Miami Open to the Serb.

Nishikori really needs a couple of Masters 1000 titles if he hopes to ramp up his career and become one of the top few contenders for majors. A Rogers Cup would be his biggest career title to date, and it would move him past Nadal and Wawrinka for No. 4 in the world.

This weekend is the perfect opportunity. Other big stars are gone and Nishikori is in the bottom half of the draw, away from Djokovic until a possible final.

This would be the kind of win that could be heard all the way around the world to Japan. It might even get him believing that he can clinch the U.S. Open.

Angelique Kerber

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Say this for Angelique Kerber, she has become one of the great grinders on the WTA, often peaking late in matches when the differences are slim. She survived Elina Svitolina on Thursday, and now the world No. 2 and Australian Open champion is moving on as the favorite to win a Premier Mandatory and Premier 5 title for the first time in her career.

The Rogers Cup would also help Kerber pull within about 1,000 points of Serena Williams and set up a bid for the No. 1 ranking at the U.S. Open.

There are tough matches ahead, so Kerber’s going to need her A-game. She’s an excellent defender and returner, but the lefty will need to prove she can play on faster hard courts with the offense needed to be the best player in the world.

Madison Keys

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It wasn’t easy, but Madison Keys got through Venus Williams and into the quarterfinals. She is the top-ranked player in her half of the draw, meaning that two strong matches could put her in the final for a possible chance against Kerber or Simona Halep.

It’s time for Keys to play as a favorite deep into a big tournament, but more importantly, this weekend is a great opportunity to capture her first Premier Mandatory and Premier 5 title.

The American could also move up a few more slots into the top 10 and show that she is ready to be linked with Garbine Muguruza for the rising future of tennis.

Or Keys could lose and continue to be in the mix with several other second-tier stars who hope to make a run at the U.S. Open. It’s similar to last year’s Rogers Cup breakthrough when Belinda Bencic showed that she was a young top-10 talent laying the foundation for a bright career.

There’s work to do, but Keys is ready.

Stan Wawrinka

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Two-time major winner Stan Wawrinka has been fading in 2016. It has been a gradual erosion, hardly dramatic to sports fans who look at the injury charts of Federer and Nadal or who followed Djokovic and Murray as French Open and Wimbledon champions.

Since Wawrinka captured Monte Carlo in 2014, he has not made it back to a Masters 1000 final. He is ranked No. 5, but Nishikori is threatening to pass him.

A Rogers Cup title could see Wawrinka move past Nadal and within striking distance of the absent Federer for No. 3 in the world.

Above all, Wawrinka needs to regain his unflappable confidence in big matches. He’s still capable of making a run at the U.S. Open, where he was a semifinalist in 2013, and he needs to send a message to other top-10 players and future stars that he’s going to be relevant for the foreseeable future.

Milos Raonic

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Canada would love for its top star Milos Raonic to hold up the Rogers Cup.

He’s been a big factor on the ATP tour for a few years now, including his runner-up Rogers Cup performance against Rafael Nadal in 2013, and he lost in Masters 1000 finals to Djokovic at 2014 Paris and 2016 Indian Wells.

The dirty little secret about Raonic’s rise is that he has not really bagged significant titles. Seven of his eight titles are level 250 tournaments, and only his 2014 Washington D.C. title was worth 500 ranking points for the winner.

Raonic needs to win big titles soon if he is to develop into a regular contender at majors.

It means he will probably need to slay Djokovic and complete the package against another hungry star who will be just as determined to pull in the Rogers Cup.

The Canadian fans could give Raonic that extra boost, but his serve needs to sizzle, his net play sparkle and his defense dazzle. Nobody backs into a Masters 1000 title.